Last week, I went 16-8-1 against the spread during Week 2 of the college football season.
I almost feel bad adding a picture of Mississippi State QB WIll Rogers on this post. I haven’t added it up, but there is a long streak of futility that I need to mention. When player’s photo is featured on my college football picks, their team either loses or they get injured. That being said, I may need to apologize to Quinn Ewers for last week’s inclusion.
Notre Dame and Texas A&M bother suffered stunning upsets last week. Will they bounce back this weekend?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 3 of the 2022-23 NCAA Football season (September 17th, 2022).
Miami (FL) at Texas A&M (-5.5) – My pick is Texas A&M Aggies
Miami (1-1 ATS) is coming off a 30-7 win over Southern Miss. Their defense destroyed Southern Miss’s running game. They only gained 24 yards on 23 carries, which is insane. Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke didn’t have an amazing game, but the offense did enough to win, so he leaned on the running game. Texas A&M (0-2 ATS) is coming off an embarrassing 17-14 home loss to Appalachian State. They were eighteen-point favorites and they only managed to tally 186 total yards. Appalachian State just drained the clock and had the ball for over 41 minutes. I don’t think Miami will be able drain the clock in the same way as App State. The Aggies know their Achilles Heel, so they will have some remedies this week. They will have more opportunities on offense and should cover this game at home.
Purdue at Syracuse (-2) – My pick is Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue (1-1 ATS) just demolished Indiana State 56-0, which was a nice palate-cleanser after losing a close game to Penn State in their opener. Purdue QB Aidan O’Connell put in a short workout and threw four touchdowns before halftime. He’s such an underrated passer and I expect him to play on Sundays next year. Syracuse (2-0 ATS) is coming off a 48-14 road win over UConn. It’s hard to learn much from that game since Connecticut is one of the worst FBS teams. I expect Syracuse will run the ball more, like they did in their 31-7 win over Louisville. I still think Purdue should be in a good position in this game. Syracuse appears to have a better defensive unit this year, but they will need to play very well to cover this game. I’m taking the points in this one and I wouldn’t be surprised if Purdue won this game outright.
California at Notre Dame (-10.5) – My pick is Notre Dame Fighting Irish
California (1-1 ATS) is coming off a 20-14 win over UNLV. It was an underwhelming outcome as Cal should have smoked them. Purdue-transfer QB Jack Plummer hasn’t been an impactful quarterback for the Golden Bears. I think their offense could have problems against good teams. Notre Dame (1-1 ATS) suffered an outright, upset loss to Marshall. It was a rather shocking result as Notre Dame played pretty well in their opening game against Ohio State. Their run defense needs to improve and they needed better overall play from QB Tyler Buchner, who suffered a major shoulder injury in the loss. Sophomore QB Drew Pyne will be the starter going forward. I’ve liked what I saw from him at times last season, but he didn’t get much work. I think Notre Dame will fare well with the more pro-style quarterback under center. I think the Irish will bounce-back in this one as they are better than last week’s outcome and I’m not sold on Plummer. I’m taking the Irish to cover at home.
Penn State at Auburn (+3) – My pick is Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State (2-0 ATS) stayed perfect on the year with their 46-10 win over Ohio. I continue to wait for QB Sean Clifford to collapse at some point. I did also think the same about former Pitt QB Kenny Pickett, and that clearly never happened. Clifford should be okay if he gets production from RB Nicholas Singleton. He struggled against Purdue, but turned it up against Ohio by gaining 179 yards on just ten carries with two touchdowns. Auburn (0-2 ATS) haven’t been able to live up to expectations. They were favored to beat Mercer by 30 points, but failed to cover by four points. In their second outing, they were favored over San Jose State by 24 points, but only won 24-16. I don’t think QB TJ Finley is the right guy for Auburn. He hasn’t done anything there that makes me confident that he will survive the SEC this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if they went with freshman QB Robby Ashford at some point. I’m taking Penn State to cover in this one.
BYU at Oregon (-3.5) – My pick is BYU Cougars
BYU (2-0 ATS) has impressed me early this season. They survived over Baylor in overtime with a 26-20 win. They couldn’t run the ball well, but QB Jaren Hall was able to do enough to get the win. BYU’s pass defense isn’t getting enough love this year. They will be a hard unit to move to ball against going forward. Oregon (1-1 ATS) just demolished Eastern Washington 70-14. It was an impressive win as EWU usually aren’t pushovers. The Ducks were able to wipe their 49-3 loss to Georgia out of their minds. Auburn-transfer QB Bo Nix rebounded after a bad game against the Bulldogs. This will happen with Nix as he is notorious for not showing up for big games. I’m taking the points in this game.
UL-Monroe at Alabama (-49) – My pick is Alabama Crimson Tide
Louisiana-Monroe (1-1 ATS) beat up on FCS Nicholls State with a 35-7 win in their home opener. I’m not going to go into a full analysis of the Warhawks, because I expect that this will be out of their control by the end of the first quarter. Alabama (1-1 ATS) are coming off a close-call in their 20-19 win over Texas. The Longhorns even lost their starting QB Quinn Ewers in this game and the Tide just weren’t able to pull away. Texas is a very good team, so I wasn’t surprised that Alabama couldn’t cover the lofty 21-point spread. I expect Bama QB Bryce Young will have a huge game and will be done for the day early in the third quarter. I’m taking Alabama to cover this game at home.
Mississippi State at LSU (+2.5) – My pick is Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State (2-0 ATS) are coming off a 39-17 road win over Arizona. MSU QB Will Rogers threw four passing touchdowns and eclipsed 300 yards in the win. I really like Rogers and he’s the perfect kind of quarterback in Mike Leach’s air raid offense. I also like Leach’s recruiting in recent years as he is getting better athletes in the SEC over the last few places he coached. LSU (1-1 ATS) won their home opener over Southern 65-17. In order for LSU to win games in the SEC, they will need to see improvement from QB Jayden Daniels. He has regressed after a great season in 2019-20 when he was at Arizona State. I expect that he will struggle against top SEC teams very soon. I think Mississippi State should be able to throw on LSU and cover this one.
SMU at Maryland (-3.5) – My pick is Maryland Terrapins
Southern Methodist (1-1) are coming off a 45-16 win over FCS Lamar. I’ve liked SMU QB Tanner Mordecai since early last year. He was collecting dust at Oklahoma, so transferring to SMU before last season was a smart decision. He has played against cupcake opponents so far, so Maryland will be his first true test. Maryland (1-1 ATS) travelled to Charlotte and got the 56-21 win. Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa took a leap last season and finished with a 24/11 TD-Int ratio. I feel that that is probably his ceiling, but Maryland would take another season with those numbers. This came should be a tight one, but I think Maryland’s passing offense is a little too much for SMU’s secondary. I’m taking Maryland to cover on Saturday.
Nevada at Iowa (-23.5) – My pick is Nevada Wolf Pack
Nevada (2-1 ATS) just suffered their first loss of the season and it came at the hands of Incarnate Word. It looks like a huge upset on paper, but Incarnate Word is not a bad team. IW QB Lindsey Scott Jr. is a pretty darn good quarterback. Nevada didn’t have an answer for him and they suffered a 55-41 loss. This loss definitely affected this betting line since no one knows anything about Incarnate Word. Iowa (0-2) have played two horrible offensive games to open the year. Their defense might be one of the best in the Big Ten, but it doesn’t do them much good when they’ve only scored one touchdown in two games. It might be time to pull QB Spencer Petras if he craps the bed in this one. I’m taking the points in this contest.
Marshall at Bowling Green (+16.5) – My pick is Marshall Thundering Herd
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game. Marshall (2-0 ATS) is coming off a huge upset with their 26-21 win at Notre Dame. They were able to run the ball and move the sticks against the Irish. They racked up 219 yards on the ground and stymied the Irish own running game. Bowling Green (0-2 ATS) is coming off a 59-57 overtime loss to Eastern Kentucky. BGSU is historically among the worst teams in the MAC and it appears that it will be another long year. I really wanted to bet against Marshall this week since I assumed they would be have a crappy betting line, but I really like this one. Marshall’s running game should be able to racked up some points against Bowling Green. I’m taking Marshall to cover on the road.
QUICK HITS
Oklahoma at Nebraska (+10.5) – My pick is Oklahoma
Western Kentucky at Indiana (-6.5) – My pick is Western Kentucky
Old Dominion at Virginia (-9.5) – My pick is Old Dominion
Akron at Tennessee (-47.5) – My pick is Tennessee
Michigan State at Washington (-3.5) – My pick is Washington
Pittsburgh at Western Michigan (+10.5) – My pick is Western Michigan
Louisiana Tech at Clemson (-34.5) – My pick is La Tech
Fresno State at USC (-12.5) – My pick is USC
Florida State at Louisville (+2.5) – My pick is Florida State
Cincinnati vs Miami (OH) (+22.5) – My pick is Miami (OH)
BONUS PICKS!
Arkansas State at Memphis (-14.5) – My pick is Memphis
UTEP at New Mexico (+2.5) – My pick is UTEP
Buffalo at Coastal Carolina (-13.5) – My pick is Coastal Carolina
South Alabama at UCLA (-15.5) – My pick is South Alabama
Troy at Appalachian State (-12.5) – My pick is App State
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 28-20-2
Follow us on Twitter @Sweetbob & ‘LIKE’ us on Facebook!
About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.