I went 8-6 against the spread in Week 6.
I had a rough start with my noon game picks, but was perfect in the afternoon slate of games. I want to thank the Cowboys for scoring a touchdown in overtime instead of just trying to get a field goal.
There are only 13 games on the schedule due to six teams being out on bye.
There are three games with double-digit point spreads. Will any of the favorites cover the large spreads?
How will Seattle QB Geno Smith fare in his second start with the team?
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 7 of the 2021 NFL season.
Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns (-3.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos
The Broncos are 3-3 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 34-24 home loss against the Raiders. The game was a bit out of hand by the fourth quarter and Denver made it a little more palatable by scoring two touchdowns in the final quarter. Bridgewater threw three touchdowns, but also threw three picks in the loss. The Browns are 3-3 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 37-14 home loss to the Cardinals. Cleveland lost RB Kareem Hunt (calf) for multiple games and QB Baker Mayfield further injured his non-throwing shoulder. They also have a laundry list of players with nagging, soft tissue injuries. A short week could make a huge difference in their level of play. I expect a somewhat low-scoring game. Both of these teams have a top-ten defense and are missing a couple pieces that could change their offense. Due to the short week, I’m taking the points.
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-7) – My pick is New England Patriots
The Jets are 1-4 outright and against the spread. They are coming off their bye week and lost 27-20 to the Falcons in their previous game. They hope to have fixed some of rookie QB Zach Wilson’s turnover issues with an extra week of study. The Patriots are 2-4 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 35-29 overtime home loss to the Dallas Cowboys. Pats rookie QB Mac Jones made a few mistakes late in regulation that allowed the Cowboys to make a comeback. Overall, the young quarterback made the best of a bad situation as he was facing one of the best defenses in the league. The Patriots and Jets met back in Week 2 when the Patriots won 25-6. Jones played a game manager role while Wilson threw four interceptions. The game was out of hand soon after halftime, so Jones wasn’t expected to make a lot of throws. I’m expecting a similar outcome in this game, so I’m taking the Patriots to cover at home.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are 4-2 outright and 3-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 34-11 road win against the Lions. Cincinnati cruised to a win as they held Detroit scoreless until the fourth quarter. Bengals QB Joe Burrow has improved weekly and is comfortable against above average defenses. The Ravens are 5-1 outright and 3-3- against the spread. They are coming off a 34-6 blowout home win against the Chargers. They held Chargers QB Justin Herbert to only 195 passing yards. Los Angeles only had 26 total rushing yards as well, so the defense played great across the board. The Bengals have a knack for keeping games close all season. They were only beaten by a field goal in both of their defeats. The Ravens blew out the Bengals in both of their meetings last season, but this year’s Cincy team is much better, so I’m taking the points.
Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins (+2.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are 2-3 outright and against the spread. They are coming off their bye week and beat the Jets 27-20 in their previous game. Atlanta’s offense was stagnant the first few weeks, but they found a spark when they started to include RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson more into the offense. The converted wide receiver is a crucial part of their offense because the traditional running game has been a struggle. The Dolphins are 1-5 outright and 2-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 23-20 loss to the Jaguars in London. They had QB Tua Tagovailoa back from injury, but his defense gave him zero help. It will be interesting to see how a team plays after playing in London and not receiving a bye week. Most of the teams that travel over there get their bye week the following week. The Falcons are in the exact opposite situation as they will be rested. I think that will be a huge factor in this one, so I’m taking the Falcons to cover on the road.
Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans (+5.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans
The Chiefs are 3-3 outright and 2-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-13 blowout win against the Washington Football Team. The game was tight until the second-half when Kansas City outscored them 21-0. The Chiefs are an average team when QB Patrick Mahomes turns the ball over. Their defense just isn’t good enough to combat those mistakes. The Titans are 4-2 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 34-31 home win against the Bills on Monday Night Football. The Bills defense just didn’t have an answer for RB Derrick Henry, who stiff-armed his way to three touchdowns. He will wear down a defense and then break a big gain. This could be a high-scoring game as both defenses have given up some big yards this year. The Chiefs have been good against the run of late, but they were smoked the first two weeks of the season. They haven’t played a team with a good running game in over a month. I think the Titans will keep this one tight, so I’m taking the points.
Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers (-9.5) – My pick is Washington Football Team
Washington is 2-4 outright and 1-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 31-13 home loss to the Chiefs. They played great in the first-half, but their defense collapsed late in the game. They need QB Taylor Heinicke to be a little more accurate going forward. The Packers are 5-1 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 24-14 road win against the Bears. They have won and covered in five-straight games, which is incredibly difficult to do in the NFL. Their running game is a big part of their offensive plan with two capable running backs wearing out defenses. This betting line is a little bloated due to the recent streak of Packers covers and WFT’s lack of covers. This could trip of bettors riding the Packers hot streak. The Footballers are a better team than they’ve shown on the field at this point. I’m taking the points on Sunday.
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants (+2.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are 3-3 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 34-28 home overtime loss to the Vikings. Panthers QB Sam Darnold didn’t play well in this game as he only completed 17 of 41 passes for 207 yards. The Vikings just had drives end on failed third downs. The Panthers had a bend and don’t break defensive effort. The Giants are 1-5 outright and 2-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 38-11 blowout home loss against the Rams. The Giants are banged-up and QB Daniel Jones threw three picks with no touchdowns. He tried to spam the ball to WR Sterling Shepard with short passes, but that didn’t lead to much. The Giants have a long list of questionable players on the injury report. They could be without WR Kadarius Toney, RB Saquon Barkley (again) and WR Kenny Golladay on offense. The Giants are too banged up and I’ll take the Panthers to cover.
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (-16) – My pick is Detroit Lions
The Lions are 0-6 outright and 3-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 34-11 blowout home loss to the Bengals. Detroit couldn’t find anything that worked on offense against the stout Rams defense. QB Jared Goff was largely ineffective as he averaged less than 5.0 yards per passing attempt. The Rams are 5-1 outright and 4-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 38-11 blowout road win against the Giants. Their defense chewed up the Giants and QB Matthew Stafford had great field position. He went on to throw four touchdown passes in the win. These teams swapped quarterbacks this offseason and it’s clear in the short-term that the Rams got the better of the deal. I hate, hate betting lines this lopsided in the NFL. Honestly, a lot has to go wrong for the underdog team to lose against a spread this large. The Lions are better than their winless outright record would suggest. The Rams are a great team, but they haven’t been consistently blowing out teams. I am betting on a garbage time touchdown and taking the points.
Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders (-3) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders
The Eagles are 2-4 outright and 3-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 28-22 home loss to the Bucs on Thursday Night Football. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts didn’t have a good night throwing the ball, but did run in two touchdowns. The Bucs put heavy pressure on the young quarterback. The Raiders are 4-2 outright and 3-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 34-24 road win against the Broncos. It was an impressive win after a week of turmoil surrounding their now-former head coach. Raiders QB Derek Carr had one of his better outings of the year by throwing for 341 yards and two touchdowns. He was helped greatly by his receivers YAC totals. He had two completions that went for 50+yards against the Broncos. I like what I saw from the Raiders last week and they could be a better team without Jon Gruden. I’m taking them to cover at home.
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bears are 3-3 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 24-14 home loss to the Packers. The Bears haven’t opened up the full playbook for rookie QB Justin Fields, so their offense is a tad better than a bare bones offense. I did like what I saw from RB Khalil Herbert as he nearly cracked the century mark on the ground. The Buccaneers are 5-1 outright and 2-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 28-22 road win against the Eagles on Thursday Night Football. The Bucs defense did its job and it was a fairly easy day for the offense. They drained the clock and nearly had a 2:1 advantage in time of possession. I expect a similar gameplan from the Bucs in this game. I could see them trying to shorten the game for the rookie quarterback. The Bucs have failed to cover in three of their last four games, but I think they should cover this one at home.
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-17) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals
The Texans are 1-5 outright and 3-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-3 blowout road loss against the Colts. Houston’s defense couldn’t stop Colts RB Jonathan Taylor and the game got out of hand in the second-half. Texans rookie QB Davis Mills threw two interceptions and RB David Johnson coughed up the ball for another turnover. The Cardinals are 6-0 outright and 5-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 37-14 road win against the Browns. Arizona may have the most talented group of wide receivers in the NFL. They have made QB Kyler Murray look like a MVP candidate. There are some large point spreads this week, but this game might have the largest talent disparity. Once a running back gets into the Texans secondary, it’s off to the races. If the Cardinals get into the second-level with the ball, it would easily turn into a blowout. As I said earlier, I hate taking double-digit point spreads in the NFL, especially ones that are over two touchdowns…but the Cardinals are so damn good. I have to take them to cover.
Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers (-4) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are 2-4 outright and 4-2 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 31-3 blowout home win against the Texans. Indy spammed the ball to RB Jonathan Taylor and he led them to the win. They also got WR T.Y. Hilton back off the PUP list, but he tweaked his quad in the game (it’s possible that he will play on Sunday night). The Niners are 2-3 outright and 1-4 against the spread. They are coming off their bye week and lost 17-10 to the Cardinals in their previous game. The Niners are dealing with injuries to a handful of star players. QB Jimmy Garoppolo (calf) returned to practice this week while rookie QB Trey Lance (knee) hasn’t participated. They are also without star TE George Kittle (calf) and RB Raheem Mostert (knee). I liked what I saw from the Colts last week, even if it was against a bad team. The Niners are hobbled and even if they get the win, I think it will be a late field goal. I’m taking the points.
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (+5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints
The Saints are 3-2 outright and against the spread. They are coming off their bye week and beat Washington 33-22 in their previous game. I need to see QB Jameis Winston become a larger part of this offense against good teams. The Saints have put the handcuffs on him, for better or worse, against potential playoff teams. The Seahawks are 2-4 outright and 3-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 23-30 overtime road loss to the Steelers. Backup QB Geno Smith did his job in the game. They just want him to be a game manager. Seattle’s offense is just going to be inconsistent without both QB Russell Wilson and RB Chris Carson. Teams can cheat their safeties towards the line without the pair in game. They will need Smith to take a few risks a game if they hope to salvage this season. The offense will be extremely vanilla without a few risks. The Saints have been a good road team this season and they should cover this on Monday Night Football.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
20210: 56-35-3
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob