I went 11-13-1 against the spread last week.
I killed it in the early games on Saturday, but was was slaughtered with my afternoon and late night picks.
We are slowly getting into early days of in-conference games. We will get more historical data, which usually means tougher point spreads.
Wisconsin-transfer QB Jack Coan (now at Notre Dame) will start against his former team this weekend. Will the Badgers cover in Soldier Field?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 4 of the 2021-22 NCAA Football season (September 25th, 2021).
LSU at Mississippi State (+2.5) – My pick is LSU Tigers
LSU is coming off a 49-21 win over Central Michigan. They have now won two-straight after losing their opener at UCLA. LSU QB Max Johnson has been great in their wins, albeit against lesser competition. Their defense will need to show up this week. Mississippi State were defeated at Memphis 31-29 last week. They are a true one-dimensional air raid offense under head coach Mike Leach. He doesn’t have the other talent right now, but they could be better after another recruiting year. LSU has the athletes to defend against the pass enough to cover this spread.
Notre Dame vs Wisconsin (-6.5) – My pick is Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame are 3-0 on the year, but are just 1-2 against the spread. They came back to win at home to Purdue and covered their first game. The Irish do need to figure out their two-quarterback situation, as I think the QB switch hurt them on a few drives. Wisconsin bounced back from their 16-10 loss to Penn State in Week 1. The Badgers blew out Eastern Michigan 34-7 and then had a bye week to prepare for this game. I’m still waiting for Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz to impress me this year. He had a few moments last year, but he was largely below average after his great performance against Illinois. I’m taking the points in this one.
Rutgers at Michigan (-21) – My pick is Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Rutgers isn’t the same pushover team as they’ve been in the past. They are 3-0 heading into this game and Nebraska-transfer QB Noah Vedral has turned into a pretty solid quarterback. One issue they have is that their run-blocking needs to make some bigger holes for RB Isaih Pacheco. Michigan also comes into this game 3-0 on the year. They are a much better team that struggled last season. They haven’t faced top competition to this point, but their two-QB system is working well right now. Their offense doesn’t live or die with that position, so subbing in guys works. If Rutgers can make a few tackles in the backfield and stymy Michigan’s running game, I think they keep this within the spread, so I’m taking the points.
Colorado State at Iowa (-23) – My pick is Iowa Hawkeyes
I’ve convinced myself that Iowa might be one of the best teams in the country. Their defense is full of playmakers that make smart reads. I don’t see too many teams scoring double-digit points against them this year. Colorado State is coming off a 22-6 win in Toledo, but I don’t see their running game working against Iowa this week. I’m taking the Hawkeyes to cover at home.
Clemson at NC State (+10) – My pick is NC State Wolfpack
Clemson is coming off a 14-8 win at home against Georgia Tech. It was much closer than expected, but that’s been the trend for Clemson games this season (0-3 ATS). QB D.J. Uiagalelei isn’t the same dynamic quarterback that played a couple games last season. The Tigers did lose a lot of talent to the NFL Draft, so he’s surrounded me lesser talent this season. NC State isn’t super talented, but their defense should keep them close. If Wolfpack RB Zonovan Knight can move the ball, I think they have a shot, so I’m taking the points.
Kansas State at Oklahoma State (-6) – My pick is Kansas State Wildcats
Last week, Kansas State defeated Nevada 38-17. The Wildcats need a strong running game to win games this season. They have some talented guys in the backfield, led by Deuce Vaughn. Their defense has also been surprisingly good so far. Oklahoma State squeaked by Boise State 21-20. OSU has a similar offense this season as they’ll need RB Jaylen Warren to put up points. Cowboys QB Spencer Sanders isn’t having a good year so far. I’m taking the points in this one.
Akron at Ohio State (-49.5) – My pick is Akron Zips
I usually stay away from point spreads this large, but I feel like there’s value in this betting line. Ohio State are 0-2-1 against the spread as they have been slow starters. New QB C.J. Stroud has taken a few drives to get going through his first three games. Ohio State will win this game by a lot, but I love that extra half-point. Akron isn’t very good, but I’m hoping Ohio State will lay off the gas and maybe Akron will score some garbage-time points.
West Virginia at Oklahoma (-17) – My pick is West Virginia Mountaineers
West Virginia beat Virginia Tech 27-21 last week, which surprised me. I haven’t been a strong supporter of QB Jarret Doege, but he’s a solid quarterback when he’s given help running the ball. The Mountaineers were able to do that against the Hokies. Oklahoma is currently 3-0 after beating Nebraska 23-16. The Sooners were expected to blow them out, but the Cornhuskers are a better team this season. If West Virginia can get OU QB Spencer Rattler to make a couple mistakes, I think they keep this one within the spread, so I’m taking the points.
Nebraska at Michigan State (-5) – My pick is Michigan State Spartans
As I mentioned just above, Nebraska is coming off a close loss to Oklahoma. They are 2-2 on the year and 3-1 against the spread. The Cornhuskers are a much better team when QB Adrian Martinez is healthy. Michigan State is another early-season surprise team. They are 3-0 on the year and 2-0-1 against the spread. Their defense is better and are actually able to run the ball, unlike last season. I think people are still sleeping on the Spartans, so I’m taking the cover.
Buffalo at Old Dominion (+13.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bulls
This is the section where I pick a smaller conference game. Buffalo are 1-2 on the season, but their two losses game against better competition (Coastal Carolina & Nebraska). Old Dominion is coming off a 45-17 loss at Liberty. They weren’t in that game for very long and it got out of hand early. ODU were blown out in both of their games against FBS teams and I think it will happen again this week.
QUICK HITS
Missouri at Boston College (+1.5) – My pick is Boston College
Miami (OH) at Army (-8.5) – My pick is Army
Iowa State at Baylor (-+7) – My pick is Iowa State
Oregon State at USC (-10.5) – My pick is USC
California at Washington (-7.5) – My pick is California
Indiana at Western Kentucky (+9) – My pick is Indiana
Hawaii at New Mexico State (+17) – My pick is New Mexico State
Florida Atlantic at Air Force (-4.5) – My pick is Air Force
Arkansas State at Tulsa (-13.5) – My pick is Arkansas State
Kansas at Duke (-16) – My pick is Duke
BONUS PICKS!
New Mexico at UTEP (-1.5) – My pick is UTEP
UAB at Tulane (-3.5) – My pick is UAB
Navy at Houston (-20) – My pick is Houston
North Texas at Louisiana Tech (-12) – My pick is La Tech
UL-Lafayette at Georgia Southern (+14) – My pick is Lafayette
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 37-36-2
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.