I went 14-10-1 against the spread last week.
After two weeks of college football, we are starting to get a better feel for which teams could make a jump from ‘possible bowl team’ to ‘contender’.
Ohio State was the first championship contender to suffer their first loss of the year. They struggled against Oregon and have fell in the polls.
Alabama faces Florida in what may assume will be the game of the week. Can young Bama QB Bryce Young continue is unreal start to his collegiate career?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 3 of the 2021-22 NCAA Football season (September 18th, 2021).
Cincinnati at Indiana (+4) – My pick is Cincinnati Bearcats
Indiana hasn’t quite recovered from their opening week blowout loss to Iowa. They played Idaho last week (and smoked them 56-14), but I would have liked to have seen QB Michael Penix Jr. play more in that game. I realize that they had a big early lead, but as bad as Penix looked against Iowa, it would have been nice to see him get some in-game reps. Cincinnati is off to a hot start with a pair of blowout wins against Miami of Ohio and Murray State. The Bearcats could be the best team in their conference. Cincy QB Desmond Ridder has taken another step in his development. If he can put together a big game in Bloomington, he could jump up draft lists. Cincinnati is underrated and I think they will cover on the road against Indiana.
Virginia Tech at West Virginia (-3) – My pick is Virginia Tech Hokies
The Hokies opened the year with an upset win over North Carolina and then followed that up with a blowout of Middle Tennessee. If they can run the ball and convert on third downs, they are a really hard team to beat. Their offense won’t overload box scores, but they can win a close game against a good team. The Mountaineers suffered a loss to Maryland in their opener and had then won a gimme game against Long Island University. In order for West Virginia to compete against good teams, they need big games from QB Jarret Doege. I haven’t been a vocal supporter of Doege in the past and I feel he’s a below-average Big 12 quarterback. I like the Hokie defense in this game, so I’m taking the points.
Purdue at Notre Dame (-8) – My pick is Purdue Boilermakers
I’ve been waiting a couple years for Purdue QB Jack Plummer to put everything together (and stay healthy). He has thrown six touchdowns and has yet to throw an interception through through two games. Purdue is now getting some of the hype Indiana lost after they were blown out by Iowa in Week 1. Notre Dame are 2-0 this year, but needed final minute heroics in both games. Notre Dame learned that they may want to try a ‘hot hand’ approach at quarterback. QB Jack Coan can start the game, but if things start to turn stale, they should put Tyler Buchner in for relief. The Irish may end up winning this game, but Purdue will keep this one close.
Nevada at Kansas State (+2) – My pick is Kansas State Wildcats
Nevada QB Carson Strong has been great so far this year. He’s been able to avoid many turnovers in his collegiate career. He hasn’t played a ton of Power Conference teams in his career, so I’m interested to see how he will fare against Kansas State. I think the Wildcats defense will be a big test for Strong. The Wildcats offense isn’t anything special but I think their defense could help them with field position in this game. I’m going to roll the dice here and take the points.
Georgia Tech at Clemson (-28.5) – My pick is Clemson Tigers
Georgia Tech is finally getting some non-triple-option players on offense, but they are not in the same league as Clemson. I would have for this line to drop below 28 points, but it looks like we are stuck with that extra half-point. There’s not much more to say about this game, so I’m taking Clemson to cover this large spread.
Alabama at Florida (+14) – My pick is Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama is playing like the best team in the country right now. Bama QB Bryce Young has been unstoppable so far. Florida will be the best talent he has faced so far, but the guy is legit. Florida lost a ton of talent to the draft, but the new players have been solid. I’m not sold on QB Emory Jones as their starter and think they would be a better team if they just went all-in with QB Anthony Richardson. Alabama’s defense should frustrate whichever Gator quarterback is in the game on Saturday. I’m taking Alabama to cover in The Swamp.
Utah at San Diego State (+9.5) – My pick is San Diego State Aztecs
Utah thought they would be in a better spot at this point in the year. They had to assume that adding QB Charlie Brewer to the team would get them to 2-0 going into this game. Brewer had a rather uneventful game in their loss to BYU last week. San Diego State’s defense has been a big surprise. We knew that they had a couple studs at running back, but when you add a good defense to their formula, the Aztecs should be bowl-bound. I’m taking the points in this one.
Virginia at North Carolina (-9) – My pick is Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia has outperformed my preseason expectations for them. I didn’t expect QB Brennan Armstrong to have such a strong showing against a better-than-usual Illinois team. Also, their defense confused the Illini passing attack. The Cavaliers could surprise people this year. North Carolina QB Sam Howell was the #1 quarterback prospect going into the season. He checks all the boxes, but he does have a couple dud games per year. The Tar Heels hope that he got his dud out of his system in their opening week loss to Virginia Tech. Virginia could make Howell work hard in this game. North Carolina may get the win, but this spread is a little bloated, so I’m taking the points.
Arizona State at BYU (+3.5) – My pick is BYU Cougars
Arizona State is a complete team with a solid defense and a prolific offense behind QB Jayden Daniels. Why am I picking against them? It has to do more with BYU than Arizona State. The Cougars have played up to their competition so far this season. They don’t have the same high-scoring offense that they had last season, but the duo of QB Jaren Hall and RB Tyler Allgeier isn’t too shabby. The public is probably going hard with a Sun Devils bet, but I’ve just been too impressed with BYU to not ride with them for another week.
Old Dominion at Liberty (-27.5) – My pick is Old Dominion Monarchs
This is the section where I pick a smaller conference game. Liberty is the far better team and they have a possible NFL-caliber quarterback in Malik Willis. The rest of the team isn’t exactly top-notch, but a team like Liberty can get away with just that and win games against other smaller schools. They will be overrated most weeks before they have someone with some name recognition, and their opposing school may not have anyone of note. Old Dominion was blown out in their opener against Wake Forest. That loss looks a bit rough on paper because the Demon Deacons weren’t expected to be very good this year. I would argue that they are better than expected, so ODU’s loss shouldn’t be a large negative when handicapping their games this year. Liberty will win this game, but I think they will come up a few points short of a cover.
QUICK HITS
Coastal Carolina at Buffalo (+14) – My pick is Coastal Carolina
Kent State at Iowa (-22.5) – My pick is Iowa
East Carolina at Marshall (-10) – My pick is Marshall
USC at Washington State (+8) – My pick is USC
Michigan State at Miami (FL) (-7) – My pick is Michigan State
Boston College at Temple (+16) – My pick is Temple
Minnesota at Colorado (-2.5) – My pick is Minnesota
Mississippi State at Memphis (+3.5) – My pick is Mississippi State
Northwestern at Duke (+3) – My pick is Northwestern
Arkansas State at Washington (-16) – My pick is Arkansas State
BONUS PICKS!
Middle Tennessee at Texas-San Antonio (-12.5) – My pick is UTSA
UCF at Louisville (+7) – My pick is Central Florida
Georgia Southern at Arkansas (-23.5) – My pick is Arkansas
Baylor at Kansas (+18) – My pick is Baylor
Oklahoma State at Boise State (-3.5) – My pick is Boise State
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 26-23-1
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.