I went 8-8 against the spread last week.
I would have been above .500 last week, but Washington decided to hold off QB Alex Smith for another week. I wouldn’t have laid a single penny on Dwayne Haskins if I had known he was getting the start last week.
There are a lot of different potential playoff scenarios this week. I tried to mention every single option to give you an idea which teams have something left to play for in Week 17.
Can the Steelers backups keep it close the Browns?
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 17 of the 2020 NFL season.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons
The Bucs are pretty much cemented in their spot in the playoffs. They will be the road team and could rest QB Tom Brady at some point. I just don’t see him playing all four quarters in a rather meaningless game. The Falcons players are still playing for some respect. Atlanta will have a new GM and head coach next year, so many need to really play all-out to keep their jobs. The Falcons defense has improved over the last two months and I think they could keep this one close, so I’m taking the points.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-10.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have nothing to gain in this game, so they will be resting a lot of players. The Browns need a win in this game or else they would need a lot of wacky stuff to happen to clinch a Wild-Card spot. They are still dealing with some positive COVID-19 issues, but they could have a few of their receivers back if they don’t test positive by Sunday. The Steelers aren’t going to sit everyone and they will still have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. As long as the Steelers will be able to stop the Browns running game, I think they will keep this within double-digits. I’m taking the points.
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3) – My pick is New York Jets
The Jets have won-back-to-back games and now find themselves well outside the hunt for the #1 overall pick. Jets QB Sam Darnold is playing for his starting job right now. I doubt the Jets will keep head coach Adam Gase after this week, so Darnold needs to end the season on a high note. The Patriots are clearly tanking at this point…unless QB Cam Newton is just this bad at leading a team on offense. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jets won this game outright. I’m taking the points (again).
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (+13) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens need a win or a Browns or Colts loss to secure a Wild-Card berth. Baltimore has an elite ground game and the Bengals have shown an inability to stop great running offenses. I’m a little hesitant on taking such a large point spread during Week 17, since I could easily see the Ravens take their foot off the gas pedal in the fourth quarter…but I’m going to take a risk and go with the Ravens to cover on Sunday.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-4.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins
The Bills have been on quite the roll of late. Head coach Sean McDermott hasn’t said if he plans to rest QB Josh Allen in this game. I believe he will rest Allen and a few other starters for most of this game. They will either be the #2 or #3 seed in the playoffs, which in a year like this, doesn’t matter since they aren’t playing for a chance at a first-round bye. The Dolphins still need a win or a Ravens or Browns or Colts loss to secure a Wild-Card berth. I’m taking the points in this one.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+1.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys could still win the NFC East with a win AND a Washington loss. Their offense has been playing a lot better of late and have been beating up on bad teams. I would put the Giants in that ‘bad team’ category right now. They are banged up and are missing a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. I’m taking the Cowboys to cover.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+7) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings
Vikings QB Dalvin Cook will miss this game after his father’s death. Both of these teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, so they are just playing for pride. It’s still unknown if Lions QB Matthew Stafford will suit up for this game, but I don’t see him playing in such a meaningless game. The Lions have been bad and have been beaten by more than a touchdown nearly every week since mid-November. I’m taking the Vikings to cover.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-14) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts
The Colts need a win AND a loss from either the Ravens, Browns, Titans or Dolphins to clinch an AFC Wild-Card spot. They could also win the AFC South with a win AND a Titans loss. I’m sure the Colts want some revenge from their Week 1 loss to the Jaguars, that team’s lone win of the season. The Colts have been a great betting team against the bottom-tier in the league since that game. I think they finish the season strong with a cover at home.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+7.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans
The Titans just need to win and they win the AFC South. If they lose, they need the Ravens, Colts or Dolphins to lose to secure a playoff berth. I expect a big game from Titans RB Derrick Henry in this game. He could even crack the 2,000-yard mark with a 223-yard performance. I don’t know if he will reach that total, but I’m sure the team will be eyeing that total if they have a lead in the second-half. I’m taking the Titans to cover on Sunday.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+7) – My pick is Carolina Panthers
The Saints have already clinched a playoff spot, but they are still in the hunt for a first-round bye and home-field advantage. They need a win AND a Packers loss AND a Seahawks win to secure it. All of those teams play in the late-afternoon slate of games, so they won’t know their fate at the start of this game. The Panthers have been playing teams close lately. If this line was closer to a field goal, I would probably take the Saints, but I don’t see the Panthers losing by a touchdown this week, so I’ll take the points.
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (+2.5) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders
The Broncos have been a pretty bad home team this year. They don’t have anything left to play for this season, so I expect some of their banged-up players to sit this one out. The Raiders haven’t been a strong betting team since mid-November, but they did beat the spread last week in a close loss against the Dolphins. I think they will finish the season strong and cover this game.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+5.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers
The Packers could earn a first-round bye and home-field advantage with a win OR a Seattle loss. The Bears could earn a Wild-Card spot with a win OR a Cardinals loss. The Packers might be playing the best of any team in the entire league. They are clicking at the right time and will be a tough out. The Bears have been playing better since head coach Matt Nagy gave up the offensive play-calling duties. This could end up near the point spread, but I’m still taking the Packers to cover. They just always seem to have the Bears number.
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers
The Chiefs have already clinched a first-round bye and home-field advantage, so they will be resting their starters in this game. They are already resting all of their studs in practice this week, so I expect a lot of backups in this game. I’m taking the Chargers in this one, as they’ve been pretty darn good lately and should cover against the Chiefs B-Team.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+6) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers
The Seahawks can clinch a first-round bye and home-field advantage with a win AND a Saints loss AND a Packers loss. If either of those teams are up late in their games by half-time, Seattle could pump the brakes and rest a few starters. They are already a longshot at getting the #1 seed. The Seahawks and Niners tend to play each other tight every year. Their earlier meeting was close and I expect another tight game, so I’m taking the points.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (+3) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals
The Rams will be without starting QB Jared Goff in this one. He underwent thumb surgery and backup QB John Wolford will start in his place. This will still be a competitive game with the Rams needing a a win OR Bears loss to secure a Wild-Card spot and the Cardinals just need a win and they get a Wild-Card spot. I know Goff hasn’t been great this season, but I still think the loss of Goff could be devastating to their playoff chances. The Cardinals should win this game and cover.
Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles (+1.5) – My pick is Washington Football Team
Washington just need to win this game to clinch the NFC East crown. It appears that they should finally get starting QB Alex Smith back from the calf sprain injury he suffered a few weeks ago. They definitely need him in this game as they would have to turn to Taylor Heinicke since they cut Dwayne Haskins a few days ago and Kyle Allen is on injured-reserve (ankle). If Smith can’t go, I’d go with the Eagles in this game, but all signs point to Smith playing in this game. The Eagles could end up playing spoiler with rookie QB Jalen Hurts. He’s fast and can get away from Washington’s speedy, explosive pass rushers. I’m taking Washington to cover on Sunday night.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 135-99-5
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob