I went 10-5 against the spread last week.

Thursday night games are back this week. I enjoyed not having one last week and actually found to prefer Tuesday night games instead.

The Steelers were the last undefeated team to fall. They lost to Washington and have another tough game this week when they travel to Buffalo. 

There are a few games this week that will be the second meetings between division rivals. I try not to take a ton of information from those games as teams make adjustments and it’s difficult to beat a division foe twice in a year. I also don’t follow that advice for at least one of my picks this week.

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 14 of the 2020 NFL season.

New England Patriots at Los Angeles Rams (-5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Patriots have appeared to have turned their season around by winning four of their last five games (3-2 ATS). They are coming off an impressive 45-0 win on the road against the Chargers. The Patriots can hang with some good teams if they can run the ball and get first downs. The Rams have a next-level defense and this will be the Patriots biggest test in many weeks. The Rams have been equally great of late by winning three of their last four games (3-1 ATS) and they’ve been able to beat up on average teams. I like the Rams front-seven and think the Patriots will have issues on the ground, so I’m taking the Rams to cover.

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (+1.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

I think the public are finally jumping on the Giants bandwagon. They are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games and have won their last four games outright. I’ve long been saying that the Giants were much better than their record, when they had an awful record to start the year. Hell, the Giants beat the spread with Colt freakin’ McCoy starting against the Seahawks. The Cardinals are coming off a game against the Rams, who arguably have the best defense in the league. They won’t be shook by the Giants defense this week. Also, let’s not forget that the Giants have faced a rather average schedule during their recent stretch of games. I think the Cardinals robust running game will be hard for the Giants to figure out. I’m taking the Cardinals to cover on Sunday afternoon.

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs are coming off a much-needed bye week after losing three of their last four games outright. There have been rumors of in-fighting amongst the QB Tom Brady and head coach Bruce Arians. The Vikings are the perfect opponent for a team that needs to see a big game from their passing game. The Vikings pass defense has been well below-average against teams with a strong passing attack. I’m taking the Bucs to cover.

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (pk) – My pick is Houston Texans

The Texans have found themselves rather thin at wide receivers due to injuries and suspensions. I’ve liked WR Keke Coutee since he was a rookie in 2018, but he was on the injury report more times than he was healthy his first two years and then ended up near the bottom of the depth chart this season. He had 8 catches for 141 yards in a losing effort against the Colts. Also, QB Deshaun Watson has been better than you think, in his last seven games, he has thrown 15 touchdowns with only one interception (which happened last week). Yes, he went six full games without throwing an interception before their loss to the Colts. The Bears will be able to score points against the Texans, but it won’t be enough. I’m taking the Texans in this one.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

The Titans are coming off a near-comeback win last week. They were down to the Browns 38-7 at halftime last week, but were able to narrow the deficit to six points, but ran out of time. The Titans were able to make the correct adjustments and were helped by great play from QB Ryan Tannehill. The Jags have been able to keep games close with QB Mike Glennon, but his play fell a bit in his second game as the starter. The Titans have been a strong road team this year and should cover this one on the road.

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers (-3.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos

This game will most likely end with a score near this point spread. They are pretty even talent-wise. The Broncos are coming off a 22-16 loss to the Chiefs and were able to beat the spread. The running game was strong and I expect more of that strategy. The Panthers will be handcuffed a bit on offense with some key players out, most due to landing on the COVID-19 reserve list. There have been a few sportsbooks that have pulled this game off the board until the COVID situation becomes more clear. The Panthers are too short-handed right now to cover this spread, so I’m taking the points.

Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are coming off back-to-back losses that looked as bad on paper than it was to watch those games. They were unable to stop the Ravens on the ground, and on offense, they were only able to put points on the board due to fortunate field position. They’ve been lousy against the spread on top of everything. I’m taking them in this game due to the Bengals playing flat with QB Brandon Allen at quarterback and their running game has been non-existent the last month. Can the Cowboys defense manage to stop a bad offense? They haven’t shown a ton of promise, but I am rolling the dice here with my pick. The Bengals haven’t scored more than 17 points since November 1st. I also believe that Cowboys QB Andy Dalton will come into this game with a chip on his shoulder. I’m taking the Cowboys to cover in Cincinnati.

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins (+7.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

The Chiefs have won seven-straight games outright, but are currently riding a four-game losing streak against the spread. They haven’t been able to stretch leads and keep them late in the game. The Dolphins have been amazing against the spread this year. They have covered seven of their last eight games. Their defense has stepped up and can be leaned on against talented teams. I think Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes could have a few bad drives this weekend. If the Dolphins defense can give their offense solid field position, I think Miami will keep this one close, so I’m taking the points.

Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders (+3) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

I’ve done well with my current Colts betting strategy. They’ve been able to win and cover against average teams, but they rarely show up big in games against the top teams in the league. I wouldn’t suggest the Raiders are in that top-tier. Vegas hasn’t played well since their 37-12 win over Denver on November 15th. Hell, they BARELY beat the Jets last week and should have lost that game. I think the Colts will take care of business and cover on Sunday.

New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

I don’t love this pick, but the Jets have been horrible on the road this year. The Seahawks haven’t beaten a team by 11+ points since Week 1, but I would argue that they haven’t played a team as bad as the Jets this year. After blowing a lead with mere seconds left in the game, the Jets fired their defensive coordinator the following day. I’m amazed that Jets head coach Adam Gase was able to keep his job at this point. I think this line would have to jump to -14.5 or more for me to even think about taking the Jets.

Washington Football Team at San Francisco 49ers (-3) – My pick is Washington Football Team

This game will be played at State Farm Stadium in Arizona. Washington QB Alex Smith is the feel-good story of the decade. The guy came back from a near-death injury and has played great the last couple weeks. The Footballers are a better team with him under center. Also, their young defensive studs are getting better and better. Young defensive ends Chase Young and Montez Sweat just cause chaos at the line. I’m not sure if Niners QB Nick Mullens will have much time in the pocket on Sunday. I’m taking the points in this one.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (+7) – My pick is New Orleans Saints

The Eagles benched QB Carson Wentz during their 30-16 loss against the Packers. They have named QB Jalen Hurts as their starter going forward. They were in need of a mobile quarterback due to their injuries on the offensive line. He can at least buy a little more time behind the line of scrimmage. Saints QB Taysom Hill looked like an NFL quarterback last week. He threw the ball 37 times and threw two touchdowns….and he still ran for 83 yards. I think if they balance his passes and designed runs, this is what works best for him. Teams won’t be able to stack the box and will need to fear the pass more. The Eagles offense couldn’t get much worse, so I don’t see Hurts as a negative, but it’s more of a lateral move in my eyes. I don’t know if he’s a quarterback at this level. If the Saints can force him to throw, he will make a few mistakes and they will cover.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+7.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

The Packers beat the Lions 42-21 back in September. Packers RB Aaron Jones had a big game in that one. I rarely like to predict a second double-digit win against a divisional opponent, but I think it all adds up that another one is on the horizon. The Lions did play better a week after canning their head coach. They started flat, but were able to outscore the Bears 21-7 in the second-half to get the outright win. I like how the Packers are playing right now and have bounced-back from a mid-season lull. I hate that extra half-point, but I’m still taking the Packers to cover.

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons

The Chargers are coming off an embarrassing 45-0 loss at home to the Patriots. There was not a single positive thing in that game for the Chargers to feel good about. They were beaten in every phase of the game. They were able to make rookie QB Justin Herbert look like he was in over his head. I think the Falcons will be able to throw on the Chargers secondary. This could end up in a shootout, but I like the Falcons in that situation. Herbert is coming off his two worst games as a pro. I’m taking Atlanta to cover on the road.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-2.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

I know there have been a lot of people saying that the Steelers were the worst undefeated team at this point in the season, ever. I could see why people would say that, but I think they could hang with any of those past 11-0 teams and it would be a close game. Their defense forces turnovers and their passing game is loaded with capable, playmaking weapons. Bills QB Josh Allen will need a perfect game to cover this spread. I think he will make a couple mistakes that could be game-breaking. I’m taking the points on Sunday night.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+1) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

I haven’t been high on the Browns in quite awhile, but they are on a four-game outright winning streak. They have been horrible against the spread as they are 2-5 ATS over their last seven games. The last time these teams played was back on September 13th and the Ravens won 38-6. I don’t see the game being as lopsided, but the Ravens are a very good team when they can run the ball. Cleveland’s run defense has been pretty good and they haven’t allowed many 100+ yard games. The Ravens will run the ball enough to wear down the Browns front-seven. I think they will stretch out a lead late in the game and cover this one.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 107-80-4

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob