I went 10-5-1 against the spread last week. I was able to notch another ‘Perfect Thanksgiving’ on my belt (even if one of the games were pushed back nearly an entire week).

I was able to bounce-back from my first subpar week of the season. I made my picks earlier last week and I was lucky as all the disastrous COVID stuff didn’t mess with my picks.

There was some reshuffling with the schedule this week due to all the positive COVID tests. We have no Thursday night game, but we have two Monday night games and an extra Tuesday night game on the schedule.

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 13 of the 2020 NFL season.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars went with QB Mike Glennon last week and were competitive in their 27-25 loss to the Browns. Glennon was efficient and didn’t turn the ball over, which is rare for the Jaguars this season. The Vikings have been an average betting team, but they haven’t been able to extend leads over a touchdown this season. I know the Jaguars defense have been pretty bad at times this season, but the Jags have covered three of their last four games due to the public being down on them so much. I don’t think the public is aware of the Jags recent betting trend yet, since this spread grew by a half-point as I was writing this post. I think the public has just written them off as ‘tanking’, but that’s not what’s happening here. Glennon impressed me enough to think that they will be a tough team for the Vikings to beat by double-digits. I expect a run-heavy game from both sides. I’m taking the points.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (+3) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons

It was just two weeks ago when the Saints beat the Falcons 24-9. Not much has changed since the Saints started QB Taysom Hill in that meeting as well. Both teams have been great against the spread in recent weeks. The Falcons have been a good team since sacking head coach Dan Quinn and have since went 4-2 against the spread. The Falcons defense was a disaster early this season and they are coming off a fantastic effort in their 43-6 win over the Raiders last week. The Saints basically had a bye week last week when they faced an emergency quarterback-led Broncos team. The Saints offense didn’t look great in that game as it was their defense who really stole the show against a wide receiver who was pushed into starting at quarterback (thanks to the Broncos lax COVID-19 protocols in their quarterback room). I expect this game will be much closer than their last game. The Falcons have some confidence and will stack the box and I’m taking the points.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3) – My pick is Chicago Bears

The Bears and Lions both suffered rather bad losses last week. The Lions loss to the Texans on Thanksgiving Day was so bad that it cost the head coach and general manager their jobs. The Lions have a laundry list of injuries heading into this game. It appears that they will likely get RB D’Andre Swift back, but WR Kenny Golladay is another game-time decision, which has been a DNP since they played the Colts back on November 1st. The Bears will start QB Mitchell Trubisky again this week. He looked rusty at the start of their 41-25 loss to the Packers, but he did play better in the fourth quarter to make the final score less embarrassing. I don’t think Vegas knows what to do with this line, so they just opened it at -3 and left it there. This could be ugly, but the Lions haven’t played well without Golladay all season. They have only won one of the seven games he either left early or missed completely. I’m taking the Bears to cover at home.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+3) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

Either the sportsbooks think the Texans blowout win over the Lions was huge or they think the Colts are a borderline average team without RB Jonathan Taylor and DL DeForest Buckner (who may or may not still be on the COVID-19 list on Sunday). The Colts are coming off a rather bad 45-26 loss at home to the Titans last week. The Colts were without some defensive line studs (Buckner & Denico Autry) due to COVID and Indy just wasn’t able to stop Titans RB Derrick Henry…at all. The Texans don’t have that sort of running back threat, so even if Buckner has to miss another game, I don’t think it will be as crucial. The Texans will be without WR Will Fuller V and CB Bradley Roby due to failing drug tests. The Roby suspension could be huge in this game, especially if Taylor can’t play for the Colts and they would need to throw more. I think the Colts will get a couple of their COVID guys back this week and will have a much easier time against the Texans. This game won’t be a cakewalk, but I think the Colts will get a win and a cover.

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (-11.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

These two teams have been very under-the-radar betting teams this season. The Bengals have only won two games outright this season, but are 7-4 against the spread. The Dolphins better them in both categories with a 7-4 outright record and 8-3 ATS. The Bengals are now without rookie QB Joe Burrow (knee) and started Brandon Allen straight from the practice squad last week. They were able to keep the game close, but lost 19-17 to the Giants (and covered the +6.5 spread). That game wasn’t as close as the score would suggest as the Giants just weren’t able to finish drives and relied heavily on field goal attempts. The Dolphins will once again turn to QB Ryan Fitzpatrick after rookie Tua Tagovailoa injured his thumb and will miss a couple weeks. The Dolphins are consistent enough that I think they won’t have the third-down issues the Giants had last week. I’m taking the Dolphins to cover this large spread.

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-5.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

The Titans are playing really well at the moment. They are coming off two statement road wins against Baltimore and Indianapolis. It’s also that time of the year when RB Derrick Henry just starts mowing over defenses (more than usual). You saw some of that last week against the Colts, who were missing two studs on their defensive line due to COVID. The Browns have won four of their last five games outright…but they are just 1-4 against the spread in that span. They are just winning ugly and were favored in all of those games. The Browns don’t have the offense to score in a hurry and if the Titans get out to a double-digit lead in the first-half, it could be over. The Titans have the personnel up-front to limit the Browns on the ground. I’m taking the Titans to cover at home.

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets (+7.5) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders

What the hell happened to the Raiders last week? Their 43-6 loss at Atlanta just came out of nowhere. The Falcons were able to beat the point spread by 40.5 points. The game was competitive in the first-half, but the Raiders only managed a field-goal in the second-half. I will chalk up last week’s bad loss as an aberration, because I don’t see them playing that poorly against the porous Jets defense. I’ve seen enough of the Jets with QB Sam Darnold under center to know that the Raiders have a strong chance of covering this game.

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-10) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

As of Thursday morning, it looks like the Giants could be forced to start QB Colt McCoy. Starting quarterback Daniel Jones hasn’t practiced all week and it appears that his hamstring injury could keep him from this game. I know the Giants defense have been able to make up for some of the miscues on offense this year, but I fear McCoy doesn’t have the athleticism in the pocket to evade the pass rush. That’s one area where Jones doesn’t get enough credit, as the Giants offensive line is average at best. If the Seahawks can get any pass-rush against McCoy, or even a hobbled Jones, this could be a long game for the Giants. I’m taking the Seahawks to cover on Sunday.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (+3) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

This is the first meeting between these teams this season. The Rams have a six-game winning streak against the Cardinals and are 5-0-1 against the spread in those games. This year’s Cardinals are much better than any of those teams. The Rams didn’t have WR DeAndre Hopkins to contend with twice-a-year. The Rams have the personnel to make things difficult for Hopkins, but the Cardinals have a few other quality receivers, so the Rams secondary depth will be tested. The Rams defense stepped up for them last week, but their offense was a no-show in their 23-20 loss at home to the Niners (who swept both meetings this year). I think it’s time for the Cardinals to end the streak and win outright and cover on Sunday.

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-9) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

The Eagles are coming off a 23-17 loss to the Seahawks on Monday night. They were unable to stop Seahawks WR DK Metcalf, who gained 177 yards against them. The Packers don’t have any receivers as big and talented as Metcalf, but I’m sure Packers QB Aaron Rodgers saw something on the game film that he can exploit. The Packers haven’t came through on touchdown (or greater) point spreads this year, but the Eagles offense is one-dimensional right now. I thought when RB Miles Sanders came back from injury, they could get some yards on the ground, but Sanders must be playing injured. I’m taking the Packers to cover this week.

New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers (+1) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are on a rough streak right now. They have failed to cover in five-straight games. They haven’t been missing these spreads by an obscene amount, but they’ve all missed by just four points or slightly more. I think they are finally facing a spread that is very beatable. The Patriots have been playing better of late, but they’ve been winning games ugly. They haven’t won a game by more than six points since September 27th. I think the Chargers can exploit an average Patriots secondary, as long as rookie QB Justin Herbert doesn’t make any dumb throws. This game will likely be another close game, but this one will be won by the Chargers.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-14) – My pick is Denver Broncos

The Broncos were forced to start a practice squad wide receiver at quarterback last week due to a lapse in judgement by all their quarterbacks. They won’t need to go through that again as everyone but QB Jeff Driskel was activated from the COVID list. The Chiefs beat the Broncos 43-16 back in October. It’s hard to beat a divisional foe by 14 points twice in a year. The Chiefs haven’t been a great betting team this year, as they are on a three-game skid against the spread. The Chiefs will leave this game with a win, but I think it’s a tad closer than the spread, so I’m taking the points.

Washington Football Team at Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) – My pick is Washington Football Team

The Steelers are coming off a 19-14 win against the Ravens, which was ravaged by COVID-19 positive tests and pushed to Wednesday afternoon. It’s unknown if they will be able to get any of those players back by Monday evening. Also, it appears that they may have lost LB Bud Dupree for the season (knee) in that game. Washington is coming off an impressive 41-16 win over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. It may have been one of the worst performances by the Cowboys defense this season. It’s hard for a team to have a game on Wednesday and then again on Monday, especially when you’re short-handed due to COVID. I’m going to take the points.

Buffalo Bills vs San Francisco 49ers (+1) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

This game will be played in Arizona due to COVID restrictions in Santa Clara County, California. I don’t quite understand this point spread. I almost feel like I’m missing something since this line was SF +2.5 when I started writing this post and it has moved to SF +1 a few hours later. I know they had an impressive win over the Rams, but they beat them earlier this season too and it didn’t mean a ton then either. Also, the COVID restrictions that forced them to move everything, even practices to another state, must be strange for NFL players who are creatures of habit during the regular season. The Bills have covered three-straight games and are finally getting some consistency from their backfield. The Bills are now able to take a little pressure off QB Josh Allen. The Niners defense is playing better, but I’m taking the Bills in this one.

Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

It appears that the Ravens will be getting back a large portion of the players who landed on the COVID-19 last week. If they are roughly at 80% capacity, they should be able to handle and cover against the Cowboys, who might be tanking at this point.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 97-75-4

Follow us on Twitter @Sweetbob & ‘LIKE’ us on Facebook!

About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob