Overview of Week 12 NFL Betting Action

Tons of action in the NFL as always and we’ll take a quick look at most of the games on the schedule to see if we can find any value in these games. With the playoffs soon approaching, every game takes on added meaning as teams battle for the home-field advantage which is the best way of making it to the Super Bowl.

Be Careful Betting on Thanksgiving

This week we have a treat with three Thursday games which is part of the NFL Thanksgiving tradition. We say be careful here because the temptation to bet games just because you will be home watching them is always going to be there. If you do that, you’re better off picking one of the three games instead of all of them. Not that there’s anything wrong with betting all of the games on Thanksgiving, because there isn’t. What we are saying is, this year’s edition has some weak games that seem very hard to call, especially the matchup between Dallas and Washington. These two teams have been so up and down that anyone that says they have a good read on who these teams are and how they play is at best reaching.

As for the Pittsburgh Steelers game against division rivals the Baltimore Ravens, the Ravens are another one of those teams that are hard to figure out. They can definitely win this game but is +4.5 enough of a cushion the way they look this season? Also, Pittsburgh already beat them earlier this season in a game where Lamar Jackson had a really hard time getting anything going. The Steelers pass rush is elite and so is their ability to stop the run so unless Jackson can step up and beat them with his arm, then the Ravens are not a bet on team the way they’ve been playing.

The only game that has an angle that seems clear is the game between the Houston Texans and Detroit Lions. The way that the Lions lost to the Carolina Panthers, they are preparing for next year. It’s highly unlikely that was the plan going in but based on his tenure so far, it doesn’t seem like Matt Patricia is the guy to take them to where they are trying to go. On top of that, Deshaun Watson looks unbelievable right now and to get him at -2.5 against this Lions defense seems too good to pass up.

Bills to Bounce Back This Week

After losing on a hail mary two weeks ago, the Buffalo Bills had a week off to lick their wounds and come back strong from that setback. There are some positives that can be taken from that loss, like the fact that Josh Allen led his team down the field and put them ahead with 30 secs left by throwing a touchdown in a game where he really didn’t play that well. Moments like that are part of his evolution as a franchise quarterback and at some point in the playoffs, he will probably be called on to take over and lead his team to victory. It was nice to see him make that important step in his development despite the loss. This week the Bills are favored by -5.5 against the Chargers who have only two wins on the season.

The spread is a bit high because the Chargers do play teams very close but the Bills will be in attack mode here and will be fully aware of Los Angeles hanging around in games. After losing on a hail mary in your last game, establishing a lead of more than one score will be a priority in a game where they are clearly the better team. If the Bills offensive line comes to play which we should expect, they should cover this spread.

Best of the Rest for Week 12

There is value in the Bucs at +3 against the Chiefs. Although the Tampa Bay Bucs have failed a few tests this season, the Kansas City Chiefs have looked more beatable this year. The Las Vegas Raiders had a legit chance to sweep the Chiefs this year although we don’t want to overreact to division rivalries. The Raiders literally have assembled their team with beating the Chiefs as the blueprint so at some point they are bound to find some level of success against them.

The point is, the Bucs have the personnel to beat the Chiefs at home and if you can get them taking +3 or more, it is absolutely worth it although if it goes down to 2.5 that is a bit riskier. Finally, in Green Bay, the Packers know that the road to the Super Bowl will have to go through Green Bay if they have any hopes of getting there. Luckily for them, they are the best team in their division and should take care of business against the Bears. While we don’t advise betting on any team at -7.5 unless you think they’ll win by double digits, the Packers are a pretty safe pick here against this terrible Bears team. If anything, buy the Packers down to -7 to give yourself a little cushion but you should expect a bounce-back performance from Aaron Rodgers and company after a touch OT loss to the Colts.