I went 13-9 against the spread last week.
As of Thursday afternoon, there have been 14 college football games wither cancelled or postponed due to COVID-19. My guess is that there will be a couple more cancelled before Saturday.
The marquee game this week is Indiana at Ohio State. Can the Hoosiers shock the country and stay undefeated?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 12 of the 2020-21 NCAA Football season (November 21st, 2020).
Indiana at Ohio State (-20.5) – My pick is Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana has been the biggest positive surprise in the Big Ten (Penn State and Michigan on the other side of the spectrum. They are undefeated on the year and QB Michael Penix Jr. might be the second-best quarterback in the Big Ten. Indiana’s defense has improved as well. They just had their first shutout against a Big Ten opponent in many years. Ohio State currently has the Big Ten’s best quarterback under center. QB Justin Fields has thrown 11 touchdowns with zero interceptions in three games this year. He has even completed 86.7% of his passes. This should be his first true test. The Buckeyes should win this game, but I don’t think they’ll win by three touchdowns. Even though the Hoosiers are undefeated outright this season (and against the spread), they are still a tad undervalued. Sportsbooks still aren’t giving them a ton of love, thanks to Penn State and Michigan shitting the bed. The Hoosiers wins over those teams don’t look as strong now. I have to take the points in this one.
Wisconsin at Northwestern (+7) – My pick is Wisconsin Badgers
I picked against Northwestern last week, but they managed to win (and cover) against Purdue. I’m not sold on Indiana-transfer QB Peyton Ramsey. He’s good enough to beat middle-of-the-road Big Ten teams, but Wisconsin might be the second-best team in the Big Ten. The Badgers defense has been great in their two games this season. They’ve missed a couple of games due to COVID-19 cancellations. I just don’t see Northwestern stopping Wisconsin’s ground game. The Wildcats will be outclassed on Saturday, so I’m taking the Badgers to cover.
Iowa at Penn State (+2.5) – My pick is Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa and Penn State both come into this game trying to turnaround a disappointing start to the season. Penn State has a much larger hill to climb since they are currently winless on the year. Iowa lost their first two games, but have evened up their record by easily winning over Michigan State and Minnesota. Penn State’s issues run pretty deep. Their ground game is barley there and they might start QB WIll Levis over Sean Clifford. Levis relieved Clifford last week, but he didn’t even complete 50% of his passes against Nebraska. Iowa has their own issues passing the ball, but their backfield is talented as hell. If Iowa can run the ball, this game shouldn’t be close. I’m taking the Hawkeyes to cover on Saturday.
Kentucky at Alabama (-30) – My pick is Kentucky Wildcats
Alabama is clearly the better team and should easily win at home against Kentucky…but the Wildcats tend to keep games within the spread when they face the best teams in the SEC. The Wildcats were caught in a trap game and barely escaped with a 38-35 win at home against Vanderbilt. It was by far the most points they’ve allowed in regulation this season. They were caught overlooking the Commodores. Kentucky’s offense can be inconsistent, but QB Terry Wilson is now back healthy. Alabama should win this game, but Kentucky has some studs on defense and on the offensive line. I think the battles in the trenches can lead to some positives for Kentucky. I’m taking the points in this one.
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (-7) – My pick is Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma State needs a huge game from RB Chuba Hubbard if they hope to keep this game close. He’s dealing with a leg injury, but his coach says he’s as explosive as ever. I haven’t been impressed much by Oklahoma State this season and I don’t see them starting this week. Oklahoma has won five-straight meetings and are 4-1 ATS in those games. I’m taking the Sooners to cover over the Cowboys.
Arizona at Washington (-11.5) – My pick is Arizona Wildcats
Arizona and Washington both had their season debuts last week. Arizona lost in the final minute 34-30 against USC and Washington beat Oregon State 27-21. The Wildcats had a surprising game against USC, as they were 15-poing underdogs going into that game. Arizona head coach Kevin Sumlin needs some wins in this s protracted season to keep his job. I think QB Grant Gunnell could become one of the best QBs in the Pac 12. He has a tough task since Washington appears to have a very good secondary. I think Arizona will keep this close, so I’m taking the points.
USC at Utah (+3) – My pick is USC Trojans
USC is 2-0 outright, but they’ve failed to cover either game. They were double-digit favorites in both games, but won those games by a combined total of five points. They have a very good offense, but their defense clearly has some issues right now. This will be Utah’s first game of the season. They haven’t announced a starting quarterback yet, but it will either be South Carolina-transfer Jake Bentley or sophomore Cameron Rising. If Utah wants to win games this year, they’ll do with Bentley, but if they are punting this short season and building towards the future, they could try to give Rising the reps. My assumption is that Bentley will start, but that is just an educated guess at this point. Utah lost a lot of talent on defense to graduation. They were one of the better defensives teams in the Pac 12, but they will take a few steps back this season. This could be near the point spread, but I’m taking USC to cover on Saturday.
Clemson at Florida State (+35.5) – My pick is Clemson Tigers
Clemson will have QB Trevor Lawrence back this week after missing their last two games with COVID-19. They will try to bounce back from their overtime loss to Notre Dame in their last outing. Florida State lost QB Chubba Purdy for the season (collarbone) and will start QB Tate Rodemaker, who has no touchdowns and three interceptions this season. The Tigers will play with a lot of life with Lawrence back. I’m not saying that Clemson will beat Florida State as back as they beat Georgia Tech (73-7), but the game shouldn’t close soon after kickoff. I’m taking Clemson to cover against Florida State.
Cincinnati at UCF (+5.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bearcats
This year’s Cincinnati offense reminds me of some of the recent UCF squads. They are just consistently scoring and Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder can do everything at that position. He made a huge leap in his junior year and added increased accuracy over the offseason. He’s a dangerous quarterback and might be the fifth-best quarterback in the country. I’m taking the Bearcats in this one because of their defense. I think they will stop UCF enough to cover this spread.
Kansas State at Iowa State (-11) – My pick is Kansas State Wildcats
When Kansas State QB Skylar Thompson went down with an injury last month, I thought Kansas State’s season was over. I’ve been impressed with backup QB Will Howard so far. He has a lot to improve on, but he has all the tools to be a solid quarterback. He needs to improve on his accuracy, but he’s been solid for a freshman. Iowa State has a lot of talent on the team, but they’ve played down to their opponents too much this year. I feel like they are still spooked by their opening week loss to Lafayette. Iowa State will most likely win this game, but I don’t think they get the lead to double-digits. I’m taking the points.
QUICK HITS
Syracuse at Louisville (-19.5) – My pick is Syracuse
New Mexico at Air Force (-7) – My pick is Air Force
East Carolina at Temple (+3.5) – My pick is Temple
Illinois at Nebraska (-15.5) – My pick is Illinois
UCLA at Oregon (-13.5) – My pick is Oregon
Tennessee at Auburn (-10.5) – My pick is Auburn
Liberty at NC State (-3.5) – My pick is Liberty
Boise State at Hawaii (+14) – My pick is Boise State
Appalachian State at Coastal Carolina (-4.5) – My pick is Coastal Carolina
California at Oregon State (+3.5) – My pick is Oregon State
BONUS PICKS!
UMass at Florida Atlantic (-33) – My pick is FAU
Georgia Southern at Army (-4) – My pick is Army
Arkansas State at Texas State (+5.5) – My pick is Arkansas State
Middle Tennessee at Troy (-11.5) – My pick is Troy
Georgia State at South Alabama (+3.5) – My pick is Georgia State
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 112-106-2
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.