I went 7-4-3 against the spread last week.

There have been some COVID-19 activity this week. There have been a few teams that have transferred players to the COVID-19 reserve list. The Las Vegas Raiders could miss many key players on defense this week.

The marquee game this week is the Los Angeles Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers game on Monday Night Football.

How will Tom Brady fare against the Rams stout defense?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 11 of the 2020 NFL season.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-3) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

Arizona and Seattle are both 6-3 outright and 5-4 against the spread this season. They met late last month and Seattle won 37-34 in overtime. Arizona will have a huge advantage on offense as they are ranked first in the entire league and Seattle is dead-last in total defense. It wasn’t an issue last game since the Cardinals couldn’t cover Seattle WR Tyler Lockett. QB Russell Wilson threw three interceptions, but he had 472 total yards and got the win. He needed a Herculean effort to get the win and it’s crazy difficult to do that twice to the same opponent. Also, Seattle’s backfield is a M.A.S.H. unit and nearly all of them have some sort of ailment. They may get RB Chris Carson back, but it doesn’t look promising at the time of this post. I’m taking the points on Thursday.

Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team (-1) – My pick is Washington Football Team

Washington started off poorly in last week’s game against the Detroit. They scored 17 points in the fourth quarter and made it a game. Washington QB Alex Smith officially shook off the rust in the second-half. It took him about a game-and-a-half, but I think he’s back seeing the field better. Cincinnati has played horrible on the road this season (0-4-1 outright). If this spread was a few points larger, I’d probably take them here, but since it’s basically a pick’em, I’m taking Washington on Sunday.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints

New Orleans QB Drew Brees will be out for a few weeks as he’s dealing with multiple rib fractures. Saints will start QB Jameis Winston, who purposely took a cheap contract for a situation just like this. He gets to showcase in relief against one of the worst-ranked pass defenses in the NFL. Remember, Winston threw for 5,109 yards and 33 touchdowns last season for Tampa Bay…but he also led the league with 30 interceptions. He had off-season LASIK surgery, so that could be a huge benefit for him, but we shall see on Sunday (It was announced on Friday that Taysom Hill is starting). Atlanta is 3-1 since firing head coach Dan Quinn, so they’ve been able to fix some of their issues and their pass defense went from putrid to below average. They are a tad undervalued right now due to their bad start, but the Saints will still be able to cover this spread at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+10) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are 9-0 outright and are 7-2 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 36-10 win at home against the Bengals. They only have two blowout wins this season and they both came against the Ohio teams. They’ve been covering games, but they’ve really been inching them out by a few points most weeks, especially on the road. Pittsburgh’s biggest road win this season was a ten-point victory in Week 1 against the Giants. The Jaguars are 2-0 against the spread with QB Jake Luton as their starter. He outright lost both games, but he was able to keep it interesting against the Texans and Packers. He was helped greatly by the Jags run defense. I think the Steelers defense will be a little too much for Luton to ‘game manage’ against. I’m taking the Steelers to cover in Jacksonville.

Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns (-3.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

The Browns have scored less than ten points in three of their last four games. They’ve been limiting turnovers and running the ball, a lot. Their defense has been good in their last two games, but they had some stinkers right before those weeks. The Eagles are coming off a rather uninspiring 27-17 loss to the Giants. I don’t look at it as a bad loss because I’ve been vocal about how the Giants are way better than their record would suggest. The Eagles are getting their guys back healthy, but it may take a game or two for guys like RB Miles Sanders and WR Travis Fulgham to become consistent. I think they’ll look a lot better this week against the Browns. I’m taking the points in this one.

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (-3) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

The Detroit and Carolina are both struggling with injuries at quarterback. Lions QB Matthew Stafford has a ligament injury in his thumb and Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater has an MCL injury. If Bridgewater isn’t ready to play on Sunday, I think I would still stay with Carolina here. They have a pair of interesting backup quarterbacks (Will Grier & P.J. Walker). Both are expected to start on Sunday, but I’m more alarmed by Stafford’s injury since the injured thumb is on his throwing hand. The Lions have had trouble running the ball at times and are inconsistent. The Panthers will be without RB Christian McCaffrey again (shoulder), so their ground game will be hurt greatly by his absence. The reason I’m taking the Panthers is because I like their wideouts against the Lions secondary. I think they have the speed for Bridgewater to get the ball out of his hands fast.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

The Ravens are coming off a bad loss last Monday night. They allowed the Patriots to gain 173 yards on the ground on the way to a 23-17 upset win. They forced Ravens QB Lamar Jackson to throw and he had a rather average output by his standards. I think the Patriots just drew the gameplan on how to beat the Ravens. I expect a lot of work from Titans RB Derrick Henry on Sunday. I’m taking the points.

New England Patriots at Houston Texans (+1.5) – My pick is New England Patriots

I think the Patriots will use the same gameplan they used on Monday night against the Ravens. They will be running the ball and limiting turnovers from QB Cam Newton. The Texans have the worst run defense in the NFL, so I don’t expect much resistance from them. I haven’t been impressed by Houston since they forced overtime against Tennessee last month. I hate saying that they’ve already packed it in the for the season, but they haven’t shown me anything to change my opinion. I’m taking the Patriots to cover on the road.

New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers (-8.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

I don’t know what it is about the Chargers this season, but they’ve have close games every single week. They’ve only had one game decided by double-digits this season and it was just a ten-point win over the Jaguars. The Jets have played better with QB Joe Flacco in at quarterback, but they are still the Jets. They’ve been a horrendous road team this season. The Chargers have some injuries in the backfield, but it looks like DE Joey Bosa (concussion) should get cleared by Sunday. There is a risk of another close game for the Chargers, but against my better judgment, I’m taking them to cover this game. I just think they will be able to actually extend a lead and Chargers QB Justin Herbert will have another solid performance.

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (+3) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

This line confuses me. Miami are on a five-game winning streak and covered all of those games, yet they are only a 3.5 point favorite against Denver? The Broncos are coming off one of QB Drew Lock’s worst games of his young career and their defense gave up 37 points to the Raiders. Also, Lock is currently banged-up and has been limited in practice this week. Miami’s defense should be able to limit Denver’s inconsistent offense. I’m taking the Dolphins to cover.

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-7) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

The Cowboys are coming off their bye week and will have QB Andy Dalton back under center. He didn’t play well before suffering a concussion against Washington a few weeks ago. He will always be interception-prone, but can the Cowboys weak defense deal with any turnovers on offense? The Cowboys couldn’t even win games when QB Dak Prescott was throwing 400+ yards a game. The Cowboys have the worst run defense in the NFL and Vikings QB Dalvin Cook should be able to exploit that. I know the Vikings haven’t been consistent in covering spreads larger a field goal, but I think they matchup well against the Cowboys. I’m taking Minnesota to cover on Sunday.

Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

The Packers are a good road team against the spread. They had that one hiccup against the Bucs, but that was just a weird game. It just seemed like the entire team quit after QB Aaron Rodgers threw two picks early in the game. The Packers are coming off a rather bland performance last week in their 24-20 win at home against the Jaguars. They needed a late touchdown to seal the win. It doesn’t appear that RB Aaron Jones is 100% right now. He has had another week to get back to form. He has only averaged 3.0 yards per carry since returning from injury. The Colts defense is very good, so he has a tall task ahead of him. Indy is coming off a 34-17 win in Tennessee on Thursday night. The Titans are the best team the Colts have beaten this year. They’ve had a fairly easy schedule this year. I think the Packers are just a little better overall. Rodgers should have an notable advantage over the Colts pass defense. I’m taking the points in this one.

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders (+7) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

The Raiders have had a COVID-19 outbreak. They have numerous players that have either tested positive or have been in close contact with someone with the virus. There is a chance that this game gets pushed back a day or two, but we shall see. The Raiders are missing too many guys on defense for them to compete with the Chiefs. That could change if a few key starters on defense get activation off the COVID-19 list, but I have to take the Chiefs here.

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

This game could be close to the point spread. I’m just high on the Rams right now. I think they have the personnel on defense to match-up well against all the weapons QB Tom Brady has on offense. The Bucs are coming off a 46-23 win against the Panthers, but that game was tied at halftime. They can’t start off slow against the Rams. The Rams aren’t flashy on offense, but I think their defense limits Brady and forces a couple turnovers. I’m taking the points on Monday night.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 81-62-3

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob