I went 8-6 against the spread last week.

It doesn’t appear that there are any games in jeopardy of being canceled due to COVID-19. There are handful of cases in the NFL, but they’ve been isolated so far. With daily cases increasing at an alarming rate, it wouldn’t surprise me if we see a few games canceled in the coming weeks.

One interesting game this week is a face-off of rookie quarterbacks when the Los Angeles Chargers travel to the Miami Dolphins.

Which rookie QB will leave with the win, Justin Herbert or Tua Tagovailoa?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 10 of the 2020 NFL season.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+1) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

This is the first of two meetings this season. The Colts are coming off a rather uninspiring 24-10 loss at home to the Ravens. They weren’t very competitive in that game, but it was expected. Indianapolis hasn’t been able to play well against good teams this year. They’ve been able to take care of business against the bottom-half of the league so far this season. The Titans are on a little rough stretch having lost two of their last three games. The Titans should be able to bully the Colts on the line if they double-team DT DeForest Buckner. He’s been great this season, so RB Derrick Henry may need to avoid the middle of the line. Tennessee’s secondary may play a huge role in this game. If Colts QB Philip Rivers throws a pick or two, it will be hard for the Colts to win this game.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (+3) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

The Giants are only 2-7 outright, but they’ve been solid against the spread this year (6-3 ATS). They’ve covered five of their last six games. I think public is starting to notice since this line is much closer than it would have been two weeks ago. The Eagles are getting healthy on offense again and this should be a solid cover for the Eagles on Sunday.

Washington Football Team at Detroit Lions (-3.5) – My pick is Washington Football Team

Washington is coming off a close 23-20 loss to the Giants. They mounted a comeback late in the game, but it was too late. Washington QB Alex Smith threw three interceptions in that game. I can’t remember the last time he threw that many in a game. You could say it was because he’s rusty, too old or possibly physically-unable to be his former accurate self again. All of those things could be true, but I don’t see him being that bad against the Lions. If you take away their comeback win over Atlanta (Todd Gurley’s failed attempt to down himself), they’re probably one of the five-worst teams in the NFL. Detroit may win this game, but that extra half-point is enough for me to take the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers (-13) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

I probably shouldn’t have wasted a solid half-hour doing some research for this game. I just need to do some extra research when I’m faced with a double-digit point spread in the NFL. Jaguars QB Jake Luton was pretty good against the Texans in his debut. He spammed the ball to WR D.J. Chark and had a lot of success, but came up two points shy of Houston. The Packers were up 31-0 in the third quarter against the Niners last week. They took their foot off the gas and won the game 34-17. They should have a hell of an easier time scoring against the Jags this week. The Packers should have this covered by half-time and let’s hope they don’t let the Jags score some garbage time touchdowns. I’m taking Green Bay to cover on Sunday.

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

The Texans have an awful run defense and the Browns should be able to take advantage of that. Browns RB Nick Chubb is currently listed as questionable, but even if he doesn’t play, I like the chances of running backs Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson making a few big plays this weekend. Cleveland will lean on their running game and cover against Houston.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (+5.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I can’t really explain how the Saints beat the Buccaneers 38-3 last week. New Orleans could have won the game by 50+ if they didn’t ease up in the second-half. The Bucs never even attempted to get a running game going as they were playing from behind. Bucs QB Tom Brady had a bad game and threw three interceptions. This game may have been a double-digit point spread if not for that bad outing. The Panthers look like they will be without RB Christian McCaffrey again as he injured his shoulder after returning last week from a different injury. Brady will have this team ready to play and there’s no way they come into this game flat. The Bucs will bounce-back and cover in Carolina.

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (-4.5) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders

I wasn’t bullish on the Raiders at the start of the season, but they’ve been good against the spread lately (3-1 ATS in last four games). They are coming off a 31-26 win on the road against the Chargers. They were able to get some big plays on the ground early in the game and QB Derek Carr was able to make some big throws in the second-half to secure the win and cover. The Broncos are coming off a 34-27 loss against the Falcons. Denver mounted a late comeback effort by scoring three touchdowns in the fourth quarter, but it was too late. They are dealing with some nagging injuries coming into this game. Wide receivers Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy are on the injury report and are currently listed as questionable. Denver needs all their weapons on the field if they hope to keep this within a touchdown. I think the Raiders squeak out a cover at home on Sunday.

Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals (-2) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

This game could be a fun one to watch. The Cardinals are averaging more yards per game than any other team in the NFL. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray has a ton of weapons and he’s having a lot of success. He hasn’t faced a good defense since Week 1 (San Francisco). Murray has been torching some awful defenses this year: Seattle, Dallas, New York (Jets). Buffalo hasn’t been as solid on defense as they were last year, but they are so much better than any team Arizona has faced for many weeks. The Bills offense was going through a stagnant phase until last week. Bills QB Josh Allen was able to torch the Seahawks defense and they won the game 44-34. This should be a close one and I like the Bills outright, but I’ll be taking the points (just in case).

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins (-2.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

This should be another fun one to watch. Both of these rookie quarterbacks will want to outperform the other. Chargers QB Justin Herbert has kept his team close in the fourth quarter in just about every game he has played this season. He is coming off a 31-26 loss at home to the Raiders. It looks like he will be without some starters on his offensive line and possibly RB Justin Jackson (knee) for another game. He will have a lot on his plate this week. Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa is now 2-0 as the starter outright (2-0 ATS). The Dolphins have outright won five of their last six games (5-1 ATS). Miami’s defense played a huge role in last week’s win over Arizona. I think Herbert is missing a few too many impact players and will come short again this week. It will be close, but I’ll take the Dolphins to cover at home.

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-10) – My pick is New Orleans Saints

The Saints are coming off a huge blowout win over the Buccaneers. The 35-point win was surprising in many ways as the Saints haven’t been a particularly good team against the spread the last two seasons. They are just 3-5 against the spread this season. Saints QB Drew Brees is dealing with a shoulder injury and WR Michael Thomas is still trying to work his way back from an ankle injury early this season. It appears like the Saints will have both of them this Sunday. The Niners are missing so many key players right now and they added to the list after last week. They are without just about every major part of their offense. They are headed down a pretty dark path without all of these players. I’m taking the Saints to cover.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

Both of these teams are coming off losses in their last outing. The Seahawks have been pretty good about not letting their horrible defense hurt them too much. Their offense has done all the heavy lifting this season thanks to QB Russell Wilson. He looked to be a mere mortal after throwing a couple interceptions in the loss. The Rams are coming off a bye and had a rather surprising loss to the Dolphins in their previous game. They’ve been a much better home team this year and have struggled a tad on offense on the road. If their defense can limit Wilson on Sunday evening, their offense should be able to move the ball against Seattle. The Rams haven’t had a big output on offense since early this season. I think they will win this game by a field goal or more.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have some key players on the COVID-19 reserve list. Steelers TE Vance McDonald tested positive and a few players that had close contact with him were added to the list for precautionary move. As of late-Wednesday night, QB Ben Roethlisberger was on the list. He hasn’t tested positive and if he doesn’t test positive before Sunday, he will be able to play on Sunday. The Steelers and Bengals are both 6-2 against the spread this season. It’s easy to see why the Steelers are sitting at that record, but the Bengals was a unexpected. Cincinnati has played a rather easy schedule thus far. They did have an upset win over the Titans in their last game, but they are just 2-5-1 outright this season. They’ve been able to hang with some average teams. If Big Ben plays in this game, the Steelers easily cover. If QB Mason Rudolph starts, you may want to take the points. 

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (+7.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

The Patriots haven’t played well since QB Cam Newton tested positive for COVID-19. They were nearly beaten by the Jets last week. They needed some huge plays in the fourth quarter and a field goal in the final seconds to get the victory. The Ravens are a top-five team in the NFL and I don’t see them keeping this game within single-digits. I know Patriots head coach Bill Belichick will try to make Ravens QB Lamar Jackson throw, but he should have success against this year’s Patriots secondary. I’m taking the Ravens to cover.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+2.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have made a pivot on offense and are leaning on their running game a lot more. The change has helped them secure the ball better and QB Kirk Cousins hasn’t thrown an interception in their last two games. Vikings QB Dalvin Cook has combined for 369 yards on the ground in his last two games. He is averaging over seven yards per carry in those games. If the Bears can’t stop Cook and Mattison on Monday night, their offense won’t be able to keep up with the Vikings. The Bears defense is starting to crack and haven’t been able to bail out their lackluster offense. I’m taking the Vikings to cover on Monday Night Football.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 74-58-0

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob