I went 13-10-1 against the spread last week.
If you’ve been going hard on underdog moneylines in the Big Ten this season, you probably have enough for a gold boat right now. I think the point spreads have corrected quite a bit since teams like Penn State and Michigan are seeing single-digit point spreads now.
I didn’t notice any glaring point spread miscues in the Pac 12 last week. I think bettors handicapped those teams pretty well. I think they are still a little light on Washington State, but we will see after this week’s game against Oregon.
The marquee game this week is Wisconsin at Michigan. Can the Wolverines avoid starting the year 1-3?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 11 of the 2020-21 NCAA Football season (November 14th, 2020).
Vanderbilt at Kentucky (-17) – My pick is Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky’s bye week came at the perfect time since it has allowed QB Terry Wilson’s hand an extra week to heal. He is back at practice and it looks like he will play on Saturday. Kentucky’s defense has been the MVP for them so far this season, but the Wildcats have lost back-to-back games. Vanderbilt is a step lower than all of the talent they’ve played thus far, so Kentucky should have a big advantage in this game. I don’t see Vandy scoring more than single digits in this one and if WIlson plays, I’m taking the Wildcats to cover.
Miami at Virginia Tech (-2) – My pick is Miami Hurricanes
Virginia Tech is coming off an upset loss to Liberty. It was a quarterback showcase from both quarterbacks and I think this game will be very similar. The Hokies will have their hands full against Miami QB D’Eriq King. He’s played very well this season and his only poor performance was against Clemson early this season. The Hokies defense hasn’t been very good lately and I’m taking the Hurricanes to cover on Saturday.
Penn State at Nebraska (+3) – My pick is Penn State Nittany Lions
Both teams come into this game without a win on the year. Penn State was expected to be one of the better teams in the Big Ten, but after losses to Indiana, Ohio State and Maryland, it looks like we overrated the Nittany Lions this year. Nebraska was properly rated going into the season. They were expected to be below average and, ummm, they’ve delivered. Penn State are thin at running back, so they will need a big game from QB Sean Clifford. I think Penn State gets back on track with a cover at Nebraska,
Indiana at Michigan State (+7) – My pick is Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr. has turned the Hoosiers into a probable Big Ten contender. I knew he had some solid weapons at receiver, but he is making them look even better. WR Whop Philyor has become a consistent possession receiver for the Hoosiers. We all thought Michigan State would finish the season near the bottom of the Big Ten, so when they upset in-state rival Michigan, it turned heads. They followed up that win with a 49-7 blowout loss at Iowa, so it appears Michigan State QB Rocky Lombardi’s performance against the Wolverines was just an aberration. This point spread should probably be double-digits, so I think we are getting a bargain at seven points. I’m taking the Hoosiers to cover in East Lansing.
Northwestern at Purdue (+2.5) – My pick is Purdue Boilermakers
Both of these teams come into this game undefeated. They’ve been able to stay away from huge upsets in a volatile Big Ten. Northwestern started the year with a 43-3 blowout win at home against Maryland and then defeated Iowa and Nebraska the following weeks. Purdue start the season with a 24-20 upset win at home against Iowa and then won at Illinois. They were supposed to play Wisconsin last week, but it was canceled due to a COVID-19 outbreak in Wisconsin. I think the Wildcats are a bit overrated due to their rather pedestrian schedule thus far. I’m also a bit skeptical of Northwestern QB Peyton Ramsey. He transferred from Indiana and he didn’t impress me much while in Bloomington. He’s a game manager quarterback and Northwestern may need to hang with the Boilermakers, whose offense is underrated. I’m taking the points in this one.
Notre Dame at Boston College (+13.5) – My pick is Boston College Eagles
Notre Dame is coming off an upset overtime win over Trevor Lawrence-less Clemson. Notre Dame got a big game from RB Kyren Williams, who scored three touchdowns. He should have another solid performance this week as Boston College’s defense has been a weak spot for the Eagles. Boston College QB Phil Jurkovec started his college career at Notre Dame and just transferred to BC this season. He’s been very good this year having thrown 15 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He will need a big game to keep this one close. Notre Dame hasn’t been able to cover double-digit point spreads very well this season. Also, Boston College has been good at home this year. I’m taking the points in a letdown game..
USC at Arizona (+14) – My pick is USC Trojans
USC started the season lukewarm and needed two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to squeak out a one-point victory over Arizona State. QB Kedon Slovis put up a lot of yards, but too many drives in the game crawled to a stop soon after crossing midfield. Arizona hopes the third-year head coach Kevin Sumlin’s tenure is a good one. I can’t say that any of his recent recruits have wow’d me, so I expect them to finish in the middle-of-the-pack in the Pac 12. They will need to score a lot of points to keep up with USC’s passing attack. I think the Trojans shook the rust off and will be much more efficient than they were last game. I wish this spread was a point or two smaller, but I’ll still take USC to cover.
Oregon at Washington State (+10.5) – My pick is Washington State Cougars
Both of these teams won their debuts last week. Oregon beat Stanford 35-14 and Washington State beat Oregon State 38-28 (and both covered the spread). Washington State had to replace head coach Mike Leach, who left for Mississippi State. They hired Hawaii head coach Nick Rolovich, who ran a pass-heavy run-and-shoot offense there. Washington State should still pass quite a bit, but they relied on their running game in their first game of the year. Washington State freshman QB Jayden de Laura was highly-recruited and he’s more athletic than any quarterback that’s been at Washington State in a long, long time. If the Cougars can stop Oregon’s running game, I think they’ll keep this one close. I’m taking the points.
Wisconsin at Michigan (+4.5) – My pick is Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin opened the year with a 45-7 win at home against Illinois, but then had to take the next two weeks off due to a COVID-19 outbreak on campus. We haven’t gotten to see a lot from them this season. On the flipside, what we’ve gotten to see from Michigan has been very inconsistent. They are 1-2 on the year as they were upset in back-to-back games by Michigan State and Indiana. This is the worst defense head coach Jim Harbaugh has had in his tenure with the school. The Hoosiers didn’t have trouble moving the ball last week. The Wolverines offense isn’t explosive enough to make up for their miscues on defense. I think Harbaugh will suffer his third-straight loss and the Badgers should cover on Saturday.
California at Arizona State (-3.5) – My pick is California Golden Bears
California had their debut canceled due to numerous positive COVID-19 tests, so this will be their first game of the season. Arizona State couldn’t hold on to a lead and allowed USC to comeback in the fourth quarter. Cal has a lot of returning talent on offense. Head coach Justin Wilcox has improved this team every year since he took over four seasons ago. I expect QB Chase Garbers to have a good year for the Golden Bears. The Sun Devils are expected to finish near the top of the Pac 12, but I think Cal will give them a hell of a game on Saturday. I didn’t like what I saw from ASU at the end of last week’s game. I’m taking the points (and I might lay a few jellybeans on the Cal moneyline).
QUICK HITS
TCU at West Virginia (-3) – My pick is West Virginia
South Florida at Houston (-14) – My pick is Houston
Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech (+6.5) – My pick is Pitt
Army at Tulane (-5.5) – My pick is Army
Colorado at Stanford (-7) – My pick is Colorado
Baylor at Texas Tech (-1.5) – My pick is Baylor
Iowa at Minnesota (+3.5) – My pick is Iowa
Middle Tennessee at Marshall (-23.5) – My pick is Marshall
Fresno State at Utah State (+10) – My pick is Fresno State
Louisville at Virginia (-3.5) – My pick is Virginia
BONUS PICKS!
North Texas at UAB (-14) – My pick is UAB
Texas State at Georgia Southern (-10) – My pick is Georgia Southern
Coastal Carolina at Troy (+10.5) – My pick is Coastal Carolina
South Alabama at UL-Lafayette (-15.5) – My pick is South Alabama
SMU at Tulsa (-2.5) – My pick is SMU
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 99-97-2
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.