I didn’t have a good outcome against the spread last week.
I finished 11-14, by far the worst week I’ve had in a couple years. I want to chalk it up to having to pick 25 games from maybe 30 possible games. I usually pick the best 25 games out of maybe 50+ games on a full normal week. I can omit some games that are a bit too close to call. I don’t have that luxury this season, but that should change once some of the other conferences start to play later this Fall.
The marquee game of the week is Miami (FL) at Clemson. Can the Hurricanes upset the #1-ranked Tigers?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 6 of the 2020-21 NCAA Football season (October 10th, 2020).
Tulane at Houston (-7) – My pick is Tulane Green Wave
Houston starts their season on Thursday night against Tulane. Houston lost last year’s meeting 38-31, a game that saw Tulane score 17 points in the forth quarter to win the game. The Cougars are looking to avenge that loss. Houston’s biggest issue was on defense last year. I think experience makes a world of difference and will be much better this year. Unfortunately, the Green Wave have a strong running game and have already played a few games this year. Houston could struggle to ‘knock the rust off’, especially on defense. I’m taking the points in this one.
Louisville at Georgia Tech (+4.5) – My pick is Louisville Cardinals
Neither of these teams have started the season well. The Cardinals opened the year with a win over Western Kentucky, but have lost back-to-back games against ACC talent. The Yellow Jackets opened their year with an upset win over Florida State, but fell on their faces against UCF and Syracuse. I honestly don’t think the Florida State win was that huge, since the Seminoles have been bad since. Louisville’s defense should be the key in this game as they will have a strong advantage against a lackluster GT offense. I’m taking Louisville to cover.
LSU at Missouri (+14) – My pick is LSU Tigers
LSU didn’t start the year with a win, but they bounced back last week with a big win over Vanderbilt. Their defense played much better against a lesser SEC opponent. Missouri started the year off against two ranked teams (Alabama and Tennessee) and as expected, lost in both games. The Tigers have been awful against the spread in recent memory as they are 1-8 against the spread in their last nine games. The Tigers are not a good team and they just can’t hang against the top-half of the SEC. I’m taking LSU to cover on Saturday.
Virginia Tech at North Carolina (-5) – My pick is Virginia Tech Hokies
Both teams come into this game 2-0 outright and have split their games against the spread. The Hokies are coming off a 38-31 win at Duke last week. Their defense is worrying me as it was such a strong group last year, but they’ve allowed two average ACC teams to score 24 & 31 points this year. North Carolina squeaked by Boston College 26-22 last week. I’m starting to worry a little about QB Sam Howell. He just played at the level I expected. I worry that he won’t be there if the Tar Heels need him in a shoot-out. Virginia Tech’s offense leans on their running game and if they win in the trenches, UNC could have trouble stretching out any lead large enough to cover this game. I’m taking the points.
Texas vs Oklahoma (-1.5) – My pick is Oklahoma Sooners
This game is being played at a neutral site in Dallas (Cotton Bowl). Both of these teams have struggled in back-to-back games. Texas split their last two games with an overtime win against Texas Tech and last week’s loss to TCU. Their defense is a real issue this season. Oklahoma didn’t fare so well outright as their lost back-to-back games (Kansas State & at Iowa State). They were favored big in both games, so it makes their start look even worse. I think this is the week Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler puts everything together and takes advantage of the weak Texas pass defense. It will be close, but I think they cover this one in the Cotton Bowl.
Tennessee at Georgia (-12.5) – My pick is Tennessee Volunteers
The Volunteers are 2-0 outright (1-0-1 ATS), but they faced two lower-level SEC teams. The Bulldogs are also 2-0 (1-1 ATS), but do have a win they can hang their hat on when they beat Auburn 27-6 last week. They got a good game out of QB Stetson Bennett. I know quarterback has been a bit of an issue early this season, so it was nice to see Bennett have success. I’m not sure how consistent he will be throughout the season. I think he will have a few games that could be forgettable. The Vols defense is good, but not a top-level SEC defense. That being said, I think they could make a few late stops and limit Georgia from covering this spread. The Bulldogs should win, but I’ll take the points.
Alabama at Ole Miss (+24) – My pick is Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama failed to cover in their opener against Missouri, but was able to easily cover an 18-point spread at home against Texas A&M. Many thought that game could be close, but the Tide hit the gas in the second quarter and never looked back. Alabama QB Mac Jones threw for 435 yards with four touchdowns. Mississippi is coming off an overtime win against Kentucky. Their defense has been worse than expected. They’ve allowed 51 and 41 games in their two outings this year. If they allowed that many points against Kentucky, I think Alabama should beat those numbers and cover on Saturday.
Mississippi State at Kentucky (-2) – My pick is Mississippi State Bulldogs
Kentucky come into this game winless on the year (and winless against the spread). I was down on the Wildcats coming into the season. They lost some talent and I thought they could struggle to keep up on offense against some of the better teams in the SEC. Mississippi State may have had one of the biggest one week swings in recent memory. They opened the year with a 44-34 win at LSU, but then lost to Arkansas saw at home the following week. The Razorbacks are expected to finish near the bottom of the SEC this year. MSU QB KJ Costello threw three interceptions, which was a dagger to the heart. I think he will get back on track against Kentucky. The Bulldogs will throw non-stop with Mike Leach as head coach. Ole Miss was able to throw at-will against Kentucky last week. I’m taking the points in this one (and I may throw a few jellybeans on the MSU moneyline).
Florida State at Notre Dame (-20.5) – My pick is Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame are 2-0 outright (1-1 ATS) on the year. They had to cancel their last game due to a COVID-19 outbreak. They seem to have controlled it on the team and have been able to practice. The Irish looked great in their last game by beating South Florida 52-0. Florida State are coming off a win, but they barely scraped by Jacksonville State 41-24. How can a 17-point win be ‘barely scraping by’? The Seminoles were losing this game in the third quarter. They scored three touchdowns late in the game to make the win look better than it was. I’m down on Florida State this year and think the Irish should cover against one of the weakest teams in the conference.
Miami (FL) at Clemson (-14) – My pick is Miami Hurricanes
Both teams come into this game 3-0 outright. Miami has covered all three of their games and Clemson has failed to cover a game this season. None of the Tigers games have been close, but point spreads are large due to the sky-high expectations we have for the Tigers this season. This should be a fun game to watch. I like both quarterbacks and we should see great play from that position. The Hurricanes have been cruising along in games because they have limited turnovers. They have won the turnover battle and their defense will need to stay hot against Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence. I think Clemson is still overrated by a few points in this game. The Tigers should win outright, but I have to take the points.
QUICK HITS
South Carolina at Vanderbilt (+13.5) – My pick is South Carolina
Duke at Syracuse (+2.5) – My pick is Duke
UL Monroe at Liberty (-19) – My pick is Liberty
Florida at Texas A&M (+6.5) – My pick is Florida
Coastal Carolina at UL Lafayette (-7) – My pick is Coastal Carolina
NC State at Virginia (-8.5) – My pick is NC State
Texas Tech at Iowa State (-12.5) – My pick is Iowa State
Pittsburgh at Boston College (+6.5) – My pick is Boston College
Kansas State at TCU (-9) – My pick is Kansas State
Temple at Navy (+3.5) – My pick is Temple
BONUS PICKS!
Texas-San Antonio at BYU (-35) – My pick is UTSA
Texas State at Troy (-7.5) – My pick is Texas State
Middle Tennessee at Florida International (-4) – My pick is FIU
Florida Atlantic at Southern Miss (+2.5) – My pick is FAU
UTEP at Louisiana Tech (-14) – My pick is UTEP
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 39-37-1
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.