I went 9-6 against the spread last week.

This will be the last week with a full slate of sixteen games (unless there’s a COVID-19 cancellation) for a couple months.

We are starting to get a good feel for which teams are playoff-caliber and which ones are in for a long season. The point spreads are a little tighter this week. It could be time to jump off the bandwagon if point spreads start to creep into the double-digits.

Can Ravens QB Lamar Jackson bounce-back from a rough passing outing against the Chiefs?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 4 of the 2020 NFL season.

Denver Broncos at New York Jets (-1) – My pick is Denver Broncos

This is the first of two games featuring two winless teams. The Broncos and Jets are both hurt by some injuries at key positions. Broncos QB Drew Lock, RB Phillip Lindsay, WR Courtland Sutton, CB A.J. Bouye and LB Von Miller are all injured and have just devastated the team. It appears that Lindsay is set to return on Thursday, so their backfield will have a few solid options. The Jets are dealing with injuries to RB Le’Veon Bell and just about every productive receiver has been out the last two games. There’s a chance that wide receivers Chris Hogan and Jamison Crowder could play, but they are currently listed as questionable. The Broncos announced plans to start QB Brett Rypien over Jeff Driskel, after he relieved Driskel and had some success moving the ball late against the Bucs. This could be an ugly game to watch. The Jets are coming off back-to-back game in which they didn’t get come close to the point spread. The Broncos defense is stronger than the Jets offense is at the moment. I think Denver will squeak out a win on Thursday night.

Baltimore Ravens at Washington Football Team (+13) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

We will start to see more double-digit point spread as we progress into the season. They used to be a near-automatic underdog pick, but the favored teams have been covering these spread more the last two or three seasons. If Washington DE Chase Young was healthy, I could be talked into picking the Footballers, but he’s listed as doubtful with a groin injury. I like DE Montez Sweat, but the Ravens can just double-team his side. I don’t think Washington has the speed up front to keep Ravens QB Lamar Jackson in the pocket. I’m taking the Ravens to cover in D.C.

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions (+4.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions

The Lions stumbled out of the gates by suffering a fourth quarter comeback by the Bears in Week 1 and allowing 39 unanswered points against the Packers in Week 2. They did bounce-back with a win against the Cardinals last week, and have WR Kenny Golladay to thank for the win. The Lions freed up the box for RB Adrian Peterson and they had favorable match-ups for their other receivers. The Saints lost back-to-back games to the Raiders and Packers. They were without WR Michael Thomas, who is currently questionable with an ankle injury. If he can’t suit up, the Lions should keep this one close. I haven’t liked what I’ve seen from QB Drew Brees. I’m not saying he’s lost a step, but it’s clear that the offense is just average without Thomas. I’m taking the points in this game.

Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This one could be close to the point spread. The Chargers were dealt a big blow when CB Chris Harris Jr. injured his foot last week and they also lost DE Melvin Ingram to a knee injury. The Chargers also saw a couple injuries on their offensive line, those players are both currently questionable for Sunday. If the Bucs had WR Chris Godwin, it would be a no-brainer, but without him, it’s a close to the spread. I’m taking the home team to cover in this one.

Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears (+2.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

The Bears benched QB Mitchell Trubisky in favor of QB Nick Foles. He took over last week and led a comeback win in Atlanta. They were dealt a huge blow in that game by losing RB Tarik Cohen for the season with an ACL tear. The Colts are coming off back-to-back wins (and covers) against the Jets and Vikings. Their defense has been a bright spot on the team. The came into the season very underrated. They were also dealt a few blows by losing RB Marlon Mack and wide receivers Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman Jr. for an extended period of time with lower body injuries. The Colts have used a run-first offense the last two weeks focused around rookie RB Jonathan Taylor. They also may have an emerging star in TE Mo Alie-Cox. Colts head coach Frank Reich was the Eagles offensive coordinator when Foles won the Super Bowl a couple seasons ago. He knows him well and I think that will come in handy for the Colts defense. I’m taking the Colts to cover in Chicago.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (+3.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals suffered their first loss o the year last week against the Lions. Detroit was able to force three interceptions and that was the difference in that game. The Panthers offense has been lost without RB Christian McCaffrey. Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater can only do so much and he’s gotten the most out of WR Robby Anderson. The Panthers defense isn’t on par with their last few squads. They lack a star on that side of the ball. I’m taking the Cardinals to cover in Carolina.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-3) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have lost back-to-back games after opening the season with a win over the Colts. They are coming off a rather poor performance last Thursday in a 31-13 loss at home to the Dolphins. The Bengals earned a tie last week against the Eagles. I can’t say they were impressive in that game as the Eagles shot themselves in the foot due to turnovers. This should be a close one and the Jaguars playmakers on defense should give them decent field position. I’m taking the points in what could be a low-scoring contest.

Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans (-3.5) – My pick is Houston Texans

Keep an eye on the news as failed COVID-19 tests could delay this game. The Vikings played the Titans last week and Tennessee have already had nine positive tests that will push back their game against the Steelers by a day or two. The Texans faced three of the best teams in the AFC to start the year and find themselves winless on the season. The Vikings are also winless and have faced lesser competition. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins has been a slow starter in recent years and it appears he is following that trend. He was able to have a better game last week when he focused on getting the ball to rookie WR Justin Jefferson. His defense failed him by allowing two late field goals and lost to the Titans by a point. The Texans are a better team than their record would suggest. I’m glad this point spread is this low as I think it should be closer to -6. I’m taking the Texans to cover at home.

Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins (+6) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks QB Russell Wilson might be the best quarterback in the NFL. He is completing 76.7% of his passes and broke a record with 14 passing touchdowns in his first three games. Oh, and he only has one interception in 103 passing attempts on the season. He could be without RB Chris Carson, who as the victim of a cheap shot when a defender twisted his knee after the play. He is currently listed as questionable, and if he doesn’t play, running backs Carlos Hyde and Travis Homer should do an adequate job filling in. The Dolphins are coming off a 31-13 win over the Jaguars on Thursday. Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick had his most efficient game of the year by completing 18 of 20 passes with two touchdown passes (and a rushing touchdown). This game will come down to the pass defense of both teams. The Seahawks have allowed some big passing numbers to quarterbacks this year. They are currently ranked as the worst defense in the entire league. The Dolphins have allowed a few big games as well as they’re ranked 25th in the league. If Miami would need Fitzpatrick to air out the ball to keep up with Seattle. He just can’t avoid throwing a couple interceptions if he is forced to throw 35+ times. I’m taking Seattle to cover in Miami.

Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

This should be another game with a lot of passing yards. The Cowboys are currently 28th in pass defense, but have been able to overcome that weakness by being the #1 passing offense in the NFL. This has led to some high-scoring affairs and they’ve needed QB Dak Prescott to carry the team. The Browns are 2-1 (1-2 ATS) on the season. They’ve relied heavily on their ground game, as they have tried to limit passing attempts to avoid turnovers. Browns QB Baker Mayfield will need to throw the ball more in this game. Can he avoid throwing a few interceptions? That will be the key to this game. The Cowboys have struggled in the first-half of games. If the Browns can get out to a lead early in this game, they could lean on their running game to drain the clock. If they can do that, they can limit Mayfield’s turnover risk. I’m taking the points in this one.

New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams (-13) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

This feels like a sucker bet, but after watching the Giants shit the bed against the backup Niners unit. I don’t see them faring well against the Rams. Los Angeles may not even need a big game from QB Jared Goff, but the Giants did allow Niners backup QB Nick Mullens to throw 343 yards. I don’t see the Giants putting up many points at all, so the Rams may not even need to break the 20-point mark to cover in this game. I’m taking the Rams to cover at home.

Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders (+3) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

The Raiders are 2-1 (2-1 ATS) on the season. They are coming off a 36-20 loss in New England. They allowed the Patriots to gain 250 yards on the ground. The Raiders didn’t stand much of a chance with the Patriots having the ball for nearly ten minutes more in the game. The Bills don’t have a dynamic ground game, but QB Josh Allen is underrated when he carries the ball. I would like to see him tuck the ball into his body more, as teams will figure out how to strip the ball the more they see him. This will be a close battle for most of the game, but the Bills defense is just too talented and will stymy the Raiders. I’m taking the Bills to cover in Vegas.

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-7) – My pick is New England Patriots

The Chiefs are 3-0 (2-1 ATS) and are coming off a strong 34-20 win at Baltimore. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes had five total touchdowns (4 passing, 1 rushing). They were able to limit Ravens QB Lamar Jackson as he only connected on 15 of 28 attempts for 97 passing yards. He was far more effective on the ground by gaining 83 yards on nine attempts. The Patriots are coming off win at home against the Raiders. They are 2-1 (2-1 ATS) on the season, but could easily be 3-0 if they could have gained one more yard in their loss to the Seahawks. The reason that I’m picking the Patriots to cover is due to the Chiefs run defense. They allowed Jackson a few big gains and they couldn’t stop Texans RB David Johnson in Week 1. They even allowed 183 rushing yard in Week 2 against the Chargers. The Chiefs may still win this game due to their prolific offense, but it will be closer than expected.

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-7) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

The injury report for this game is as long as ‘War and Peace’. The Niners should get TE George Kittle back, and QB Jimmy Garoppolo and RB Raheem Mostert are both questionable. The Eagles have seen key injuries to their receiving corps and to their already porous offensive line. The Eagles best healthy receiver is currently WR Greg Ward Jr., a former college quarterback. They suffered another huge blow last week when they lost TE Dallas Goedert for the foreseeable future with an ankle injury. The Eagles only receiving weapon left is TE Zach Ertz. The Niners still have some playmakers on both sides of the ball and the Eagles have played like one of the worst teams in the entire league. I’m taking the Niners to cover.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-7.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

This could be another huge passing game this week. The Packers have the #2 offense in the NFL and the Falcons total defense only trails the Seahawks at the bottom of the league. The Falcons have the #3 passing attack in the NFL, but haven’t gotten much from their running game. The Packers are inadequate at stopping the pass, but Saints QB Drew Brees had his best game of the year against Green Bay. The Falcons pass defense is poor and the Packers young receiving corps is underrated. They should have a big game, unless Green Bay get out to a large lead and just feed running backs Aaron jones and Jamaal Williams on Monday night. The extra half-point scares me a little, but I’m taking the Packers to cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (OFF) – My pick is TBD

This game is postponed and depending on future positive tests for COVID-19, this should take place on Monday or Tues. I will have my pick later in the week once a betting line is on the board.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 28-19-0

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob