I went 10-4-2 against the spread last week.

The playoff picture is becoming clear now that we are just three weeks away from the end of the regular season. It appears that the NFC East is the weakest link in the NFL. The winner of the division may only have a record of 9-7, but that’s only if the Eagles or Cowboys win the rest of their games (which is unlikely).

Can the Patriots get back to winning or can the Bengals score the upset on Sunday?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 15 of the 2019 NFL season.

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-14.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

I usually shy away from double-digit point spreads in the NFL, especially on Thursdays, but the Jets are such a horrible road team and the Ravens offense can be quite explosive. The Jets failed to cover in back-to-back games against bad teams (Bengals & Dolphins). The Ravens are just clicking right now and I don’t see the Jets being more than just a small pothole in their way. I’m taking the Ravens to cover at home.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+6) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

The Panthers are playing bad right now. You can point the finger at their defense, which has been dog shit, but their offense isn’t helping them at all. It used to be that they could lean on RB Christian McCaffrey, but teams are just strangling the line and the Panthers offense isn’t as prolific. Carolina QB Kyle Allen is trying to throw down the field, but he is throwing more interceptions. Seattle is dealing with injury issues after losing RB Rashaad Penny for the season and defensive studs like Jadeveon Clowny and Ziggy Ansah are nursing injuries that may keep them out of the game. I still think they have enough healthy talent to cover this spread on the road. Carolina has been bad at home and Seattle is an improved road team.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+4.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have failed to cover in their last four games. They were overvalued for a time after beating the Bills and Bears, so some of the point spreads were quite advantageous. I don’t think I’ve picked the Eagles to cover in a long time. The Redskins have improved with rookie QB Dwayne Haskins under center. They did suffer a big blow after losing RB Derrius Guice to a MCL sprain. They are going to miss him the rest of the year. If this point spread was -7.5, I’d take the Redskins, but the Eagles are finally properly rated and this point spread is attainable. I’m taking the Eagles to cover.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

The Titans are playing great at the right time. A quarterback change was needed and the proof is in their recent performance. Not only is RB Derrick Henry running like a mad man, but QB Ryan Tannehill is playing like Dan Marino out there. One of the reasons for Tannehill’s uptick in play is rookie WR A.J. Brown. He’s a game-changing talent that can break a huge run on a short pass. The Texans defense is vulnerable right now after allowing Broncos rookie QB Drew Lock to carve them up on Sunday. It was a huge letdown after upsetting the Patriots the week before. In hindsight, we now know that the Patriots offense is nowhere near the same as in year’s past, so maybe the Texans win over them wasn’t a statement win. The home team have won and covered in the last six meetings against each other. The Titans should take care of the Texans and cover on Sunday.

Miami Dolphins at New York Giants (-3.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

Giants QB Eli Manning nearly got a win on Monday Night Football against the Eagles. The Eagles came back and won in overtime. If you watched that game, the Giants really only played well in the second quarter. Manning only completed 50% of his passes and the Eagles were able to make some adjustments. Manning is likely to get another start while the ankle of rookie QB Daniel Jones heals up. Both the Dolphins and Giants are pretty bad, but I see them on the same tier. Miami has actually won some games recently and the Giants haven’t won a single game since late-September. The Dolphins will keep this one close at the very least, if not win this game outright. I’m taking the points.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-10) – My pick is Denver Broncos

The Chiefs spanked the Broncos the last time they played early this season. It was the game that Mahomes had to leave due to a knee injury. The Broncos offense was unable to do anything and it was one of the last games QB Joe Flacco started for the Broncos. Denver has been playing great since rookie QB Drew Lock took over as starter two games ago. The Broncos went from a run-heavy offense to a team that can do both well. The Chiefs are coming off a big win against the Patriots and they’ve covered in three of their last four games. Kansas City may very well cover against Denver, but I think it will be much closer than many think. I liked Lock in college and thought he was one of the better QBs in last year’s draft class and I think he will come through big in this game. I’m taking the points.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-5) – My pick is Chicago Bears

The Bears are improving and they are positioning themselves for a potential playoff spot, but they need to win the next three games to really have a legitimate shot. They really stunk it up early this season and they may have dug a hole that was too big. Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky has played well during this recent stretch of games. He’s finding WR Anthony Miller more and RB David Montgomery is having more success between the tackles. The Packers have been a .500 betting team over the last six games. They also tend to stick right with their divisional opponents. Nearly all of their games against the NFC North have been within a score. I think this will happen again. The Bears will keep this close and I am taking the points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (+3) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs have their flaws as a team, but they just continue to do the same things on offense and it will eventually work. Sure, QB Jameis Winston will throw a few interceptions, but he will most likely throw just as many touchdowns in that game. The Lions have a lot of injuries on offense. They are on their third quarterback and this week saw WR Marvin Jones and TE T.J. Hockensen land on IR. The Lions just won’t be able to hang with the Bucs on offense. Tampa Bay should cover on Sunday against Detroit.

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (+9.5) – My pick is New England Patriots

I think it’s time for the the Patriots to get a cover. I’m sure this line would have been +14.5 or greater just two weeks ago. Now that they’ve lost a couple in a row, and failed to cover in four of their last five games, there could finally be some value in picking New England. I just don’t have any faith in QB Andy Dalton being able to throw on the Patriots secondary. I predict a defensive touchdown in this one. I’m taking the Patriots to cover on the road.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-6.5) – My pick is Oakland Raiders

I really want the Jaguars to turn things around because I think QB Gardner Minshew is a likable guy, but I don’t see it happening. Their defense has just given up on the coach for the second year in a row. It’s clear to me that the Jaguars needs a coaching change before next season. Their defense just seems slow in games as they get behind by a lot and their offense doesn’t have the weapons to come back from a large deficit. The Raiders are getting RB Josh Jacobs back from a shoulder injury that kept him out last week. I don’t love the Raiders, but they are a decent home team and should cover.

Cleveland Browns at Arizona Cardinals (+2) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

If the Cardinals had any semblance of a pass defense, I may rethink my pick, but Arizona just can’t stop anything through the air. Arizona is exactly the team Browns fans want right now in hopes of turning around a very lost season for sophomore QB Baker Mayfield. He needs to get his confidence back and I think he will have a very good game. I’m taking the Browns to cover in Arizona.

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

This line should probably be greater, but the Chargers crushed the Jaguars last week. It made the Chargers look like a good team, but just look at the handful of games before that game. They are a very average team and they aren’t a very good home team. The Vikings have dealt with some injuries, but they are getting healthy. When they are at 100%, they are one of the better teams in the NFC. I don’t think the Chargers are at the same talent level and the Vikings should be able to win and cover the spread.

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-11) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

The Falcons are dealing with a ton of injuries on offense. They could be without WR Julio Jones again and they don’t have many healthy receivers left. The Niners defense is already top-notch and when you start adding injuries on top of that, the Falcons really don’t stand much chance in this game. Atlanta is already getting an early ‘gg’ from San Francisco. I’m taking the Niners to cover on Sunday.

Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (+1) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Rams looked pretty average just a few weeks ago, but QB Jared Goff is playing better than he has at any point this season. WR Robert Woods could be the reason Goff is having a lot of success right now. The Rams defense has also seen some new life come into their bodies. The Cowboys are facing the Rams at the wrong time. Dallas is struggling on both sides of the ball right now and the Rams are playing their best football. It could be a long day for Dallas. I’m taking the Rams to cover on Sunday.

Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

What does it take for the Bills to get some respect? Their defense did an good job deending against Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and held him to his least amount of total yards this season. Buffalo still lost the game by a touchdown, but their defense is among the best in the NFL. The Steelers have been an above average team, but injuries continue to be their biggest issue. They have a long list of guys on offense that are all banged up and may or may not play this week. It looks like RB James Conner (shoulder) and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) will play, but TE Vance McDonald suffered a concussion last week and is currently questionable. The Bills should keep this one close and could win this outright, so I’m taking the points.

Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (-8) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

The Colts rarely get beaten by more than one score when QB Jacoby Brissett is playing. He has an ability to just make smart decisions in the redzone and convert third downs in tight games. This is a big stage and the Saints are clearly the better team, but the Colts just seem to hang around in games against good teams. The Saints will most likely win, but I can’t pick them to cover this large of a spread. I’ll take the points on Monday Night Football.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 119-89-5

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob