I went 9-7 against the spread last week.
We have a full slate of games every week from this point forward. It’s just more opportunities for gamblers to try to break even or fall farther in the hole. I’m in the black for the year and I’m going to play it a bit conservative this week and not lay down any above average amounts. I dipped into my profits a bit on Black Friday.
There are a few marquee games this week with Baltimore facing Buffalo and Kansas City traveling to New England. The outcomes of both of those games will definitely have an effect on the AFC playoff race.
Can the 49ers keep the game close against the Saints?
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 14 of the 2019 NFL season.
Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (+3) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys
Both of these teams played last Thursday with different outcomes. The Cowboys were upset by the Bills and the offense didn’t look very good in the loss. The Bears faced the Lions, who started their third-string quarterback. Chicago never pulled away and only won the game by four points. The Bears have been an awful betting team this season (3-9 ATS) and I don’t like their match-up against the Cowboys. The Cowboys offensive line should have a lot of success against the Bears front-seven. Dallas will get back on track with a cover in Chicago.
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-2.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers
Both teams have been very good betting teams this year. The Saints haven’t been as hot lately and a bit inconsistent against the spread since QB Drew Brees returned. They’ve only lost one game outright since Week 2, but are 2-2 against the spread in their last four games. The Niners are coming off a close 20-17 loss against possible MVP Lamar Jackson. They’ve did the best they could and held Jackson to only 206 total yards. I think their defense will cause a lot of disruptions and possibly force a couple turnovers. I have to take the Niners to cover in the Superdome.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-8.5) – My pick is Cleveland Browns
The Bengals just won their first game of the season and QB Andy Dalton didn’t play half-bad in his return as their starter. That being said, the betting line should probably be double-digits. The Browns won three of their last four games and their offense is finally moving the ball without throwing an interception or fumbling once a quarter. Jets WR Robby Anderson had a season-best game against the Bengals last week. If they can’t stop the deep ball threat, the Browns should be able to hang at least 28 points. I’m taking the Browns to cover at home.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-13) – My pick is Detroit Lions
The Lions started their third-string quarterback David Blough against the Bears and he played pretty well. Not only does the Lions have a third-string QB, but RB Bo Scarbrough is maybe their fourth running back. I actually think they are a better team with Blough under center than with Jeff Driskel. The Vikings have failed to cover in four of their last five games. They are a good team, but they don’t have pull-away ability. The Vikings will most likely win this game by more than a touchdown, but I think they’ll fall a few points short of a cover.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons owned the Panthers just a couple weeks ago. They dominated Carolina QB Kyle Allen and picked him off four times. The Falcons missed some players last week in their loss to the Saints and it’s still unknown if TE Austin Hooper and WR Julio Jones will be available on Sunday. The Panthers also have injury issues and a concussion could keep TE Greg Olsen out. If Olsen doesn’t play, it severely cripples Carolina’s offense. Keep an eye on the injury report this week and see if Olsen or Jones will suit up. I am taking Atlanta to cover.
Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers (-13) – My pick is Washington Redskins
The Redskins might be onto something with this two-headed rushing attack that led to a win last week. Derrius Guice and Adrian Peterson dominated the Panthers and rookie QB Dwayne Haskins didn’t have to do much to get the win. If Washington’s offensive strategy works, that will limit the time of possession for the Packers. Green Bay is good enough to win, but they won’t be able to cover this large spread if the Redskins control the ball. I am taking the points.
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (-9.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos
The Texans are getting the point spread bump after beating the Patriots last week. Houston had a great first-half, but the Patriots closed in on them late in the game. Denver beat the Chargers last week in rookie QB Drew Lock’s first start. They got off to a 14-0 start, but the Chargers tied it up in the fourth quarter. Denver hit a field goal to win the game as time expired. This line should probably be -6.5, but they are being overrated by a couple points due to their win over New England. Houston may win, but they’ve only beaten an opponent by double-digits just twice this year. I have to take the points here.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (+6) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens
The Bills have been great this year and they are finally getting some love. I’ve been touting their defense all season…but I think they will have trouble with the Ravens. The Bills lose when they are out-gained on the ground. That is almost automatic against the Ravens. Their secondary won’t be a huge factor if Jackson only throws the ball 23 times a game. I expect the Ravens to spam the running game and only have Jackson throw close to TEs and RBs. I have to take the Ravens to cover, their offense is just a tad too explosive.
Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts
The Bucs are turnover-prone and have been a horrible home team this season (0-5 ATS at home). They can score points, but their mistakes really leave their defense high and dry. The Colts have been solid on the road and they are a very good fourth quarter team. Their biggest issue is the kicking game, which can sometimes cause them to scramble to make up a missed extra point or field goal. I think QB Jacoby Brissett will play smart and safe with TE Jack Doyle getting plenty of work. I’m taking the points.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-5.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins
I was on the Jets bandwagon until last week. Their loss to Cincinnati was a real bummer. On top of that, QB Sam Darnold is banged up with rib and knee injuries. He’s expected to start, but there’s no way he’s 100%. The Dolphins are playing pretty good of late and their passing game finally clicking with TE Mike Gesicki turning into one of the best tight ends in the AFC. If Darnold was healthy, I may have a different pick, but because the Dolphins are playing well and Darnold could be limited, I’m taking the points.
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers doesn’t seem to fazed by playing on the road. In fact, there aren’t much difference in their play at home versus away. They traveled to Florida early this season and smoked the Dolphins. Their running game has improved throughout the season and the Jags haven’t been able to stop the run in weeks. The Jags are starting QB Gardner Minshew for the rest of the season, but I don’t see a ton of improvement. He can’t play defense and that’s where their issue lies. I’m taking the Chargers to cover on the road.
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3) – My pick is New England Patriots
It’s rare that the Patriots point spread is this small in a regular season game. They are playing a rough stretch of opponents and their offense haven’t been as explosive. That being said, the Chiefs are very vulnerable to the run. The Patriots have a backfield full of running backs that could do some damage. The Patriots could neutralize WR Tyreek Hill with CB Stephon Gilmore. That match-up will be one to watch and could be the reason either team wins. New England rarely loses back-to-back games and should cover at home.
Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders (+3) – My pick is Tennessee Titans
The Titans have been playing great and the Raiders are coming off back-to-back blowout losses. Tennessee’s offense always seems to be great the last 1/3 of the season and that’s when RB Derrick Henry does his most damage. The Raiders have been bad and haven’t done anything of late to make me feel confident in picking them. They can’t score touchdowns in the passing game and teams are starting to crowd the line of scrimmage to limit rookie RB Josh Jacobs. I’m taking the Titans to cover on the road.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers will most likely have their best passing game of the season. The Cardinals have allowed so many passing yards this season and they could make Steelers QB Devlin Hodges look like Big Ben out there. The Cardinals aren’t a scrub team against the spread as they’ve been keeping most games within the spread, but I don’t like the match-up between the Cardinals secondary and the Steelers pass catchers. I’m taking the Steelers to cover in Arizona.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (+1) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks
Seattle has been a solid betting team this year. QB Russell Wilson is an under-the-radar MVP candidate, but probably needs QB Lamar Jackson to implode to win the award. The Seahawks won an earlier contest against the Rams back in early October. It was a 30-29 win that saw Wilson throw four touchdown passes. This will be a tight game and the Seahawks are just on a roll right now and I can’t pick against them in basically a pick’em game.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5) – My pick is New York Giants
Both of these teams have been awful against the spread. They are both 4-8 and the Eagles have lost two of their last seven against the spread. Their offense just seems broken at times and QB Carson Wentz is nowhere close to the quarterback he was before his last injury. The Giants are a pretty bad team, but since both of these teams are bad against the spread, this is just too large of a spread for a bad gambling team to cover. I could easily see RB Saquon Barkley being able to run on the Eagles and control the clock. I’m taking the points.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 109-85-3
Follow us on Twitter @Sweetbob & ‘LIKE’ us on Facebook!
About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob