I went 10-4 against the spread last week.

I’ve historically done very well against the spread on Thanksgiving. I had a streak of three-straight perfect Thanksgivings until it was broken last year. I feel pretty good about my Turkey Day picks this year.

I wanted to get my NFL picks out a little earlier than normal since there are three Thursday games this week…and I need to get an early start on my college football picks too.

Can the Niners stop Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 13 of the 2019 NFL season.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (+3) – My pick is Chicago Bears

The Lions have an injury situation at quarterback. Backup QB Jeff Driskel is dealing with a hamstring issue and if he can’t go, rookie QB David Blough will start on Thursday. Either way, I think the Lions will have trouble passing the ball. The Bears got off to a 19-7 start against the Giants last week and held on or the win after the Giants had a late score. Trubisky threw for three touchdowns the last time he faced the Lions. He will need another strong game as the Bears are having trouble running the ball. I think Trubisky will do enough for the Bears to cover on Thanksgiving.

Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys (-7) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

The Bills have been a low-key good team this year. They are 8-3, but they still don’t get any respect, just look at this betting line. Their defense is the reason they’ve been winning games. The reason I’m picking the points in this game is because the Cowboys are dealing with some offensive line injuries. It’s unknown if La’el Collins or Zack Martin will play on Thursday. Dallas needs a healthy offensive line to deal with the young and fast Bills front-seven. I don’t expect a high scoring game as the Bills offense isn’t full of playmakers, but they do just enough to win. The Cowboys may squeak out a win, but I think it will be a close one.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (+7) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta was on a roll, but then really hit a wall against Tampa Bay last week. They couldn’t run the ball and the Bucs were the better team last week. They also have an injury issue with WR Julio Jones, who may need to sit out on Thursday. I think the Falcons can still hang with wide receivers Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage. As long as the Falcons can get adequate rushing yards, they should keep this close. The Saints offense was very one-dimensional the last time they faced the Falcons. The Saints will probably win, but they should keep this within a touchdown.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville has been pretty damn horrible the last three games. They were horrible against the Texans, were ran all over by the Colts and were once again a turnstile against the Titans. They should probably be a 3.5-point or greater favorites in this game, but due to their recent struggles, Vegas downgraded them. The Bucs have a legit passing game, but QB Jameis Winston turns the ball over WAY too much. He has thrown 20 interceptions this year and you can’t turn the ball over and be a consistent team in gambling. Also, when the Bucs can’t stop the run, they lose. I think Winston’s turnovers and the Jags running game will be the reason they cover at home.

Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers (-10) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

This is a tricky game to handicap. The Redskins won their first game in a long ass time last week, but it was against an injury-riddled Lions team. The win wasn’t pretty and you couldn’t glean much from the game. Washington QB Dwayne Haskins did enough to barely win and he appears far from ready to be an NFL starter. The Panthers are on a three-game losing streak and are now under .500. The Panthers are really relying on RB Christian McCaffrey to make big plays and WR D.J. Moore is impressing me more and more. Carolina is a good team when they don’t shoot themselves in the foot. The Panthers are 4-1 when QB Kyle Allen doesn’t throw an interception. This could be close to the line, but I’m taking Carolina to cover at home.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

The Browns are on a three-game winning streak and their offense is getting a little pep in its step. I’ve said a ton of great things about Browns RB Kareem Hunt and his abilities are game changers for Cleveland. I just think he keeps defenses guessing just enough to really throw a wrench in the opposing teams coverages. He’s such a great athlete to line up in the slot. The Steelers are starting QB Devlin Hodges in favor of the struggling QB Mason Rudolph. This game will be heated since they just had the Myles Garrett brawl just two weeks ago. There could be some personal fouls called early to set the tone. The NFL will try to keep it at a minimum, but it will be hard to limit. I think the Browns will cover in Pittsburgh. 

San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens (-6) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

This game has a possible Super Bowl feel to it. You have the 49ers who have the best defense in the NFL against the Ravens who have the most explosive offense in the NFL. Defense usually wins this battle, but it’s probably a 55/45 split these days. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is moving the ball in every way possible, but the Niners have made some good quarterbacks look quite average. If they can force Jackson to pass the ball, I think they have a shot to keep this one close. We all know he’s not the most accurate passer, but he’s just so damn elusive. The Niners offense has been putting up some good point totals too, so they aren’t solely dependent on defense. I think San Francisco will keep this one close, so I’m taking the points. This will be a fun game to watch. 

New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) – My pick is New York Jets

The Bengals are handing the ball back to QB Andy Dalton in hopes of getting their first win of the season. Rookie QB Ryan Finley made the offense worse and as weird as it sounds, Dalton gives them the best shot to win. I don’t think it will happen as the Jets are playing better than they have all season. They have won three games in a row and covered in all those wins. I don’t think this one will be close, so I’m taking the Jets to cover on the road.

Philadelphia Eagles at Miami Dolphins (+9) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

The Eagles haven’t looked right lately. I think it has to do with some recent injuries since they’ve been without RB Jordan Howard and WR Alshon Jeffery the last two games. QB Carson Wentz needs all his weapons if they hope to cover spreads, especially a near-double-digit spread. It doesn’t appear like either of those two players will suit up on Sunday, but of course that could change later in the week. The Dolphins have a couple wins under the belt and haven’t been as awful as they were at the start of the season. They are still not good, but they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games. I think Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will keep them within the spread at home, so I’m taking the points.

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (+6.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

The Packers are pretty bad on the West Coast. They were torched in Los Angeles by the Chargers and then scorched by the Niners in the Bay Area last week. Green Bay seems to snap out of it once they return from Pacific Standard Time. I can’t explain it other than they are a horrible West Coast travel team…also the Niners are really good. The Giants are dealing with a ton of injuries that could either hold out or limit WR Golden Tate, WR Sterling Shepard, TE Evan Engram and S Jabrill Peppers. That’s a lot of talent to be without, especially on the offensive side. The Giants haven’t been a good home team all season (1-4 ATS at home), and they will sorely miss any of those guys I listed above if they don’t suit up. I think I have to take the Packers to cover.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

Back in early September, the Colts beat the Titans 19-17. The Titans were still starting QB Marcus Mariota and the Colts had a full battery of running backs. Tennessee has since benched Mariota and are 4-1 since promoting QB Ryan Tannehill as their starting quarterback. They are more well-rounded and just the threat of consistency in the passing game is opening up running lanes for RB Derrick Henry. The Colts will be without RB Marlon Mack (hand) and TE Eric Ebron (ankles), both played a large role in their early season win. Indy hasn’t missed Mack much since they signed RB Jonathan Williams off the scrap heap and is doing really well. The Titans are playing great at the moment and it’s hard to pick against them. They are just playing a lot better than the Colts are right now, so I’m taking the points.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (+3) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Cardinals have been pretty darn bad against the pass this season. Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo just lit them up in their last game. Rams QB Jared Goff hasn’t played well all season and maybe this is what the doctor ordered. His confidence is shot and you can just seem him checking down to closer receivers and he isn’t looking deep for WR Robert Woods. The Rams passing offense is dangerous when they can open up the middle of the field, but the longest pass Woods has caught this season is just 38 yards. I think Goff will have his best game in months and cover in Arizona.

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (+2.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos

The Broncos may start rookie QB Drew Lock on Sunday against the Chargers. They would need to activate him from the ‘designated to return’ injured-reserve list. I liked him in college and thought he had one of the most NFL-ready arms in the draft. We saw a handful of rookies already have some success this season, so it’s not crazy to think he could come in and do well right away. The Broncos leaned heavily on their running game in their previous game against the Chargers that saw Denver win 20-13. I see the gameplan being the same as running backs Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman will be the focus of the offense again. The Chargers have had issues defending a strong running game and this game could be another close one. I’m taking the points in Denver.

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10) – My pick is Oakland Raiders

The Raiders are coming off a bad 34-3 loss on the road against the Jets. The entire offense was just shut down and I want to chalk it up as a bad game. They have not traveled well this year and this was just another example of them struggling on the road. I think the Chiefs will win this game, but Kansas City hasn’t been able to stretch out leads large enough to cover double-digit point spreads. They haven’t beaten a team by double-digits all season. The Chiefs offense is as potent as last year and I have to take the points.

New England Patriots at Houston Texans (+3) – My pick is New England Patriots

This could be a close game as the Patriots offense hasn’t put up the crazy point totals we are used to seeing from this at this point in the season. The Patriots have owned the Texans through the years as Houston hasn’t beaten the Patriots since 2010. New England has won the last eight meetings outright and are 6-2 against the spread in those games. The Texans have been getting ran on with a lot of success since their 41-7 loss in Baltimore. The Patriots are smart and could look to move the ball that way and that will pull the linebackers in and QB Tom Brady could get to work at that point. I’m taking the Patriots to cover in Houston.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-3) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

The Vikings have won six out of their last seven games, but injuries have started to take their toll. It appears that they will get WR Adam Thielen back, but they could be without S Harrison Smith, DT Linval Joseph and four other starters. The Seahawks are also playing great and have won seven of their last eight games. Seattle QB Russell Wilson has been amazing this year, but he isn’t getting MVP love since Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson is taking up all of the oxygen in that discussion. Seattle hasn’t been the automatic win at home like in previous years, but I think they are coming up against a wounded team at the right time. I’m taking the Seahawks to cover at home.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 100-78-3

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob