I went 16-9 against the spread with my college football picks last week.
This is the last week with a full slate of college football games. Next week is full of conference championship games and the yearly Army/Navy game.
Rivalry games can be tough to handicap. You can have all the data in the world, but sometimes a bad team can muster up enough big plays to defeat their hated rivals. Those are impossible to predict, but that’s the fun of rivalry week.
Can Ohio State chock up another win against the team up north?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 14 of the 2019-20 NCAA Football season (November 30th, 2019). We also pick some smaller conference games.
Virginia Tech at Virginia (+2.5) – My pick is Virginia Tech Hokies
Virginia Tech has owned Virginia over the last twenty years. The Cavaliers came close last year, but the Hokies won in overtimes. Va Tech is playing great right now and are coming off back-to-back shutout wins against Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh. Virginia has won three-straight themselves, but they’ve had to out-score their opponents this season as their defense has been suspect. I’m taking the Hokie defense in this one and think they will cover in Scott Stadium.
Texas Tech at Texas (-10) – My pick is Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Longhorns have lost three of their last four games and haven’t looked great since late-September. Texas QB Sam Ehlinger has been inconsistent since he threw four interceptions against TCU in October. He’s either been inaccurate or just unable to convert third downs. Texas Tech isn’t as bad as their 4-7 record would suggest. They’ve been a good betting team and are 6-4-1 against the spread. They’ve been keeping games close and their offense will always keep them in games. Texas may get the win on Friday, but the Red Raiders will keep this one close, so I’m taking the points.
Ohio State at Michigan (+9) – My pick is Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State was a cover machine early this season, but they have failed to cover in back-to-back games. They had their first true test of the season last week and only beat Penn State by 11. PSU lost their starting quarterback early in the game and their backup was running for his life and pressured by OSU DE Chase Young. Michigan had some hiccups early this season, but has covered their last five games. They are playing better than they were back when they lost to Penn State, but Ohio State just seems to have Michigan’s number every single year. Ohio State’s offense is crazy and Young just seems to be unblockable at this point. I’m taking the Buckeyes to cover in the Big House.
Alabama at Auburn (+3.5) – My pick is Alabama Crimson Tide
This Alabama team isn’t on the same level as last year’s team, but they are still stocked full of talent. They may not be the best team in the country, but they are dangerous. The reason I’m picking them to cover in Auburn is because QB Bo Nix’s inability to play well against the best teams. Nix has always performed well against teams he’s supposed to beat, but he is either inaccurate or just turns the ball over too much against top 25 teams. That is the reason I’m taking the Crimson Tide to cover.
Wisconsin at Minnesota (+3) – My pick is Minnesota Golden Gophers
This should be a fun game to watch. Wisconsin has been a one-man show of late with RB Jonathan Taylor getting a ton of work. The Badgers have had a lot of success doing that and I don’t see them straying away from Taylor much in this game. Minnesota will struggle to stop him, but I think their offense will show up at home. Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan should have a solid game. I don’t see the Badgers secondary being able to hang with the talented Minnesota receiveing corps. Minnesota has been a strong home team this year and Wisconsin will have trouble, so I’m taking the points.
Notre Dame at Stanford (+16.5) – My pick is Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Stanford isn’t the same team without QB K.J. Costello. They don’t have any consistency at quarterback and it affects their entire team. They have given up a lot of points to average teams and Notre Dame could really embarrass the Cardinal on Saturday. The Fighting Irish have been able to trounce bad teams and I think I would put Stanford in that category right now. I’m taking Notre Dame to cover at Stanford.
Texas A&M at LSU (-17) – My pick is Texas A&M Aggies
LSU is being bet up like crazy and they have only covered in two of their last six games. The Tigers will most likely win this game outright, but I love many SEC underdog teams down the stretch. Favorites in the SEC just get too much action for them to cover in most games. A&M and LSU played a close one last year and both teams scored 70+ points and it took an insane number of overtimes to declare a winner. A&M won 74-72 after QB Kellen Mond converted a two-point conversion. This game probably won’t be as close, but this point spread is a tad bloated, so give me the points.
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (+12) – My pick is Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Sooners haven’t proven to me that they can pull away from good teams. They’ve allowed too many teams to hang around and the Sooners end up failing to cover. Oklahoma has only covered once in their last seven games. The Cowboys are 8-3 on the season and have been a great betting team (8-2-1 ATS). I don’t have much faith in the Sooners cover this large of a point spread in a rivalry game. I’m taking the points.
Navy at Houston (+8.5) – My pick is Navy Midshipmen
We all know Navy is a one-trick pony, but that one trick is insanely good. They have been a solid betting team and have been able to maintain and extend leads. Houston has been okay against the run this season, but they have lost to teams like Tulane, Memphis and SMU because of lapses in their run defense. They will have a couple solid drives on defense, but then they will give up a huge gain on the ground. Navy will keep coming at you and it will only be a matter of time before Houston cracks and gives up a few huge plays on the ground. I’m taking Navy to cover on the road.
Miami (OH) at Ball State (-3) – My pick is Miami (OH) Redhawks
This is where we pick a game between smaller conference teams. Ball State has lost four in a row and have gotten quite unlucky at times. I don’t see their current streak being snapped as I see Miami really spamming the running game. Ball State has had trouble stopping the run lately and the Redhawks could do some damage in Muncie if they keep it on the ground. I’m taking the points.
QUICK HITS
Ole Miss at Mississippi State (-2.5) – My pick is Mississippi State
Iowa at Nebraska (+5.5) – My pick is Iowa
Washington State at Washington (-7.5) – My pick is Washington State
Appalachian State at Troy (+12.5) – My pick is Appalachian State
Georgia at Georgia Tech (+28) – My pick is Georgia
Indiana at Purdue (+6.5) – My pick is Indiana
Texas State at Coastal Carolina (-7) – My pick is Coastal Carolina
Clemson at South Carolina (+27) – My pick is Clemson
Northwestern at Illinois (-8) – My pick is Illinois
Wake Forest at Syracuse (+3.5) – My pick is Wake Forest
BONUS PICKS!
Kent State at Eastern Michigan (-4.5) – My pick is Eastern Michigan
Florida International at Marshall (-7.5) – My pick is Marshall
Baylor at Kansas (+14) – My pick is Baylor
Maryland at Michigan State (-22.5) – My pick is Michigan State
Southern Miss at Florida Atlantic (-7.5) – My pick is FAU
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 181-137-8
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.