After a rough Week 10, I rebounded with a strong 11-3 record against the spread last week.
There are some big games this weekend. The Cowboys/Patriots game will be a must-watch along with the Ravens/Rams game on Monday Night Football. It will be a big litmus test for Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. If he can perform like he has all season against a tough defense like the Rams, you might as well give him the MVP trophy after the game.
Can the 49ers hold off the Packers and ruin Green Bay QB Aaron Rodger’s homecoming?
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 12 of the 2019 NFL season.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-3.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts
The Colts and Texans faced each other a month ago and the Colts won 30-23. The game wasn’t as close as the score would suggest as Colts QB Jacoby Brissett had one of his best games as a pro. He threw for 326 yards and threw four touchdowns. He didn’t have much of a running game to aide him, which will be the case in this game. They will be without RB Marlon Mack and WR T.Y. Hilton is still dealing with a calf issue that could limit him or completely knock him out for this game. The Texans are coming off a 41-7 defeat against the Ravens. Brissett isn’t as dynamic of a quarterback as Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, but they do share some of the same skills. He can scramble well and I would even suggest that he has a better arm than Jackson. I believe the Texans will have issues with the Colts on a short week, so I’m taking the points.
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-4) – My pick is Denver Broncos
The Broncos are coming off a 27-23 loss in Minnesota. It was a much closer game than anyone really thought would take place. Denver limited their turnovers and was able to stop the run. The Broncos are a decent team if they can run the ball, and if though they weren’t tremendously successful on the ground against the Vikings, they were able to run when it counted. The Bills are coming off a blowout win against the Dolphins. Bills QB Josh Allen had one of his best games of his career. I don’t foresee him having that kind of game against Denver. Even though the Bills defense is much improved, they have had issue stopping the run in quite a few games this year. That will most likely be the biggest factor in this game. Denver will keep this game tight and will be a real challenge for Buffalo, so I’m taking the points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta started out the year 1- 6 against the spread. They have since covered three-straight games. Their defense has stepped up in the last two games and limited the Panthers to just a field goal and the Saints only scored nine the game before. The Buccaneers are currently on a six-game losing streak against the spread. They are really only able to stick with teams if they force a shootout, but their offense haven’t been able to keep up since their 55-40 win against the Rams in late-September. I like the Falcons right now and I’m picking them to cover at home.
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks
I know the historical assumption is that the Seahawks are a horrible road team. That hasn’t been the case the last two years. Seattle is actually undefeated on the road this season and are 4-1 against the spread in those games. The Eagles are a little too one-dimensional for my liking. They would need a huge game from QB Carson Wentz to hang with the Seahawks. The Seahawks are very good against the run and Wentz will need a big game, which I don’t see happening. I’m taking the points in this contest.
New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-6) – My pick is New York Giants
The Giants are better than their 2-8 record, but they’ve been pretty bad in the fourth quarter the last few games. They are coming off a loss to the Jets which saw RB Saquon Barkley only gain one yard on 13 attempts. Meanwhile, QB Daniel Jones threw for 308 yards and four touchdowns. If they got anything on the ground, they may have won that game. The Bears offense has been very bad this season. You can point the finger at QB Mitchell Trubisky, but it’s really the entire group. They miss a north-south runner and rookie RB David Montgomery isn’t built to be that guy. The Giants may not win this game outright, but I think they will keep it close since the Bears offense may not score 20 points, so I’m taking the points.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-9.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are fairly inconsistent, but if they limit interceptions, they are pretty darn good. Panther QB Kyle Allen has had only two bad games this year and those were in their 51-13 loss against the 49ers and last week’s 29-3 loss to the Falcons. He threw seven interceptions in those two games, but has only throw two others in all his other games combined. The Saints pass defense doesn’t force too many interceptions. They did force four interceptions against the Bucs, but Jameis Winston has thrown 18 this season, so I don’t really put too much weight in their performance last week. Panthers/Saints games are historically close and the underdogs are 9-1 in their last ten meetings. I think this will be another close one, so I’m taking the points.
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-10.5) – My pick is Cleveland Browns
It’s difficult to pick the Browns with a double-digit point spread this season, but I think the wide receiver/secondary talent disparity is just too great for the Browns in this game. I don’t see the Dolphins secondary being able to cover Odell Beckham Jr. or Jarvis Landry on Sunday. That isn’t even counting the linebackers or nickel cornerbacks that have to deal with RB/Slot Receiver Kareem Hunt. I’m taking the Browns to cover at home.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers had an emotional game against the Browns last week that saw QB Mason Rudolph get his helmet ripped off and swung at his head. They lost 21-7, but the Browns got off to such a hot start, the Steelers couldn’t ever get going on offense. The Bengals are winless on the season, but are 4-6 against the spread. Cincinnati’s offense has been pretty bad since promoting rookie QB Ryan Finley. It doesn’t help that the Bengals have been horrible at home. The Steelers should cover this spread on the road.
Oakland Raiders at New York Jets (+3) – My pick is New York Jets
I’m going out on a limb here, but I think the Jets will hang with the Raiders on Sunday. Oakland’s run defense is below average and Jets RB Le’Veon Bell has looked much better the last two weeks. Oakland is 1-3 on the road this season and they may have trouble running the ball against the Jets underrated run defense. I have to take the points in this game.
Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins (+3.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions
I am really in a pickle here. I have made it a career choice to bet against QB Jeff Driskel since he broke my heart on multiple occasions while he was at the University of Florida. I made a small fortune betting against him at Florida and a little more when he transferred to Louisiana Tech. I would normally see this as a no-brainer, but the Redskins are just so freaking horrible. I can’t believe they are making me think about laying a single penny on a Driskel-led football team. This decision is more about the Lions secondary versus Redskins QB Dwayne Haskins. In that scenario, the Lions secondary wins ten out of ten. I think that battle is just too lopsided and I’ll have to take the Lions to cover.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3) – My pick is Tennessee Titans
If Jacksonville plans to keep this game close, they will need a big game from QB Nick Foles. The Titans run defense is just too much for Jacksonville’s offensive line. Foles did not play great in his first game back since Week 1. It didn’t help that his team’s run defense imploded and turned the Jaguars in a pass-only offense since they were down by a few scores. Titans RB Derrick Henry should fare well against the Jaguars and should dominate the time of possession. I have to take the Titans to cover at home.
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (-6.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys
The Patriots offense haven’t been explosive against good teams this season. They can always cover against bad teams, but they just don’t have that extra gear on offense against teams like the Ravens. I would put the Cowboys in the same category as the Ravens. Dallas has had its own issues this year, but they have fixed a lot of them in their last four games (3-1 ATS). They are passing the ball better and they have a few too many receivers for the Patriots to really cancel out. This game should be close and a fun one to watch. I’m taking the points.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers
The Packers have been a fairly inconsistent betting team this season. They have had trouble covering back-to-back games all season. They played awful in Los Angeles (Chargers), but recovered to cover and outright win at home against Carolina. I wouldn’t say they were dominant, but it was still a cover. The Niners are 0-1-1 against the spread in their last two games. They had a last-second push against the Cardinals and lost in overtime to the Seahawks the prior week. I think those two outcomes helped lower this point spread by a couple points. There’s some extra value in the spread in favor of the Niners and I think their defense will stymie the Packers on Sunday night, so I’m taking the Niners to cover.
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Rams (+3) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens
The Rams are another inconsistent betting team. They have great games like their 37-10 win against the Falcons and then fail 17-12 in a loss to the Steelers. It would be different if the Rams were getting success from QB Jared Goff, but he has been pretty darn bad. The Rams haven’t allowed more than 20 points in a game since mid-October, but the Ravens can throw a lot of different looks at them. QB Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-like season this year. I think he should be able to cover this field goal point spread on the road, so give me the Ravens to cover.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 90-74-3
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob