I went 13-11-1 against the spread with my college football picks last week.
I really started out strong, but the late games last Saturday brought me back down to Earth.
There are some big games this weekend. The Penn State/Ohio State game could be viewed as a play-in game for the College Football Playoff. There are also some big games in the Big 12 that could weed out some of the teams for the Big 12 Championship game in a couple weeks.
Can Ohio State cover such a large point spread against Penn State?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 13 of the 2019-20 NCAA Football season (November 23rd, 2019). We also pick some smaller conference games.
UCF at Tulane (+6) – My pick is UCF Knights
UCF started the season strong, but have stumbled down the stretch. They’ve been turning the ball over too much and teams have been able to score points on those turnovers. They are coming off a 34-31 loss at Tulsa. They were favored by 15 in that game. UCF has only covered one game since Week 3. I think Vegas is correcting the slide and this game should probably be double-digits. I think UCF will cover at Tulane.
Minnesota at Northwestern (+13.5) – My pick is Minnesota Golden Gophers
Minnesota suffered their first loss of the season last week against Iowa. They could do much on the ground and it really turned them into a one-dimensional team. Iowa is well-coached and did enough to win outright against Minnesota. Northwestern secured only their second win of the season when they beat Massachusetts last week. They have been getting skewered by the Big Ten and this game will be no different. I don’t have any faith in the Wildcats defense in stopping the Gophers. I’m taking Minnesota to cover in Evanston.
Penn State at Ohio State (-18.5) – My pick is Penn State Nittany Lions
I know Ohio State is having a great year and they’ve put up a lot of points against good teams…but this point spread is insane. The line is pretty much holding, so maybe it isn’t crazy to some people since Vegas is getting bets on both sides. Maybe the reason I think it’s crazy is because I lived in Columbus for a handful of years and Ohio State fans always have this weird feeling when Penn State comes to town. The weather always seems to be bad and the games are usually close. I know they’ve given Penn State some thorough beatings a few times in the last six or seven years, but I still think Penn State is a better team than this line would suggest. I have to take the points in this one.
Boston College at Notre Dame (-19) – My pick is Boston College Eagles
Notre Dame had played great since their last-minute comeback win against Virginia Tech. They beat Duke and Navy by 30+ points. The reason I’m not picking them this week is because of Boston College RB AJ Dillon. Notre Dame struggles when they face very good running backs. They were ran all over by Michigan just a few weeks ago. Dillon is that good and will keep Boston College within the point spread. I’m taking the points.
Texas A&M at Georgia (-13.5) – My pick is Texas A&M Aggies
Underdog SEC teams have a very good record against the spread over the years. The later in the year, the higher the point spreads seem to be. The Aggies have been playing very well lately and freshman RB Isaiah Spiller is the reason. Georgia has a good run defense, but they could have trouble stopping him. Another thing that is being glossed over is the Aggies pass defense. They have been very good of late and it’s another factor in why I am taking the points in this game.
UCLA at USC (-14) – My pick is UCLA Bruins
UCLA is better than they were last year. They were on a roll this year until last week. They were smoked 49-3 by Utah and were dominated in nearly every facet of the game. I want to chalk this up as a trap game as they were clearly looking past Utah. I don’t think UCLA would have won that game, even in their best day. That blowout likely caused this point spread to balloon. The Bruins pass defense has been strong against nearly every Pac 12 team except Utah. They will pressure USC QB Kedon Slovis and keep this game within the points spread, so I’m taking the points.
Michigan at Indiana (+8.5) – My pick is Michigan Wolverines
Indiana has been a great betting team this season. They have either cover the spread by a healthy margin or kept games close as an underdog…except in their 51-10 loss at home to Ohio State. It was their inability to stop the run that really handicapped the Hoosiers. I have a feeling the same thing could happen at home to Michigan this weekend. I have to take Michigan to cover in Bloomington.
Texas at Baylor (-5.5) – My pick is Baylor Bears
Baylor suffered their first loss of the season last week. They fell to Oklahoma by a field goal in a game that saw OU QB Jalen Hurts have a career game. The Bears just ran up against a player that was just much better than they could deal with that day. I’m not going to write Baylor off and think they have packed it in for the season. They are a far better team than Texas and should get back on track at home against the Longhorns. I’m taking Baylor to cover at home.
TCU at Oklahoma (-18) – My pick is TCU Horned Frogs
As I said earlier, Oklahoma QB Jalen Hurts had one hell of a game to defeat Baylor. He had a little bit of a lull midseason, but he has really turned it back on the last couple weeks. That being said, TCU is a good team and should probably be less than 14-point underdogs. Their running game is legit and will cause the Sooners some problems. The Sooners will most likely win, but I think the Horned Frogs will make this game a little more interesting. I’m taking the points in this game.
Ball State at Kent State (+3.5) – My pick is Ball State Cardinals
This is where we pick a game between smaller conference teams. Both of these teams are relatively average MAC teams with flaws. Ball State will look to exploit Kent State’s biggest flaw in their inability to stop the run. The Cardinals have two very capable running backs and will look to unleash Caleb Huntley and Walter Fletcher. Their backfield should win that battle. I think Ball State should cover on the road.
QUICK HITS
Colorado State at Wyoming (-6.5) – My pick is Wyoming
Michigan State at Rutgers (+20.5) – My pick is Michigan State
Illinois at Iowa (-15.5) – My pick is Illinois
Air Force at New Mexico (+22.5) – My pick is Air Force
South Alabama at Georgia State (-10) – My pick is Georgia State
Georgia Southern at Arkansas State (+1) – My pick is Georgia Southern
Nebraska at Maryland (+4) – My pick is Nebraska
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech (-4) – My pick is Virginia Tech
Western Kentucky at Southern Miss (-4) – My pick is Southern Miss
Marshall at Charlotte (+7) – My pick is Marshall
BONUS PICKS!
Washington at Colorado (+14.5) – My pick is Colorado
Utah at Arizona (+22.5) – My pick is Utah
Houston at Tulsa (-3) – My pick is Tulsa
Duke at Wake Forest (-7) – My pick is Wake Forest
Kansas State at Texas Tech (-2.5) – My pick is Kansas State
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 165-128-8
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.