I finished 10-5 against the spread with my picks last week.

I lost the Thursday game last week, but killed it in the early games on Sunday. I felt I made some smart picks in a week that saw a lot of close calls near the points spread.

I wanted to wait until Wednesday night to make my picks to the NFL trade deadline ending earlier this week. There weren’t any big trades and the teams are all roughly the same. I think the biggest trade may have been when the Dolphins traded RB Kenyan Drake to the Cardinals for a low draft pick…so it was a bland deadline.

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 9 of the 2019 NFL season.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (+10) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

I’m still not completely sold on the Niners offense, but their defense is legit. They force turnovers and make offenses look silly. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray will pose a threat, but it looks like David Johnson and Chase Edmonds are both game-time decisions and they could end up starting newly-acquired running back Kenyan Drake. The Cardinals defense can be scored on and could make the Niners offense look great (like a week ago). I’m taking the Niners cover on the road on a short week.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) – My pick is Houston Texans

The Jaguars are a pretty good team with QB Gardnew Minshew under center and can beat bad-to-average teams with him as the starter. I wouldn’t put the Texans in those groups, but the small point spread is warranted. QB Deshaun Watson needs some help from either the running game or screen passes in order to have a few extra seconds to pass the deep ball. The Jaguars have the wild card as their running back is much better than anything the Texans have. If the Texans can stop RB Leonard Fournette, they should cover on the road…and I think they’ll do enough to get the win in Jacksonville. 

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

The Bears can only win in spite of QB Mitchell Trubisky. They need to force turnovers and get yards on the ground or obtain great starting field position. I don’t trust him right now and it would take a perfect Bears game all-around for them to do everything to put Trubisky in a position to keep this game close. I like how the Eagles bounced back from a blowout loss to the Cowboys. They pulled out a big 31-13 win at Buffalo, a good team. I’m taking the Eagles to cover at home.

Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

It’s not clear if QB Patrick Mahomes will be cleared to play in this game. Backup QB Matt Moore hasn’t done a bad job in his place, but he clearly doesn’t have the arm talent of Mahomes. The Chiefs haven’t done enough on the ground in his absence. The Vikings secondary is among the best in the NFL and if Moore starts, the Vikings pass defense has the edge. They are on a nice winning streak and QB Kirk Cousins is playing like the QB he was near the end of his tenure in Washington. If Mahomes isn’t cleared, this line probably jumps up a few points, so if you think the Vikings will win, I’d suggest locking in your bet early this week. I’m taking the Vikings to cover on the road.

Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers (-3.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

I like what I’ve seen from QB Ryan Tannehill. The Titans made a smart decision benching QB Marcus Mariota. It wasn’t that long ago that Tannehill led the Dolphins to a playoff berth. The Panthers are coming off a 51-13 drubbing at the hands of the 49ers. Panthers QB Kyle Allen was picked apart by the Niners. Carolina is set to start him again while QB Cam Newton rehabs his foot. I wouldn’t feel comfortable putting money on the Panthers right now. I’m taking the points.

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have a knack for keeping games within reach and finishing the job in the fourth quarter. They’ve done it all year and QB Jacoby Brissett has made some big plays late in games. The Steelers are coming off back-to-back wins against some bad teams (Chargers & Dolphins). Steelers got QB Mason Rudolph back from concussion-protocol last week and he had one of his best games of his young career by throwing for 251 yards and two passing touchdowns. He was helped by RB James Conner 145 yards, but is now questionable with a shoulder injury. The Steelers may have to use RB Trey Edmunds with Conner, Benny Snell and Jaylen Samuels all on the injury report. If the Steelers don’t have a running game, I don’t think Rudolph can win this game by himself, so I’m taking the Colts to cover in Pittsburgh.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (+3) – My pick is New York Jets

The Dolphins can really only keep games within a field goal if the other team lacks a single playmaker. The Jets have RB Le’Veon Bell and if QB Sam Darnold can have enough time to throw a deep ball, WR Robby Anderson can definitely hurt you. Darnold has been really bad the last two weeks because he faced two good defenses. He is much better than he has been and should get back on track this week with a cover in Miami. 

Washington Redskins at Buffalo Bills (-9.5) – My pick is Washington Redskins

The Bills are a good team, but their offense can be tough to watch. I know I’ve bashed QB Josh Allen about being inaccurate and not ready to be an NFL starter, but he hasn’t be the reason Buffalo has lost…until last week. He only completed 16 of 34 passes for 169 passing yards. Too many of Buffalo’s drives ended in a hurry due to bad passes. The Redskins secondary isn’t horrible and the Bills could find it hard to put up enough points to cover this spread. I’m not saying the Redskins will come out with the win, but I’m taking the points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-6) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I fully expect this game to be a shootout. The Seahawks have allowed some big games from opposing quarterbacks. Hell, Falcons QB Matt Schaub nearly threw for 500 yards against them last week…MATT F’N SCHAUB. The Seahawks may still end up with the win, but the Bucs are the kind of team that can win a shootout against them. I’m taking the points. 

Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders (-2) – My pick is Oakland Raiders

The Lions come into this game pretty banged up. They are without their best running back (Kerryon Johnson) and their best cornerback (Darius Slay) is dealing with a hamstring injury that could keep him out. The Raiders have some playmakers on offense that can get them a cover at home. I expect rookie RB Josh Jacobs to have a notable game against the Lions on Sunday, so I’m taking the Raiders to cover.

Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

I’m not sure why this point spread isn’t higher in the Packers favor. The Packers only have one loss on the year and are 6-2 against the spread on the year. The Chargers have lost three of their last four games and are only 2-4-2 against the spread this season. The Chargers offense appears broken, but their defense has allowed them to stay within a touchdown most games. The Packers are playing great and I wouldn’t be surprised if they cover this spread easily.

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (+3) – My pick is Denver Broncos

I am going out on a limb here since the Broncos are starting an unproven quarterback and the Browns. QB Brandon Allen will start in place of ‘injured’ Joe Flacco. The reason I put injured in quotes because the move appears to be made based on need. The Broncos may not have wanted it to look like they are benching him, so they are using a prior neck issue as the reason. Allen can’t be worse than Flacco was in Denver. He just wasn’t making plays and was just used to hand the ball off to Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. I expect Allen to get the ball to WR Courtland Sutton this week. The Browns have their own issues and they will have issues against Denver’s defense. Their defense is underrated and the reason why they haven’t been blown out in many games this year. I think Denver will be a better team with Allen under center, so I’m taking the points.

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) – My pick is New England Patriots

The Patriots are the best team in the NFL. It kills me to say that as a Colts fan, but they have been great and beating teams exactly the way we all expected them to beat. Head coach Bill Belichick will always gameplan to take out the opposing team’s biggest weapon. I believe they will stack the box and force Ravens QB Lamar Jackson to beat them with his arm. We all know he isn’t the most accurate quarterback and they will try to force him to throw. The Patriots will most likely be successful in doing that and will cover in Baltimore.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+7) – My pick is New York Giants

A reader emailed me this week and pointed out that I am 8-0 picking Giants games against the spread this year. I actually never noticed and want to thank Brandon to the email. I went back and looked and he was correct. I don’t even want to know what my record is in Bengals games (they’ve been a blind spot of mine this year). The Cowboys beat the Giants 35-17 in Week 1 of the season. The Giants had QB Eli Manning as their starter and didn’t have WR Golden Tate due to suspension. I believe they will fare better with QB Daniel Jones under center and with Tate now able to play. The Cowboys won’t be able to stack the box and force Eli into throwing mistakes. I actually have more faith in Jones right now and think he will keep up with the Cowboys offense. He will ride RB Saquon Barkley and isn’t afraid to then make big plays with his arm (and he can scramble pretty well). This game will be closer than people think, I’m taking the points. 

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 71-55-0

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob