I went 3-5 against the spread and with my over/under picks last week. I whiffed against the spread, but made up for it with my over/under picks.
This might be the most evenly-matched Conference Championship slate of games in NFL history. Both games are -3 for the home team, which means that on a neutral field, both games should probably be pick’em. Also, both games are rematches of barn-burning thrillers from this season.
Can the Saints get QB Drew Brees to his second Super Bowl of his career?
Can the Patriots force Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes into making mistakes?
We pick both NFL Conference Championship games against the spread and over/under point totals.
Since there are only four games this weekend, as a bonus I will also pick the over/under for each game.
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-3) – over/under (56.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints and OVER
The Saints and Rams faced each other in early November. The Saints won 45-35 with Saints QB Drew Brees throwing four touchdowns with no interceptions. Saints WR Michael Thomas had 211 receiving yards in that game. The Rams haven’t truly fixed their coverage issues, especially when covering the opposing team’s #1 receiver. Thomas could be in line for another big game. The Rams played great last week and ran all over the Cowboys, but can they do the same against the Saints? As much as I hate predicting similar outcomes from a previous game, I have to go with the Saints to cover in this one. I don’t think much has changed since early November. The Rams actually played some of their worst football after their meeting. I’m also going to go with the OVER in this contest.
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-3) – over/under (55.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs and OVER
This is another rematch from a game early this season. The Patriots beat Kansas City 43-40 back in mid-October. It was Kansas City’s first loss of the season and the Patriots needed every second of the game as kicker Stephen Gostkowski hit a field goal with time expired to clench the victory. The Chiefs relied heavily on RB Kareem Hunt as he rushed for 80 yards and had over 100 yards receiving. He’s no longer on the team, but they’ve replaced him with two like-minded running backs. Early reports predicted arctic blast weather conditions, but it looks like that may not happen now. Kansas City is the better team, but we can never count out the Patriots. They’ve gameplanned their way to victories in the past. I’m sure they want to take QB Patrick Mahomes and WR Tyreek Hill out of the game, but I don’t see that happening. I’m taking the Chiefs to cover and for the OVER in points.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob