I went 10-6 against the spread last week.

Week 17 hasn’t been very eventful the last couple of years. There wasn’t even worth a flex last year and there wasn’t a game on Sunday Night Football.

The Colts/Titans game was flexed to Sunday night this year. The winner of that game will earn a playoff spot. If the Texans lose to the Jaguars, the Colts or Titans could win the AFC South with a win.

There are currently only two teams that are locked into their spots in the playoffs (Saints & Cowboys). Every other spot is up for grabs, so this week will be worth your time.

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 17 of the 2018 NFL season.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-4.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins need a win to finish the season 8-8 and possibly save head coach Adam Gase’s job. Miami beat Buffalo by four points a few weeks ago, but the Bills have been playing a little better since that game. The Dolphins would be rolling the dice by playing WR DaVante Parker, who could receive $9 million if he is seriously injured on Sunday. I’m still going to roll the dice and take the Dolphins. This could be an audition for QB Ryan Tannehill, as Miami will most likely draft a quarterback this year. I’m taking the points.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

This could be an ugly game. The Lions are limping into the offseason with a lot of question marks that need solved. I’m sure the Lions players would love to get the win, but I doubt they will be in a position to do that. I expect a conservative gameplan from both teams. A lot of rushing attempts with little damage to their high-priced quarterbacks. The Packers have the more talented backfield and should cover on Sunday.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-6.5) – My pick is Houston Texans

The Texans clinched a playoff berth last week, but still need a win to win the AFC South. If they lose, the winner of the Colts/Titans game will win the division. The Jaguars defense has quit on the coaching staff and their offense is broken. A motivated Texans team should cover at home against the apathetic Jaguars.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-13.5) – My pick is New England Patriots

The last time they faced each other, the Patriots won 27-13 at MetLife Stadium. The Jets were without rookie QB Sam Darnold and played the consistent veteran QB Josh McCown. He was able to avoid too many errors. I don’t have much faith in Darnold to do the same. I know he has a 6 to 1 TD/INT ratio since returning from injury, but facing the Patriots in a must-win game for New England, is just too much for a rookie QB who struggles with turnovers. I’m taking the Patriots to cover.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-7.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints

The Saints don’t have anything left to play for as they are the #1 seed in the NFC. That doesn’t automatically disqualify them from covering this game. The Saints have a talented offense and they have a pair of backup QBs with a lot of talent. QB Drew Brees will most likely start and play for a drive or two, but I expect him to be pulled early. The Panthers will most likely throw a lot to RB Christian McCaffrey so he can pad his gaudy stats. The Panthers will fire their head coach at the end of the season and could look to move QB Cam Newton. I’m taking the Saints to cover.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-6) – My pick is New York Giants

I expect the Cowboys will sit their stars for most of the game. They are locked into the #4 seed in the NFC. Also, the Giants have had a nice run by playing the spoiler in the second-half of the season. New York is 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven games. I’m taking the Giants to cover on Sunday.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (pk) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs haven’t fared well on the scoreboard in recent weeks, but are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six games. Tampa Bay will most likely go in a different direction at quarterback this offseason. This will be an audition game for QB Jameis Winston. He could land himself another starting job on another NFL team in Florida. The Falcons are not a very good road team and will likely look to survive without injuries on Sunday. I’m taking the Bucs in a pick’em game.

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-13.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs haven’t covered a game since losing RB Kareem Hunt (violence against woman). They faced a pretty brutal stretch of opponents (Rams, Ravens, Chargers & Seahawks). They did face the Raiders in the middle of that murderer’s row of teams. They were favored by 14 points, but only won by a touchdown. The Raiders were a decent home team in the second-half of the season. I don’t expect the same Raiders team that beat Denver last week to arrive at Arrowhead this week. That was an emotional game as it could be their last game in Oakland. The Chiefs need to win to secure home-field and a first-week bye.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears

Both teams are battling for playoff positioning. The Bears can finish as high as the #2 seed and can’t go lower than the #3 seed. The Vikings could be the #5 seed or completely miss the playoffs. That means that both teams should be full strength in this game. The Bears won a competitive game in November by beating the Vikings 25-20 in Chicago. The Bears haven’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard on offense, but their defense is winning them games. The Vikings have a stout defense as well, so this could be a battle. This could be another tight game, so I have to go with the points.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

The Steelers are currently on the outside looking in and needs a lot of help to make the playoffs. They need to win and for the Ravens to lose to win the AFC North…or they need the Colts & Titans to play to a tie on Sunday night…so there’s a minute chance of a Wild Card berth. The Steelers were in the driver’s seat to win the AFC North until they went 1-4 outright in their last five games. The Bengals needed a garbage time touchdown (and 2-point conversion) to avoid losing against the spread in Cleveland. The Bengals will do just good enough to avoid losing against the spread (3-0 ATS in last three games). I’m taking the points in this contest.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+6.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have an outside-shot at making the postseason if they beat the Redskins and the Vikings lose. Minnesota faces Chicago, so it’s a possibility that the Eagles could earn the #6 seed in the NFC by the end of Sunday. The Redskins defense are fighting among each other and could be easy pickings for the Eagles offense. Philly is 4-1 outright in their last five games (3-2 ATS). I have faith in the Eagles will cover against the woeful and beaten up Redskins team. 

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore needs to win (or the Steelers to lose) to win the AFC North. They will be full-strength on Sunday and will not be resting their starters. The Ravens defense will eat the Browns offense alive and the battle will be between the Ravens offense and the above-average Browns defense. I’m taking the Ravens to cover.

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (+6.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers could end up with home-field advantage or end up with the #5 seed. In order for the Chargers to win home-field, they would need to win and for the Chiefs to lose to the Raiders (not great odds). Denver are coming off a loss to the Raiders and will be without rookie RB Phillip Lindsay (wrist). The Chargers are a stacked team and their defense is scary since DE Joey Bosa returned from injury. I’m taking the Chargers to cover in Denver.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks will be either the #5 or #6 seed in the NFC. They will be the #5 seed if they beat Arizona or if Minnesota loses to Chicago. They will end up with the #6 seed if they lose and the Vikings win. Seattle might be the scariest team in the NFC right now. They are 5-1 outright in their last six games (4-1-1 ATS). QB Russell Wilson and the offensive line have both improved throughout the season. The Cardinals are getting annihilated and will most likely see their head coach fired just one season. They have been blown out in too many games…including this one on Sunday.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-10) – My pick is Los Angles Rams

The Rams need a win to secure the #2 seed and a first-round bye. They would be bumped to the #3 seed if they lose and the Bears win. Both the Rams and Niners have been utter shit against the spread this season. The Niners have also failed to outright win a single road game this season. I expect the Rams to finish the season strong and will cover at home.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+3.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

The winner of this game will either win the AFC South (if the Texans lose) or will earn the #6 seed in the AFC. The Colts smoked the Titans earlier this season 38-10 in Indy. It wasn’t until two weeks later when the Titans really went all-in with RB Derrick Henry. He has put up career numbers during the month of December. Both teams are hot as the Colts have outright won eight of their last nine games (5-3-1 ATS). The Titans come into this game on a four-game winning streak (2-2 ATS). The Colts haven’t let talented running backs hurt them this season. In order for the Titans to win against the spread QB Marcus Mariota will need a huge game (and an injury could prevent him from playing). I’m taking the Colts to cover.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 124-104-12

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob