I went 9-7 against the spread last week.
Week 16 usually has a ton of stinkers on the schedule, but there are some interesting games being played this weekend…and thankfully there isn’t a Thursday game on the schedule.
This week isn’t completely void of potential blowouts as there are a handful of double-digit point spreads…which are pretty darn difficult to cover in the National Football League.
The Ravens, Titans and Colts are battling for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC. Will any of these teams choke this weekend?
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 16 of the 2018 NFL season.
Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans (-10) – My pick is Tennessee Titans
The Redskins have been prone to give up yards on the ground, especially the last month or so. Titans RB Derrick Henry is playing like Earl Campbell right now. He’s finally using his size to his advantage and breaking more tackles than he has his entire career. Also, the Titans defense is playing great again, after slumping a bit midseason. I hate, hate double-digit point spreads in the NFL, but the Titans are good enough to cover.
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens
The Chargers had one hell of a fourth quarter in their 29-28 win at Kansas City. The Chargers were ballsy as hell and went for a two-point conversion with mere seconds left in the game. The Ravens are also playing pretty darn good with rookie QB Lamar Jackson under center. He only has one loss as a starter, which was in overtime at Kansas City. This should be a fun game to watch. I’m interested in seeing if QB Philip Rivers can do any damage against a very good Baltimore pass defense. The Chargers may win outright, but I’m taking the points.
Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) – My pick is Houston Texans
The Eagles are playing great at the right time. They have won three out of their last four games, and had their biggest win of the season last week against the Rams. Eagles QB Nick Foles is avoiding mistakes and is relying on the running game in the red zone. The Texans have won nine of their last ten games, but haven’t played at a high level the last two weeks. They lost to the Colts by three points and then pushed against the Jets only winning by seven. This game should be close as I like the Texans defense versus the Eagles offense. I’m taking the points in this game.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-4) – My pick is Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are a good home team, but are disastrous on the road. They are playing better with QB Ryan Tannehill back and I like RB Kalen Ballage in the offense. The Jaguars offense is flat and have only scored a total of 28 points in their last three games. Their defense is the only reason they haven’t been embarrassed. This could be another ugly game, but I’m taking the Dolphins.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-10) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals
I know the Bengals are really banged up, but I can’t remember the last time the Browns were ten-point favorites against ANYONE. I know there is a small minute chance the Browns could still make the postseason, but this point spread is a bit excessive. Cleveland beat Cincinnati by 15 points just a few weeks ago, so I guess it’s not a huge stretch that they could cover this, but I’m betting that they blow it. I’m taking the points.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-13) – My pick is New England Patriots
The Patriots are on a rare two-game losing streak. They haven’t been a good road team this season, but are very good at home. The Bills are sad sacks and really want this season over. The Patriots still have a lot left to play for this season and need to get back on track…and they will do it against the Bills.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (+3.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are playing for their head coach’s job. They are on a six-game losing streak, but the last five of those losses have been within one score. It’s not like they are getting destroyed every week, but they have their issues on offense. They were the only reason they were competitive against the Saints last week. Last week, the Falcons won their first game since early-November. They are really only competitive when they are at home. They are horrible on the road and I could see the Panthers defense making it hard for them to put up points. Both of these teams are inconsistent, so I’m taking the points.
New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts (-10) – My pick is New York Giants
The Colts defense have been on a very good run of late. They are getting to the quarterback and stopping teams on third downs. When you pair that with Colts QB Andrew Luck limiting turnovers, Indy is in the Wild Card race in the AFC. The Giants have been playing better lately as they have been relying on rookie RB Saquon Barkley more, and QB Eli Manning less. It has been working out as Manning isn’t committing the amount of turnovers he was early this year. The Colts should win, but the line is a tad too high, so I’m taking the points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Cowboys are coming off a shutout loss to the Colts. The offense never got started last week. They face a worse defense this week, but the Bucs haven’t been horrible on that side of the ball the last month. The Cowboys will most likely get the outright win, but they are not deserving of a 7.5-point spread. I’m taking the points.
Green Bay Packers at New York Jets (+3) – My pick is Green Bay Packers
The Packers haven’t won a single road game this season. This is their eighth and final attempt, and it’s a very winnable game. The Jets turn the ball over a lot and that’s something the Packers just doesn’t do very much. I think the game will come down to that and I’m taking the Packers to cover at MetLife Stadium.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+5.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings
The Lions are coming off a loss to Buffalo and didn’t look very good in their previous game against Minnesota. I hate Detroit right now and have no faith in them against this point spread. I’m taking Minnesota to cover in Detroit.
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (+14) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have been horrible against the spread this season. They are on a two-game losing streak and have only covered one game since mid-October. The Cardinals were blanked by the Rams in Week 1 and Los Angeles really needs a performance like that to get warmed up for the postseason. Rams QB Jared Goff has been really bad the last two weeks, but should fare much better this week. I’m taking the Rams to cover in Arizona.
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (+4) – My pick is Chicago Bears
I fear for Niners QB Nick Mullens life. The Bears defense has been insanely good and Mullens will be on his back most of the game. The Niners are already prone to sacks and their offensive line will struggle on Sunday. I’m taking the Bears to cover in the Bay Area.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints (-5.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints
New Orleans have looked mere human during their recent three-game road trip. They were 2-1 outright and 1-2 against the spread. Their offense was stagnant and their defense was the key to their victories. The Steelers were on a roll until they fell to Denver around Thanksgiving. They are 1-3 since, with a really bad loss at Oakland in the middle of that stretch. This will be an interesting game, but I love the Saints at home. Their offense clicks and will be hard to stop.
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs
There are some fun games to watch this week. Both the Chiefs and Seahawks are playing great and this will be a tough test for Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. Seattle may not have the shutdown cornerbacks anymore, but they have a pretty solid pass rush. Mahomes is elusive and very good while scrambling. This will be the key to the Chiefs covering in Seattle.
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+2.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos
The Broncos are an average team and has been able to beat the bad teams on their schedule. Denver beat Oakland in Week 1, but it was just by a single point. Oakland is a very different team now and are clearly playing for draft position right now. Oakland QB Derek Carr will be hurried all game by Denver’s pass rush. I’m taking Denver to cover.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 114-98-12
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob