I finished 14-11 against the spread last week.
There are huge rivalry games on the schedule this week.
Rivalry games can sometimes be difficult to handicap. The teams come in extra motivated and sometimes players have their own personal motivation (i.e. not getting a scholarship offer, growing up with a hatred of rival). There are just factors you can’t throw into a calculator and use in your decision-making process.
Also, this is ‘sort of’ the last week of the regular season. There are other games after this week, but this is the traditional end of the regular season for most college football teams…and weird stuff tends to happen this week.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 13 of the 2018-19 NCAA Football season (November, 24th, 2018). We also pick some smaller conference games.
Arkansas at Missouri (-23) – My pick is Missouri Tigers
Arkansas hasn’t had a good year. They are 2-9 and their only win over a FBS team was against Tulsa (they beat Eastern Illinois in Week 1). They have been getting smoked by SEC teams, but do have a 4-3 record against the spread. Missouri’s offense is loaded and QB Drew Lock will be playing on Sundays soon. They are coming off a lopsided win at Tennessee and should do the same at home versus the Razorbacks.
Oklahoma at West Virginia (+3) – My pick is West Virginia Mountaineers
This game should be fun. Oklahoma have managed to only lose one game, but their defense have made a few games a little too close for comfort. OU QB Kyler Murray is a terrific athlete and is one of the best dual threat quarterbacks in the country. He is doing a hell of a job keeping up with the amount of points his defense gives up. Their defense will have their hands full with WVU QB Will Grier. The Mountaineers have had their own defensive woes, but have been much more consistent than the Sooners. This game could be brutally close and I have to give a slight edge to West Virginia’s defense, so I’m taking the points.
Washington at Washington State (-3) – My pick is Washington State Cougars
The Huskies have been atrocious to bettors this season…or if you bet against them, very profitable! They haven’t covered a game since September 29th (win against BYU). They have been over-hyped all season and even though they are 8-3 outright, they’ve been playing down to their competition. Washington State is 10-1 outright AND against the spread this season. They are consistently underrated and overlooked in the Pac-12. I’m a huge believer in their passing offense and the Huskies will have issues stopping it. I’m taking the Cougars to cover their eleventh game of the season.
UCF at South Florida (+14) – My pick is UCF Knights
This line confuses me a little. The Knights have been destroyed competition and should probably be favored by more than just two touchdowns, at least that’s what I believe the final score will look like. This game is pretty easy to handicap. South Florida allowed Tulane and Houston to score more than 40 points in a game, so UCF will easily hit that mark and more…so I’m taking UCF to cover at Raymond James Stadium.
Utah State at Boise State (-2.5) – My pick is Utah State Aggies
I’ve been hitting Utah State hard all season. They failed to cover the spread last week, but in hindsight, Colorado State was a trap game. The Aggies still won the game, but it was way closer than it should have been. Boise State has been a decent team against the spread, but they usually come into the season highly-rated, so it’s hard to really be too consistent against the spread when you’re a ‘public’ small school team. The Aggies have been fantastic this year and will give the Broncos fits all game. Utah State could be a good moneyline play as well. This game should be very close, and a high-scoring affair.
Notre Dame at USC (+11) – My pick is Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame started the year with two close wins against two below average teams. They have since been blowing out opponents and covering spreads. They are talented on both sides of the ball and can keep and extend leads. The USC Trojans are a young team that have dealt with a lot of growing pains. They were smoked by Notre Dame last year and their roster isn’t even as talented as that squad. USC could be in trouble and see another double-digit loss at the hands of the Irish.
Colorado at California (-12.5) – My pick is California Golden Bears
Colorado have been a great team to bet against this season. They got off to a hot start, which caused a lot of their games in October and November to be favorable when betting against them. They have only scored a combined 14 points their last two games and the defenses they faced (Utah & Washington State) aren’t in the same league as California’s much improved defense. The only thing I worry about in this game is the Golden Bears offense. They’ve been stopping teams from scoring many points, by they themselves aren’t scoring more than fifteen points. I have faith in Cal’s defense to stop Colorado enough that the Golden Bears may not need to score a ton to cover.
Kentucky at Louisville (+17) – My pick is Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky isn’t known for covering double-digit point spread. I probably wouldn’t take them if they were facing roughly any of the top 70-ish teams. Louisville is so bad and they lost head coach Bobby Petrino. He was fired after the Cardinals were hosed in multiple games in a row. Louisville wasn’t able to replace QB Lamar Jackson and Petrino paid the price. They clearly have other issues, especially on defense, but without a good offense, all of their games have been lopsided. Kentucky had a good defense and will not need to score a ton to cover this spread.
Auburn at Alabama (-24) – My pick is Alabama Crimson Tide
This game took me awhile to come to a decision. Auburn is having a down year, but have been playing better as of late. Alabama is also playing their best right now as well. Their defense haven’t allowed a single point in their last two SEC conference games. This could get close to the line, but the Crimson Tide will be extra motivated to avenge their loss to Auburn last year. I’m taking the Tide to cover at home.
Old Dominion at Rice (+7.5) – My pick is Old Dominion Monarchs
This is where we pick a smaller conference game. Old Dominion made a name for themselves when they defeated Virginia Tech early this season. They didn’t take advantage of that huge win, as they lost their next three games. Rice is, um, Rice. They are rarely competitive and they’ve been at ‘their level’ this season. ODU has been playing better lately and think they should cover against the lowly Rice Owls.
QUICK HITS
Baylor at Texas Tech (-6) – My pick is Texas Tech
Georgia Tech at Georgia (-17) – My pick is Georgia
Florida at Florida State (+6.5) – My pick is Florida
Purdue at Indiana (+4) – My pick is Purdue
Virginia at Virginia Tech (+4.5) – My pick is Virginia Tech
Nebraska at Iowa (-9) – My pick is Iowa
Eastern Michigan at Kent State (+13.5) – My pick is Eastern Michigan
Oregon at Oregon State (+17.5) – My pick is Oregon
Michigan at Ohio State (+4.5) – My pick is Michigan
Syracuse at Boston College (-7) – My pick is Syracuse
BONUS PICKS!
Georgia Southern at Georgia State (+11) – My pick is Georgia State
New Mexico State at Liberty (-8) – My pick is New Mexico State
Troy at Appalachian State (-10.5) – My pick is Troy
Wyoming at New Mexico (+7) – My pick is Wyoming
Illinois at Northwestern (-17) – My pick is Northwestern
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 153-139-5