I finished 12-12-1 against the spread (again) last week. I’m over .500 on the year, but I’ve had a ton of even stevens weeks this year.
There are some big rivalry games on the schedule this week. Rivalry games can sometimes be difficult to handicap. The teams come in extra motivated and sometimes players have their own personal motivation (i.e. not getting a scholarship offer, growing up with a hatred of rival). There are just factors you can’t throw into a calculator and use in your decision-making process.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 12 of the 2018-19 NCAA Football season (November, 17th, 2018). We also pick some smaller conference games.
Middle Tennessee at Kentucky (-16) – My pick is Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Kentucky is falling back down to Earth after reaching the top ten in the College Football Playoff rankings two weeks ago. They have lost back-to-back games to Georgia and Tennessee. They are also 1-4 against the spread in their last five games. Their defense is still performing well, but their offense isn’t doing the job. Middle Tennessee has a talented offense and QB Brent Stockstill is a ‘real guy’ to worry about. He’s talented and doesn’t turn the ball over. The Wildcats will most likely get the victory, but I don’t see them covering the spread.
Ohio State at Maryland (+14.5) – My pick is Ohio State Buckeyes
Last week, the Buckeyes covered their first spread since Week 4. They beat Michigan State 26-6 in East Lansing. They righted the ship and fixed some of the issues that cost them a loss against Purdue a few weeks ago. They are still a flawed team, but Maryland is probably the third-worst team in the Big Ten. The Terrapins have had a disastrous season off-the-field and I’m sure the current coaching staff have already put their applications to coach elsewhere next year. I don’t expect a competitive game and Ohio State should cover on the road.
Utah at Colorado (+7) – My pick is Utah Utes
Colorado was once an undefeated team heading into Week 7, but they’ve lost every game since. They basically just played some chump teams and once the competition level jumped up, they’ve been getting schooled. Utah is one of the better teams in the Pac-12 and are a consistent betting team. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games. I don’t see the Buffaloes being much competition for the Utes on Saturday.
Cincinnati at UCF (-7) – My pick is Cincinnati Bearcats
This is a difficult game for UCF. Cincinnati is the toughest opponent they have faced this year. The Bearcats defense is one of the best in the conference and not for an overtime loss at Temple, they’d be ranked right up there with UCF. The last time Central Florida was tested, they came out with a one-point win at Memphis. This could be another nail-biter and Cincinnati has a shot of winning this game outright, so I’m taking the points.
Arizona at Washington State (-9.5) – My pick is Washington State Cougars
Arizona has turned their season around with back-to-back wins, but they are still in the middle of the pack in the Pac-12. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, Washington State is among the best in the conference. Arizona’s defense just doesn’t have an answer for WSU QB Gardner Minshew. The Cougars should cover this spread with ease.
Stanford at California (+2) – My pick is Stanford Cardinal
California has had a huge turnaround on defense. That side of the ball is what has kept them in the last four games (4-0 ATS). Their offense isn’t very good, but they have wins over USC and Washington, and a six-point loss at Washington State on their resumé. Stanford’s offense just recently turned back on, but this could be another close game for the Golden Bears. The Cardinal are much better on paper, but I’m going to give Cal’s defense some props here. This could be close to the betting line, but I’m taking Stanford to cover in a rivalry game.
Duke at Clemson (-28) – My pick is Clemson Tigers
Clemson is the best team in the ACC and are just marking time until they can play in the College Football Playoff. That being said, they are not going to take their foot off the gas pedal. They battled Boston College last week and pulled out a late cover. Clemson just has too many weapons on both sides of the ball. They should cover at home versus Duke.
USC at UCLA (+3.5) – My pick is USC Trojans
I’m going Pac-12 heavy with my picks this week. There are just some favorable betting lines this week. USC and UCLA are both having underwhelming seasons. They are rebuilding and both teams replaced a lot of key players with freshmen and sophomores. They should be much better next season. UCLA hasn’t had much success this year and it took them October to get their first win. USC has been a little better, but they have really only been able to beat the basement-level Pac-12 teams. UCLA is the level of teams USC has been able to beat and should cover in this rivalry game.
Wisconsin at Purdue (-4.5) – My pick is Wisconsin Badgers
Going into the season, I never thought Purdue would be a favorite in this game. The Badgers were preseason Big Ten title hopefuls and many thought Purdue would be lucky to make a bowl game. Both teams are coming off losses with Wisconsin losing at Penn State and Purdue losing at Minnesota (ouch). The Boilermakers had a lot of momentum after defeating Ohio State, but they are 1-2 since, with both losses coming on the road. Purdue has been a very good home team the last two months. On the flipside, Wisconsin has been a horrible road team. They are 1-3 on the road, but their road opponents have been pretty darn good. Purdue may squeak out a win here, but this line is a bit too high, so I’m taking the points.
Louisiana Tech at Southern Miss (+1.5) – My pick is Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
This is where we pick a smaller conference game. La Tech was a good betting team early this season, but Vegas figured them out. They are just 2-4 against the spread in their last six games. They are 4-2 outright in those games. They have beaten just about every team on their level they’ve faced, with two of their three losses coming against SEC teams (LSU & Mississippi State). The Bulldogs have faced a difficult schedule, unlike Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles did schedule Auburn and Florida State this season, but both programs aren’t as good as previous seasons. I’m going to take La Tech in this game and think they should cover easily on the road.
QUICK HITS
Oregon State at Washington (-33.5) – My pick is Oregon State
Boston College at Florida State (+1.5) – My pick is Boston College
West Virginia at Oklahoma State (+4.5) – My pick is Oklahoma State
Iowa at Illinois (+14.5) – My pick is Iowa
Syracuse at Notre Dame (-10.5) – My pick is Notre Dame
Utah at Colorado State (+28) – My pick is Utah State
South Florida at Temple (-13.5) – My pick is South Florida
Pittsburgh at Wake Forest (+6.5) – My pick is Pitt
Arkansas at Mississippi State (-21.5) – My pick is Arkansas
San Diego State at Fresno State (-13) – My pick is Fresno State
BONUS PICKS!
Mississippi at Vanderbilt (-3) – My pick is Ole Miss
Rice at LSU (-42.5) – My pick is Rice
UAB at Texas A&M (-17) – My pick is Texas A&M
South Alabama at UL-Lafayette (-17) – My pick is UL-Lafayette
Nevada at San Jose State (+14.5) – My pick is Nevada
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 139-128-5