I finished 16-9 against the spread last week.
After a few weeks of near .500 against the spread in college football, I finally had a week to hang my hat on.
I was getting frustrated and there was a couple weeks where I was a bit sluggish on writing my betting picks. They came out a day or two later than I normally write them (late-Wednesdays). I just had to re-evaluate some teams and tweak my own personal rankings.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 9 of the 2018-19 NCAA Football season (October, 27th, 2018). We also pick some smaller conference games.
Utah at UCLA (+10) – My pick is Utah Utes
After starting off a string of Pac-12 opponents with back-to-back losses, Utah is now on a three-game winning streak (and they covered all three games). They have been a force on the ground with RB Zack Moss leading the way. UCLA started off the season with five-straight losses, but have won back-to-back games. They beat Cal 37-7 on the road and squeaked by Arizona 31-30. UCLA head coach Chip Kelly has the offense working better, but they are far from Utah’s level. The Utes should smoke the Bruins.
Purdue at Michigan State (-1.5) – My pick is Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue had one of the biggest wins in college football by dominating Ohio State in Columbus. There wasn’t a moment of that game that looked like Ohio State could win that contest. I would normally go hard on a ‘let down’ game, but Michigan State is a very beatable team. QB David Blough and RB D.J. Knox are making a case for being the most impressive QB/RB duo in the Big Ten. They have been fantastic since taking over the starting roles due to injuries. Michigan State was beaten 21-7 by in-state rival Michigan. It was an emotionally-draining game with a pre-game scrum. The Spartans aren’t that special this season and the Boilermakers should challenge them, so I’m taking the points.
Iowa at Penn State (-6.5) – My pick is Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa is flying under the radar this season. They are 6-1 outright (and 6-1 ATS) with a prolific offense that Iowa hasn’t had in years. QB Nathan Stanley has been outstanding, especially during their current winning streak. He had a below average output last week in their 23-0 win versus Maryland, but he spent most of that game just handing the ball off to run down the clock (Iowa had 52 rush attempts versus Maryland). Penn State came into the season overrated and the once-Heisman candidate QB Trace McSorley isn’t able to find the end zone enough for the Nittany Lions. They lost to Ohio State and Michigan (both at home) and narrowly-escaped an upset at Indiana last week. Penn State is struggling on defense and McSorley desperately misses a RB Saquon Barkley-level running back. Penn State will struggle against the Hawkeyes. I’m taking the points.
Kentucky at Missouri (-7) – My pick is Missouri Tigers
Kentucky got off to a fantastic start with five-straight wins. They fell to Texas A&M in overtime, but bounced back last week with a 14-7 win over Vandy. That being said, the Wildcats are overrated. They have a good defense, arguably the fourth-best in the SEC. Their offense isn’t at the same level. QB Terry Wilson is a talented dual-threat quarterback, but his passing skills are limited. The Wildcats offense is run-first with Wilson and RB Benny Snell Jr. combining for nearly all of the offense in some shape, way or form. Missouri QB Drew Lock is one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC. He has a big arm, but it does get him into some trouble with interceptions against good defense. I just don’t trust Kentucky’s offense if this game turns into a shootout. This game should be close, but Missouri should squeak out a cover at home.
Texas at Oklahoma State (+3.5) – My pick is Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns have a current six-game winning streak and are 6-1 outright on the year. They haven’t played a tough schedule, but they do have a win over Oklahoma earlier this month. Oklahoma State aren’t on the same level as many of their past teams. The Cowboys lost a lot of talent to the NFL. Their offense can’t bail out their poor defense this year. Oklahoma State struggles in games when they can’t stop the run. In fact, they have lost every game in which they were out-gained on the ground. Texas has a stout defense and should be able to run on the Cowboys, so I’m taking the Longhorns to cover.
NC State at Syracuse (+2.5) – My pick is NC State Wolfpack
NC State was destroyed by Clemson 41-7 just last week. I wouldn’t take too much from that game as the Wolfpack has beaten every other team they’ve faced on Syracuse’s level. NC State QB Ryan Finley is one of the oldest players on the team and is a consistent quarterback. I also think their defense should be able to figure out Syracuse, who have a knack for staying within striking distance late in games. In fact, the Orange have played in back-to-back overtime games. I don’t think it will come to that and I’m taking the Wolfpack to cover.
Washington State at Stanford (-3) – My pick is Washington State Cougars
Stanford has played one of the toughest schedules in college football, so far. I’m sure some SEC teams schedules will look pretty crazy by the end of the year. The Cardinal have struggled against teams with very good offenses. Their defense isn’t bad, but it’s just that offenses like Notre Dame and Utah are going to put up a certain amount of points against solid defenses. Stanford’s offense may have trouble keeping up with the Cougars. WSU head coach Mike Leach found a diamond in the rough with East Carolina transfer QB Gardner Minshew. He’s completing nearly 70% of his passes with a TD-INT ratio of 23 to 6. He has also thrown for at least 319 yards in each game this year. If Stanford pulls off a win, it will be tight, so I’m taking the points (and a possible WSU moneyline play).
TCU at Kansas (+13.5) – My pick is TCU Horned Frogs
It’s been a long time since Kansas finished the game within two touchdowns against one of the top five or six teams in the Big 12. TCU is having an off-year, but Kansas have been an automatic recipient of 20-point losses against Big 12 teams. The Horned Frogs are down on their luck, but they haven’t stooped down enough to be withing two touchdowns of the Jayhawks.
Florida at Georgia (-6.5) – My pick is Georgia Bulldogs
Florida and Georgia both had a week off. Georgia needed the breather more than Florida. The Bulldogs suffered their first loss of the season at LSU. They lost the game 36-16, and it wasn’t ever close. It was the first time Georgia played at LSU in a long time and the crowd was really into it. Georgia easily handed Florida a loss last year in Gainesville. Florida’s defense has improved a lot since that game. The Gators will be focused and they need a big statement win here to bring the morale up. I’m taking the Bulldogs to cover at home.
Army at Eastern Michigan (+1) – My pick is Eastern Michigan Eagles
Eastern Michigan just loves to play in close games. They are only 4-4 (6-2 ATS) on the season, but ever since their 51-17 win over Monmouth to open the season, the margin of victory in any of their games was only seven points. They bucked the trend last week with a 42-20 win at Ball State. Army has been another team that have had positive results against the spread. They are 5-2 outright and 4-2-1 ATS. They are on a three-game winning streak and have a close overtime loss at Oklahoma on their résumé. This could be another close game and I’m taking the Eagles in what could be a nail-biter.
QUICK HITS
Clemson at Florida State (+16.5) – My pick is Clemson
Texas Tech at Iowa State (-3.5) – My pick is Iowa State
Wyoming at Colorado State (-2) – My pick is Colorado State
UMass at UConn (+5) – My pick is UMass
North Carolina at Virginia (-9) – My pick is North Carolina
Coastal Carolina at Georgia State (+3.5) – My pick is Coastal Carolina
Kansas State at Oklahoma (-24.5) – My pick is Kansas State
South Florida at Houston (-7) – My pick is Houston
Hawaii at Fresno State (-24.5) – My pick is Fresno State
Notre Dame at Navy (+23.5) – My pick is Navy
BONUS PICKS!
Florida International at Western Kentucky (+3.5) – My pick is FIU
Texas A&M at Mississippi State (-2) – My pick is Texas A&M
Boise State at Air Force (+9.5) – My pick is Air Force
New Mexico at Utah State (-20.5) – My pick is Utah State
Illinois at Maryland (-18) – My pick is Maryland
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 100-95-2