I finished a little under .500 last week, but felt some of my losses were still solid bets. There were two that were trap games in hindsight. Sometimes there is only so much a person can do with stats and a little luck.
I tried to stay away from a lot of the huge point spreads for in-conference games. I am only betting on those games if there is still some value left on the bone.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 7 of the 2018-19 NCAA Football season (October, 13th, 2018). We also pick some smaller conference games.
Colorado at USC (-7) – My pick is Colorado Buffaloes
Colorado QB Steven Montez is having a great year. Through five games, he has thrown for 1,420 yards with a passing percentage of 75.2% and a TD/INT ratio of 11 to 2. There are a handful of notable quarterbacks in the Pac-12 and Montez isn’t usually in the first three or four you’d think of when naming the best QBs in the conference. WR Laviska Shenault is making Montez’s job pretty darn easy. USC QB J.T. Daniels has been competent enough the last two games to get the Trojans to 3-2. I’m not sure why the Trojans are this big of favorites as Colorado comes into this game 5-0. I realize the best team Colorado has beaten this year is Arizona State, I think USC is in the same tier as ASU. I don’t trust USC right now, so I’m taking the points.
Wisconsin at Michigan (-9.5) – My pick is Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor had one of his best games of the season in last week’s win over Nebraska. He gained 221 rushing yards in only 24 attempts with three touchdowns. The Badgers are one of the best teams in the country when they can get this kind of production from Taylor. Michigan QB Shea Patterson is playing more like the player who transferred from Ole Miss. He has his best game as a Wolverine in their win over Nebraska last week. This should be a pretty fun game with both teams about on the same level. Michigan is overrated by a few points, so I’m taking the points.
Missouri at Alabama (-27.5) – My pick is Alabama Crimson Tide
I like QB Drew Lock, but he struggled against Georgia’s defense. I doubt he will match the numbers that led to their 14-point loss at home. Alabama’s defense is much better and now Lock has to travel to Alabama. There are other factors, but this is the biggest factor in my decision to take Alabama to cover at home.
UCLA at California (-6.5) – My pick is California Golden Bears
UCLA is still looking for their first win. They played Washington close last week, but the Bruins are an even worse team on the road. Cal is 3-2 on the season, but have lost their last two games (Oregon and Arizona). They are a flawed team, but they are not turnover prone like the Bruins. Cal should win the turnover battle and cover against the woeful Bruins.
Baylor at Texas (-14) – My pick is Texas Longhorns
I wasn’t completely sold on the Longhorns until last week. UT QB Sam Ehlinger stood toe-to-toe with Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray. Ehlinger even out-Murray’d the Sooners by scoring three rushing touchdowns on top of 314 yards passing and two passing touchdowns. As long as they get this kind of production from Ehlinger, the Longhorns are damn near unbeatable. Baylor is once again all offense and very little defense. If Duke is putting up 40 points on your, your defense stinks. I have to take the Longhorns to cover at home.
Washington at Oregon (+3.5) – My pick is Washington Huskies
Washington only beat UCLA in a trap game last week. The Huskies were overlooking the Bruins in anticipation of the game against the Ducks. I’m not sure what to think about Oregon as they faced cupcake opponents for the first three games. Their first two Pac-12 games was an overtime loss at home to Stanford and a 42-24 win at Cal. Oregon QB Justin Herbert is an accurate quarterback, but he hasn’t been as prolific against Pac-12 talent. He is still completing around 75% of his passes against the Pac-12, but only three touchdowns in those two games combined. Washington QB Jake Browning is tested and isn’t shaken in big games. The Oregon Ducks defense may not be much of a challenge for the soon-to-be NFL quarterback. I’m taking Washington to cover in Eugene.
UCF vs Memphis (+4.5) – My pick is UCF Golden Knights
Memphis was the only test UCF had last season on their way to a perfect season. They beat Memphis in overtime 62-55. The Memphis won’t have the same production as former QB Riley Ferguson had in this game. The Tigers has more of a run-first offense. UCF has let teams run on them this season, but I wouldn’t classify their run defense as poor. UCF QB McKenzie Milton isn’t putting up the video game-like numbers he was producing last year, but he’s still a hard quarterback to stop. These two teams are among the best of the non-power conference teams. I still think UCF has a noticeable advantage over Memphis…enough to call for a UCF cover.
Georgia at LSU (+7.5) – My pick is LSU Tigers
Georgia is perfect on the year, but just escaped a road game at Missouri three weeks ago. SEC road games are brutal. This is just the second time the Bulldogs have traveled to LSU since 2003. The Tigers fans will be pumped for this one. Georgia may win this game, but that extra half-point is scary, so I’m taking the points.
Duke at Georgia Tech (-2.5) – My pick is Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
This year’s Yellow Jackets team isn’t as good as many of the past squads. The talent in their triple-option offense is a little thin. They’ve actually be relying on their passing game much more this season. They are coming off a 66-31 win at Louisville. I know the Cardinals are having an off-year, but it’s an impressive win nonetheless. Duke suffered their first loss of the season last week at home to Virginia Tech. They haven’t played much top talent, but did win 21-7 at Northwestern. Georgia Tech is a tough team to beat at home, especially if you’re not on the same level as a Clemson or other top-tier ACC teams. It takes a really talented defense to handle the triple-option on the road.
Toledo at Eastern Michigan (+2.5) – My pick is Toledo Rockets
This is where we usually pick a game with smaller conference teams. The Eastern Michigan Eagles may only have two wins on the season, but they are playing their ass off. They’ve lost their last three games by a field goal in every one, with two of those losses coming in overtime. Toledo have been winning their games by a wider margin. They are 4-2 on the year, but their two losses were against pretty darn good teams (Fresno State & Miami (FL)). EMU hasn’t faced a team with Toledo’s level off offense. I just don’t think EMU can hang with the Rockets.
QUICK HITS
Florida at Vanderbilts (+7) – My pick is Florida
Oklahoma State at Kansas State (+7) – My pick is Kansas State
Iowa at Indiana (+5.5) – My pick is Iowa
UAB at Rice (+16.5) – My pick is UAB
Southern Miss at North Texas (-9.5) – My pick is Southern Miss
Kent State at Miami (OH) (-11) – My pick is Miami (OH)
Western Michigan at Bowling Green (+14.5) – My pick is Western Michigan
Ball State at Central Michigan (-3) – My pick is Ball State
Wyoming at Fresno State (-18) – My pick is Fresno State
Hawaii at BYU (-11) – My pick is Hawaii
BONUS PICKS!
Middle Tennessee at FIU (-3) – My pick is Middle Tennessee
Ole Miss at Arkansas (+7) – My pick is Ole Miss
Miami (FL) at Virginia (+6.5) – My pick is Miami (FL)
Louisiana Tech at Texas-San Antonio (+10.5) – My pick is UTSA
New Mexico at Colorado State (pk) – My pick is New Mexico
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 72-73-1