I finished 14-11 last week, but really lost steam when it came to the late games. I got off to a great start, but the Pac-12 games and two nationally-televised late games ruined what could have been a pretty epic week. I still finished three games above .500, which isn’t a total loss.
There are some big games this weekend that weren’t viewed as important before the season. Indiana travels to Ohio State and Texas A&M hosts undefeated Kentucky. No one circled those games before the year, but now they are pretty darn important.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 6 of the 2018-19 NCAA Football season (October, 6th, 2018). We also pick some smaller conference games.
Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan (-4) – My pick is Western Michigan Broncos
Eastern Michigan is 2-3 outright, but has only lost one game against the spread. Their last two losses are in overtime. They are a much better team than many previous EMU teams, but they have really weak run defense. They could hang with Western Michigan again, like last year, but WMU’s backfield has improved over last year. EMU has been a betting go-to of mine the last two seasons, but I think Western has their number and will cover in Kalamazoo.
Maryland at Michigan (-17.5) – My pick is Maryland Terrapins
Michigan is coming off a very close win at Northwestern. Michigan QB Shea Patterson is not making the big plays everyone thought he would make when he transferred from Ole Miss this offseason. I’m not sure if Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh is reeling him in or if he’s just not seeing deeper open targets. Maryland’s offense really starts and ends with their running game. They need a high quantity of runs to be effective. Michigan is prone to tiring late in games, as Notre Dame’s running attack really got going late in Michigan’s opening game loss. Michigan will probably win, since they are solid at home, but the line is a few points too large, so I’m taking the points.
Texas vs Oklahoma (-7) – My pick is Oklahoma Sooners
This game is being played at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. Texas is 4-1 on the season and 2-3 against the spread. Their only failed cover was last week’s 19-14 win at Kansas State. The Longhorns have been more impressive than I thought they would be this season. I pegged them as a seven-win team, but they may get to nine if they keep playing well. Oklahoma is undefeated on the year, but did have a scare at home against Army two weeks ago. QB Kyler Murray is a stud and should win the Heisman. He led a master class in passing against Baylor last week. This line should probably be -10 or more, but the Red River Rivalry games can be a bit unpredictable. The last four contests have been within a touchdown, but I’m taking the Sooners to cover.
Utah at Stanford (-4.5) – My pick is Stanford Cardinal
The big question mark heading into this game is the health of Stanford RB Bryce Love. He re-injured his ankle in their loss at Notre Dame last week. I think he will play some, but I wouldn’t expect a 20+ carry game against Utah. The Cardinal are on the next tier above Utah in the Pac-12. They shouldn’t need much from Love to cover this game. They are coming off two huge road games (a win at Oregon and loss at Notre Dame), playing at home will be a nice change. I’m taking the Cardinal to cover at home (with or without Love).
Notre Dame at Virginia Tech (+7) – My pick is Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Hokies started off the season with a huge blowout win over Florida State. It was an impressive win back then, but now it looks average. They haven’t looked great since, but are still 3-1 on the year. Their lone loss was an embarrassing loss at Old Dominion. Notre Dame is 5-0 on the year and have played great the last two weeks. They started the year with a big win at home against Michigan, but then just played down their opponents the next to games with close wins against Ball State and Vanderbilt. The Hokies are going to have trouble with Notre Dame. Their run defense is sketchy and that’s something the Irish will exploit. The Irish should cover the touchdown line on the road.
Washington at UCLA (+21) – My pick is Washington Huskies
The Chip Kelly era at UCLA is still looking for their first win. They are coming off a 38-16 loss at Colorado. They were trounced and their pass defense might be the second-worst in the Pac-12 (Oregon State has the worst). Washington happens to have one of the better quarterbacks in the nation. QB Jake Browning should dice up UCLA’s secondary on their way to a cover.
Auburn at Mississippi State (+3.5) – My pick is Auburn Tigers
Auburn has owned Mississippi State the last two years. MSU QB Nick Fitzgerald has been dominated by Auburn. He has completed less than 50% of his passes against the Tigers. He’s also not racking up impressive yardage totals. He has failed to pass for more than 181 passing yards in a game against Auburn and only has a high of 61 rushing yards against them. Auburn comes at a really bad time for Fitzgerald. as he hasn’t played well the last two weeks. His offense has only combined for 13 points in back-to-back losses to Kentucky and Florida. I don’t see MSU putting up much of a fight, so I’m taking Auburn to cover on the road.
Vanderbilt at Georgia (-26.5) – My pick is Vanderbilt Commordores
Vanderbilt isn’t getting much respect from Vegas. I understand since they are coming off two poorly-played games. They were beaten by South Carolina at home by 23 points and then barely squeaked by Tennessee State a week ago. Georgia is one of the best teams in the country, but Vandy’s offense is just good enough to hang around the point spread. Also, this could also be a trap game, as Georgia plays LSU next week. I’m rolling the dice and taking the points.
Nebraska at Wisconsin (-17) – My pick is Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin desperately needed a week off. They were still in shell-shock from their loss to BYU. They did bounce back and win 28-17 at Iowa, but they needed to hit the reset button. I’m expecting a huge day from Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor. He has only averaged 4.5 yards per carry the last two weeks. The kid averaged a whopping 6.6 per carry all last season. The Cornhuskers haven’t been good at stopping the run this year. Michigan steamrolled them just two weeks ago. I’m taking the Badgers to cover at home.
Old Dominion at Florida Atlantic (-13.5) – My pick is Old Dominion Monarchs
This is where we usually pick a game with smaller conference teams. Old Dominion is just two weeks removed from beating Virginia Tech. They then had a narrow loss at East Carolina a week ago. They are trending in the right direction as they have been in every game late since their blowout loss at Liberty to open the season. Florida Atlantic was overrated going into the season. FAU head coach Lane Kiffin overachieved last season and it didn’t carry over this year. They haven’t won a single game against the spread. This line is still a few points too high, so I’m taking the points.
QUICK HITS
California at Arizona (+2.5) – My pick is California
Arizona State at Colorado (-2.5) – My pick is Colorado
Indiana at Ohio State (-26) – My pick is Indiana
UL Monroe at Ole Miss (-22.5) – My pick is Mississippi
LSU at Florida (+2) – My pick is LSU
Miami (OH) at Akron (-5) – My pick is Akron
Navy at Air Force (+3) – My pick is Air Force
South Florida at UMass (+15.5) – My pick is South Florida
Clemson at Wake Forest (+20) – My pick is Clemson
Boston College at NC State (-5.5) – My pick is NC State
BONUS PICKS!
Ohio at Kent State (+11.5) – My pick is Kent State
Bowling Green at Toledo (-21.5) – My pick is Toledo
Northern Illinois at Ball State (+3) – My pick is Northern Illinois
Syracuse at Pitt (+3) – My pick is Pitt
Missouri at South Carolina (-2) – My pick is Missouri
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 61-60-2