I went 7-8-1 against the spread last week, but I am still over .500 on the season.

There are a ton of -3 games out there. This week should be a very fun week of NFL football

Eagles QB Carson Wentz is set to return from injury and face the Colts. The offense should improve as they were a bit stagnant in both games so far.

Are the Steelers locker room imploding? They are without Le’Veon Bell due to a contract dispute and now start WR Antonio Brown is causing problems. Can they bounce back this week on Monday Night Football?

We pick ever NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 3 of the 2018 NFL season.

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-3) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

Are the Jets good? Even though they smoked the Lions in Week 1, they didn’t play too well in a loss to the Dolphins last week. QB Sam Darnold played like a rookie and wasn’t looking off safeties. Cleveland lost a winnable game against the Saints last week. It was the second week-in-a-row that the kicker failed them. He was cut the next day. This game should be close, but the Browns defense should eek them out a cover.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars

The Titans had a bit of a fluky 20-17 over the Texans last week. They lost QB Marcus Mariota to a lingering elbow injury. QB Blaine Gabbert did a solid job of not turning the ball over. The score that really got the Titans off to a hot start was a fake punt that turned into a touchdown. Once the Titans got off to a 14-0 lead, they just tried to drain the clock and refrain from making mistakes. The Jaguars are coming off one of their biggest regular season wins in franchise history. They beat the Patriots 31-20 without RB Leonard Fournette. QB Blake Bortles actually carried the team with four touchdown passes. This could be a letdown game, but I think they will fight through that. I also think Fournette will play and I’m unsure about Mariota’s status (I’m leaning towards him not playing). I’m taking the Jags to cover at home.

San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs offense has been prolific through the first two weeks of the season. QB Patrick Mahomes is killing it and is leading the league in passing touchdowns. The Niners beat the Lions last week with the team relying on running backs Matt Breida and Alfred Morris. QB Jimmy Garoppolo is playing more like a game manager by making a lot of short passes. I don’t think the Niners offense can hang with the Chiefs right now.

Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers (-3) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

Bengals QB Andy Dalton impressed me last week. He threw four touchdown passes against the Ravens and didn’t throw a single interception. Panthers QB Cam Newton dink and dunked 15 times to RB Christian McCaffrey (he caught 14 of those targets). He hasn’t been very good running the ball, but he should always be able to move the ball via the short passing game. This should be another close contest, but I’m taking the home team to cover.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-3) – My pick is New Orleans Saints

The Saints are 1-1, but should probably be without a win. They were smoked by the Bucs, but the final score doesn’t look horrible thanks to some late scores. The Saints then squeaked by the Browns 21-18, in a game that was lost by the Browns kicker. Their defense isn’t winning games for them like last year. Also, they are missing RB Mark Ingram. RB Alvin Kamara is doing a solid job, but they are missing a little extra firepower on offense without Ingram. Atlanta is another team that looked to missing something on offense in their first game. They rebounded with a 31-24 win over the Panthers. The Falcons did allow Panthers RB to catch 14 balls, which looks good for Kamara’s fantasy owners. The Falcons will see a lot of that again this week. This game could be close and a Saints moneyline play isn’t a crazy move. I’m taking the points.

Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings (-16.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings got involved in battle last week that ended in a tie with the Packers. They couldn’t get the running game going, but QB Kirk Cousins threw for 425 yards and four touchdowns. He found the combo of WR Adam Thielen and WR Stefon Diggs a total of 21 times on 26 targets. The Vikings are one of the few times that can rely solely on the passing game to win games if they are stonewalled on the ground. The Bills are the worst team in the NFL. Rookie QB Josh Allen still needs a lot of work and probably shouldn’t be starting games so early, but he is out of necessity. I hate taking a team in the NFL with this large of a point spread, but this is a huge mismatch.

Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are finally getting their QB back. Carson Wentz has recovered from the knee injury he suffered late last season. It comes at a good time since the the expiration date was fast approaching on QB Nick Foles. The Eagles do come into this game with other injuries. RB Jay Ajayi and RB Darren Sproles are not participating in practice and WR Mike Wallace broke his fibula and will be out a couple months. They may get WR Alshon Jeffery back, but he has been limited in practice this week. Wentz still has plenty of weapons to help him cover the spread. The Colts beat the Redskins 21-9, but no one really stood out. QB Andrew Luck threw two picks and they had to use a few different running backs to move the ball. The Colts are also dealing with some injuries on their offensive line. Luck has worked his magic in a close loss to the Bengals and last week’s win, but the Eagles are on the next tier above the Colts, so I’m taking the Eagles to cover.

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-3) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

The second Jon Gruden era hasn’t started well for the Raiders. They were smoked by the Rams on Monday Night Football and then lost a close one to the Broncos. The common thread in both games was the Raiders inability to stop the run or pressure the quarterback. The Khalil Mack trade may have something to do with faults in those two areas. The Dolphins have two running backs that should be a huge reason they will cover this spread. Also, if given time, QB Ryan Tannehill can do some damage. The Dolphins are an underrated 2-0 team and have won outright in both wins (they were underdogs in both games). I’m taking the Dolphins to cover.

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos

This line should be a close one. The Ravens are probably a better team, but the Broncos have a good pass rush and I like their young backfield. Denver QB Case Keenum hasn’t looked like the same quarterback that led the Vikings to the playoffs last year. He may just need some time to get better timing with WR Demaryius Thomas as he is only connecting with him on short throws. The Ravens are coming off a loss to the Bengals. Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton was the murderer in this game. He threw four touchdowns and didn’t turn the ball over. Baltimore couldn’t get the run game going and QB Joe Flacco threw two costly interceptions. If the Broncos can get pressure on Flacco, they should keep this game close, so i’m taking the points.

New York Giants at Houston Texans (-6) – My pick is Houston Texans

Both teams come into this game 0-2 and 0-2 against the spread. The Giants have lost to two pretty good teams (Dallas and Jacksonville) and lost both games within a touchdown. The Giants are moving the ball with rookie RB Saquon Barkley and WR Odell Beckham Jr., but they are just failing on third down too many times. That is a problem that has plagued them this year. The Texans has also lost both games within a touchdown (Patriots and Titans). They thought they would get more out of second-year QB Deshaun Watson. He lit the world on fire last season before suffering a season-ending injury. He was a trendy early-round pick in most fantasy drafts. He still has chemistry with both wide receiver WR DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, but too many failed drives. The Giants are a good opponent for the Texans to get their first win of the season. They are at home and think they will cover the spread thanks to Watson and RB Lamar Miller.

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (+3) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

The Packers played to a tie last week against the Vikings. Neither team really looked bad, it was just two very good teams battling each other. The Redskins laid a turd at home against the Colts. They had drives that went nowhere and had to settle for three field goals. They miss a playmaker at quarterback. QB Alex Smith isn’t horrible, but Kirk Cousins could carry the team with his arm…like Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. The Packers haven’t really put together a solid four quarters in a game. They struggled early in their comeback win against the Bears and then the Packers let the Vikings score 22 points in the fourth quarter to tie the game. I’m taking the Packers here as the Redskins played flat last week and should have a harder time against the Packers defense.

Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (-7) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Rams might be the best overall team in the NFL. They traded for weapons on both sides of the ball. They were already a solid team last year and the additions made them deadly. The Chargers have playmakers on offense, but their defense really misses the injured DE Joey Bosa. They still got the quarterback five times in last week’s game against Buffalo. The Rams offensive line is much better than the Bills line, so I doubt they will pressure Rams QB Jared Goff much. The Rams just need to make sure they avoid getting hammered by the Chargers backfield. Both running backs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler have the ability to make people miss. I wish this line was maybe a half-point lower, but I’m taking the Rams to cover their in-city rival.

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

Seattle are 0-2 on the year (0-1-1 ATS) and have a huge problem with their offensive line. QB Russell Wilson is mobile, but the dude is running for his life. This is their first home game this season and really need some home cooking to get a win on the board. The Cowboys got their first win last week in a solid 20-13 win over the Giants. Dallas was able to make some gains on the ground and get to the quarterback on defense. They sacked Giants QB Eli Manning six times…so I worry for Russell Wilson’s life. Seattle will have a hard time keeping Wilson upright and they need to score 20+ points to hang with the Cowboys, and I don’t see that happening.

Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears

They Bears are a much better team than they were a year ago. QB Mitchell Trubisky has improved incrementally, but he is good enough to avoid too many mistakes. The addition of LB Khalil Mack has taken their defense to the next level. The Cardinals have had trouble against any defense this year. Through two games, they have only scored six points. I thought the return of RB David Johnson would help Arizona’s offense this year, but he’s been a non-factor thus far. They have been out-gained by a total of 511 yards in their first two games. As long as the Bears limit turnovers, this should be an easy cover on the road.

New England Patriots at Detroit Lions (+6.5) – My pick is New England Patriots

I thought the Detroit Lions were a potential playoff team…then they played their first two games. They were smoked by the Jets in Week 1 and then lost a close game against the 49ers. They need to rely on the backfield to get some yards on the ground. QB Matthew Stafford bounced back last week after a horrible performance against the Jets…but he needs some help. It would be nice to see Detroit RB LeGarrette Blount to bang around the Patriots front-seven. The Patriots are just better than the Lions in every facet of the game. Detroit has issues and even though new head coach Matt Patricia may know all the Patriots ‘faults’, not many former Patriots coordinators have had much success against their former team. I’m taking the Pats to cover on the road.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a hard one. The Buccaneers are just out-gunning their opponents thanks to fill-in QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. His receivers are the best he has ever had. The Steelers secondary are very talented, but they haven’t showed up this season. They are allowed big plays and they are playing the wrong team if they are ‘still trying to figure things out.’ The Steelers are also in-fighting a bit regarding RB Le’Veon Bell’s contract holdout and now WR Antonio Brown is missing practice. Winning usually cures all ailments when it comes to sports, and the Steelers desperately need a win…but I don’t see it happening on Monday.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 16-14-2

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob