Thanks to some cancelled games last week, I went 11-11-1 with college football picks against the spread in Week 3. I usually pick 25 games, but a few went unplayed thanks to the hurricane that hit the East Coast.
There are some marquee games this weekend. Texas A&M vs Alabama, TCU at Texas and Stanford at Oregon starts the first week of a lot of conference games. Most teams start to play conference games next week, so we won’t get many out-of-conference games going forward.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 4 of the 2018-19 NCAA Football season (September 22nd, 2018). We also pick some smaller conference games.
Georgia at Missouri (+14) – My pick is Georgia Bulldogs
I pegged Missouri QB Drew Lock as a possible first or second round pick in next year’s NFL Draft. He has put up some great numbers so far, but he did not impress me versus Purdue. The Boilermakers defense is horrible and Lock was just inaccurate. He still threw for 375 yards and three touchdowns, but an elite college football quarterback should have carved them up and covered the measly five-point spread. Georgia has smoked every team on the schedule so far. They have faced two cupcake opponents and South Carolina. I would put Missouri in the South Carolina-level of SEC teams. Lock may have trouble against Georgia’s stacked defense. I’m taking Georgia to cover.
Wisconsin at Iowa (+3) – My pick is Wisconsin Badgers
The Badgers got upset by BYU last week. They were three-touchdown favorites and were just sloppy. Wisconsin can usually get by with a game manager quarterback, but QB Alex Hornibrook wasn’t talented enough to lead the team to a score late in the fourth quarter. Also, RB Jonathan Taylor was stopped too many times a few yards short of the first down. Iowa is 3-0 this season (3-0 ATS), but have faced two easy regional teams and Iowa State. The Hawkeyes are very similar to the Badgers, but Wisconsin has more athletic guys on the offensive line and in their defensive front-seven. Both teams will live and die by the run game. I want to just chalk up Wisconsin’s loss to BYU to a trap game, but I don’t want to discount BYU’s performance. Wisconsin didn’t appear to be prepared for them. They will be prepared this week and I think they will cover on the road.
Stanford at Oregon (+2) – My pick is Stanford Cardinal
Oregon’s offense has been prolific and they have beaten all three of their opponents by double-digits. The teams they faced were bottom-of-the-barrel teams and they only beat San Jose State by 13 points (they were 42.5 favorites). Matter of fact, they have failed to cover in all three games. Stanford is also coming into this game 3-0, but have played a couple solid programs. They beat an improved San Diego State team 31-10 and only allowed USC to score three points. They played last week without RB Bryce Love, but he will suit up this weekend. Stanford has the huge advantage on defense. I’m not sold on Oregon’s front-seven. If they can’t stop Love, they stand no chance to keep this game close, so I’m taking the Cardinal.
Mississippi State at Kentucky (+9.5) – My pick is Mississippi State Bulldogs
MSU QB Nick Fitzgerald might be the best dual-threat quarterback in college football. He smoked Kentucky last season on the way to a 45-7 win. He threw for a touchdown and scored two more on the ground. Once they got the lead, they just fed their backfield the ball. Kentucky didn’t have an answer and were trounced. I can’t say that this year’s teams are very different. Kentucky’s defense is a little better, so they could keep this within a couple scores. This year’s game will be closer, but I doubt Kentucky can keep it within double-digits.
TCU at Texas (+3) – My pick is TCU Horned Frogs
TCU is coming off a humbling loss to Ohio State. The Buckeyes are a crazy talented team and TCU just showed they aren’t among the top-five teams in the country…but they are right there in the next tier. Texas beat USC 37-14, but it was closer than the final score dictates. Texas only led by two points and half-time and was still only winning by single-digits into the fourth quarter. The Longhorns blew the game open with a block field goal that was returned for a touchdown and then another garbage time touchdown pass from QB Sam Ehlinger. Can Texas do the same to TCU? Nope, not a chance. Texas should probably be a touchdown underdog in this game, but thanks to the win over USC and TCU’s loss to Ohio State, the point spread evened out. I don’t like Texas in this game and think TCU will easily cover this one.
Arizona at Oregon State (+6.5) – My pick is Arizona Wildcats
Arizona got off to a rough start, but righted the ship in a 62-31 win over Southern Utah. QB Khalil Tate threw for five touchdowns and didn’t risk any injury by running. He only tucked and ran four times in this blowout. Oregon State was slated to be one of the worst teams in the Pac-12 and have looked like it so far this year. Arizona’s early losses helped drag this point spread down a bit. I think Arizona will win by double-digits on the road.
Texas A&M at Alabama (-26) – My pick is Texas A&M Aggies
Alabama were down 7-0 to Ole Miss last week…but then scored 62 unanswered points. The Crimson Tide hasn’t had more than a minute of anxiety in any game this year. I am impressed at how well Alabama head coach Nick Saban has used his two quarterbacks. Quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts are doing damage in their own way. The way they smoked Ole Miss last week, I understand why this point spread is so large, but Mississippi State is a much better overall team. The Crimson Tide will most likely win by double-digits, but I don’t see them hitting the line, so I’m taking the points.
Pittsburgh at North Carolina (+3.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Panthers
I haven’t been impressed by North Carolina this year. They have struggled against even the lowliest of opponents. They are coming off a 41-19 loss at East Carolina. I had ECU as one of the twenty-worst teams in the nation. Pittsburgh was embarrassed by Penn State in Week 2, but held their own in a win over Georgia Tech. I don’t think either of these teams are bowl-eligible level teams, but Pitt is a level above UNC.
Navy at SMU (+6.5) – My pick is Navy Midshipmen
This will be short and sweet. Navy’s running game will be too much for SMU to handle. The Mustangs couldn’t stop Michigan, TCU or even North Texas on the ground. Navy will cover at SMU.
Western Kentucky at Ball State (-2.5) – My pick is Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
This is where we usually pick a game with smaller conference teams. Ball State was coming off a close loss at Notre Dame and was then smoked by Indiana. I think the Irish was overrated and was getting a little too much love against Ball State. Ball State didn’t play very well against Indiana and was out of the game very early. Western Kentucky may not be as talented on offense as previous years, but they have already played some very good teams. They were embarrassed at Wisconsin, but held their own last week against in-state foe Louisville. This game could be very close and I want to give WKU a slight edge, which is why I’m taking the points.
QUICK HITS
Boston College at Purdue (+7) – My pick is Boston College
Florida Atlantic at Central Florida (-13.5) – My pick is UCF
Penn State at Illinois (+27.5) – My pick is Illinois
Kent State at Ole Miss (-28.5) – My pick is Mississippi
Air Force at Utah State (-10.5) – My pick is Utah State
Arizona State at Washington (-17.5) – My pick is Arizona State
South Alabama at Memphis (-31) – My pick is Memphis
Rice at Southern Miss (-14) – My pick is Rice
Troy at UL Monroe (+4.5) – My pick is Troy
NC State at Marshall (+5) – My pick is NC State
BONUS PICKS!
UNLV at Arkansas State (-7.5) – My pick is Arkansas State
Coastal Carolina at UL Lafayette (-4) – My pick is UL Lafayette
North Texas at Liberty (+12.5) – My pick is North Texas
Virginia Tech at Old Dominion (+27.5) – My pick is Virginia Tech
Charlotte at UMass (-7.5) – My pick is Charlotte
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 36-35-2
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.