I kicked off the season with a limp. I only went 11-13-1 with my college football gambling picks last week.
I don’t usually bet the first week of college football, but I gave it a go this year. I made some smart plays, but a few teams just pulled their starters too early in blowout games. I missed a few blowout covers by less than a touchdown.
There are some big rivalry games this week. USC at Stanford is an interesting game. You should know each team’s talent by the end of that contest. Can Stanford RB Bryce Love brush off a rough start to the season?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 2 of the 2018-19 NCAA Football season (September 8th, 2018). We also pick some smaller conference games.
UCLA at Oklahoma (-30) – My pick is Oklahoma Sooners
I mentioned last week that I wanted nothing to do with UCLA early in the year. Chip Kelly inherited a team with no defensive depth and question mark(s) at quarterback. They were favored by fifteen points at home against Cincinnati, but lost that game by nine points. The Bearcats didn’t need to pass the ball much, as they ran all over the Bruins front-seven. Oklahoma should follow the same gameplan with QB Kyler Murray passing when needed and taking off with the ball when there’s an opening. Also, the Sooners have a handful of backs more talented than the Cincinnati backfield. UCLA could be in trouble soon after kickoff. I’m taking the Sooners to cover this large spread.
Arizona at Houston (-3.5) – My pick is Arizona Wildcats
Arizona and Houston were both underwhelming in their first games of the season. Arizona lost to BYU and Houston had to come from behind in the second-half to beat Rice. Houston’s defense didn’t step up against the lowly Rice Owls. I worry about them stopping Arizona QB Khalil Tate. The Wildcats didn’t get much accuracy out of him, but his play didn’t lose the game. The Wildcats defense just bent too much in the red zone. BYU RB Squally Canada just inched his way into the end zone three times. I have to give the slight edge to Arizona in this game. If Tate isn’t accurate, he should be able to move the ball with his legs against Houston. I’m not calling for an outright win by Arizona, but I’m taking the points.
New Mexico at Wisconsin (-34.5) – My pick is Wisconsin Badgers
The Badgers are coming off a 34-3 win at home against Western Kentucky. They failed to cover the -36.5 spread, but it was just due to them laying off the gas in the second-half. This week New Mexico comes to Madison, a less talented team than WKU. Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor had a light day with only 18 carries for 145 yards and two touchdowns. I expect a monster game against New Mexico’s poor defense. New Mexico let Incarnate Word put up 30 points on them last week. This game could be well out of reach by the second quarter.
California at BYU (-3) – My pick is BYU Cougars
After watching BYU handle Arizona last week, I’m convinced they are an underrated team. They have some upperclassman like QB Tanner Mangum and RB Squally Canada that can move the ball. Cal is coming off a win against North Carolina. I’m convinced that the Tar Heels shot themselves in the foot with bad passes from QB Nathan Elliott. North Carolina is in for a long season. I’m not sure what I can glean from that win. Does Cal have a solid defense? Probably not. Are they good enough to possibly upset BYU on the road? I don’t see it. I’m taking BYU to cover at home.
USC at Stanford (-6) – My pick is USC Trojans
Stanford is coming off a win at home against San Diego State, but the outcome was not what they wanted. Heisman candidate RB Bryce Love was held to 29 yards on 18 rushing attempts. Luckily, QB K.J. Costello was able to connect with WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 226 yards and three touchdowns. Love has enough of a track record that this game doesn’t worry me much, but maybe Stanford’s offensive line isn’t as good as last year. USC beat UNLV with freshman QB JT Daniels throwing for 282 yards. He found WR Amon-Ra St. Brown seven times for 98 yards and a touchdown. USC RB Aca’Cedric Ware only had to carry the ball ten times to reach the 100-yard mark. These two teams are on the same plane in the Pac-12. I don’t see the Cardinal much more than a field goal favorite, so I’m taking the points.
Penn State at Pittsburgh (+9) – My pick is Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State is coming off a scare. They had to score in the final minute to tie up the game against underdog Appalachian State. The Nittany Lions were able to win in overtime, but it was way closer than anyone anticipated. There’s a lot of pressure on PSU QB Trace McSorley to lead this team on offense. He was in the Heisman conversation this preseason and needs to keep winning to stay a candidate. Pitt played a FCS team last week and there’s not much to take away from their win. Penn State relied on the ground game and their defense to beat Pitt by 19 points last season. They don’t have RB Saquon Barkley, but junior RB Miles Sanders looked pretty good last week. This will be a bounce-back game for Penn State and I’m taking the cover.
Virginia at Indiana (-6.5) – My pick is Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana didn’t cover last week’s game against FIU (thanks to a late touchdown), but QB Peyton Ramsey shined in their first game this year. He went 20 for 27 with three passing touchdowns. They used a handful of running backs and look to be using a committee this season. The Hoosiers are stuck in the stacked division in the Big Ten, so they need all these wins in non-conference games to become bowl-eligible. I saw enough of the Hoosiers to give them the slight edge in a cover at home versus the Cavaliers.
Clemson at Texas A&M (+12) – My pick is Clemson Tigers
Both Clemson and Texas A&M destroyed lesser opponents last week. Clemson is stacked and has depth at every position. I can’t say the same for the Aggies, but QB Kellen Mond improved over the offseason…although I do worry about him against Clemson’s defense. I don’t think the Aggies will score too many points on Saturday. Clemson may not need to score many points to cover this one. I’m taking the Tigers to cover.
Georgia at South Carolina (+10) – My pick is Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia was crisp in their 45-0 win against Austin Peay. QB Jake Fromm only had to play a few quarters in the lopsided win. They also got to audition plenty of running backs to replace current NFL running backs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. RB D’Andre Swift had a lot of success playing in mop-up duty last year. The Bulldogs are title contenders again this season and have always handled South Carolina at home and away. They are too good for the Gamecocks this season.
Eastern Michigan at Purdue (-16.5) – My pick is Eastern Michigan Eagles
This is where we usually pick a game with smaller conference teams, but most smaller conference teams are facing Power Five schools this week. This used to be the ‘bet against Eastern Michigan’ section for a long time. They finally turned the corner and was a nice bet against the spread last season. Purdue is coming off a loss against Northwestern that saw QB Elijah Sindelar throw three picks. The Boilermakers defense isn’t good enough to come back from that many turnovers. EMU’s defense may actually be better than Purdue’s squad. The Boilermakers should be favored by less than two touchdowns. I have to take the points in this game.
QUICK HITS
TCU at SMU (+22.5) – My pick is TCU
Ball State at Notre Dame (-34.5) – My pick is Ball State
Rutgers at Ohio State (-34.5) – My pick is Ohio State
UAB at Coastal Carolina (+10) – My pick is UAB
Georgia Tech at South Florida (+3.5) – My pick is Georgia Tech
Duke at Northwestern (-3) – My pick is Northwestern
Western Michigan at Michigan (-27.5) – My pick is Michigan
Rice at Hawaii (-17.5) – My pick is Hawaii
UConn at Boise State (-31.5) – My pick is Boise State
Cincinnati at Miami (OH) (-1) – My pick is Cincinnati
BONUS PICKS!
New Mexico State at Utah State (-24) – My pick is Utah State
FIU at Old Dominion (-2) – My pick is Florida International
Wyoming at Missouri (-20) – My pick is Missouri
Baylor at UTSA (+16) – My pick is Baylor
Colorado at Nebraska (-3.5) – My pick is Nebraska
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 11-13-1
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.