We tackle the starting pitching position in our fantasy baseball rankings.
There are plenty elite arms to go around this season. Starting pitching is deep due to the Majors having so many guys who who are strikeout-prone. There is a premium on Wins and ERA, so those guys will go higher in most drafts.
How will Yu Darvish perform in his first season in Chicago?
Are there any young prospects out there worth a late draft pick?
My rankings are based on a standard 5×5 league. If you have any specific questions about a different league, email me BobbyMcrib@gmail.com.
1. Clayton Kershaw – Los Angeles Dodgers – Kershaw is a once-in-a-generation talent. His gifts are so natural and a person his age with his skills rarely regresses in a hurry. He’s going to be a stud for a few more years. He’s on a great team, so he will help you across the board and get you some wins since he goes deep in games.
2. Max Scherzer – Washington Nationals – Like Kershaw, Scherzer is as consistent as any starting pitcher over the last six or seven seasons. I know Wins is a fairly fluky category in fantasy, but he’s had double-digit wins in all but one full season in his career. He’s a near-automatic 30+ stars a season and is a picture of health. He’s had an issue with the long ball, but if you pitch 200+ innings in today’s launch angle revolution, you’re going to allow a big number of dingers.
3. Corey Kluber – Cleveland Indians – Kluber is less consistent than both Kershaw and Scherzer, but the upside is right there with them both. The Indians are stacked and he has swing-and-miss stuff. He will be among the league leader in strikeouts and WHIP this season.
4. Chris Sale – Boston Red Sox – Sale made the most of his first full season in Boston. He made 32 starts, won 17 games and was the firs pitcher in a long time to eclipse the 300-strikeout mark. The Yankees have added some righties to their starting lineup to help neutralize Sale. It hasn’t worked yet and I don’t see it being a huge issue this season. He has a shot at 20 wins if he doesn’t breakdown from his huge workload last season.
5. Madison Bumgarner – San Francisco Giants – Bumgarner ruined his 2017 season after injuring his pitching shoulder in an ATV accident. The Giants had a down year and some could be tied to them not having their ace. Bumgarner is one of the best in the National League and not pitching 200+ innings last season was probably a good thing in the long haul. The Giants added a lot of offense this offseason, so there could be a bump in his Wins.
6. Stephen Strasburg – Washington Nationals – Strasburg had one of his best years of his career in 2017. He’s going to be a top-ten fantasy starter if he stays healthy, but that’s been his biggest issue. Another issue with him is that they need him to go deeper into games. It’s nice that he’s averaging 9.5 K/9, but he may need to pitch more for ground balls to take him to the Scherzer-level in fantasy.
7. Noah Syndergaard – New York Mets – He missed most of the 2017 season with a torn muscle in his back. He also has had and elbow spur issue dating back the last two seasons. Injury concerns are there, which made me knock him below Strasburg. The Mets still have plenty of arms and they will need them to go deep into games. His strikeout numbers and ERA/WHIP will help balance out the possible drop in Wins.
8. Carlos Carrasco – Cleveland Indians – Andrew Miller and Kluber get most of the shine in Cleveland while Carrasco keeps putting up #1 starter-type performances. He will be among the league leaders in strikeouts and is a quality start king. He may slip in drafts since Greinke and Verlander have bigger names, but I’d want Carrasco over those two veterans.
9. Jacob deGrom – New York Mets – The Mets starting rotation all had their fair share of time on the DL last season, but deGrom was their one constant. He may not have the ERA/WHIP upside as the guys above him, but he’ll make guys miss. He’s throwing his fastball more and the strikeouts will continue to be there.
10. Zack Greinke – Arizona Diamondbacks – If Greinke was on a better team, he’d be higher on the list. I still only dock him a spot or two since Wins can still be had by great pitchers on bad teams. He’s a consistent and safe pick to be a SP1 or SP2 on your team. He’s good for 32 starts and 200+ strikeouts a season.
11. Justin Verlander – Houston Astros – I like Verlander more this season than in most years. He’s on a great team again and will be motivated. I hope they let him go deep into games as he did with the Tigers. This will lead to a high win total on the stacked Astros team. He’s not as consistent as Greinke, but he’s on a much better team.
12. Luis Severino – New York Yankees – Severino has the largest upside of the group. All the guys above him have had multiple great fantasy seasons and he’s only had one. He improved his stats by forcing ground balls and making guys miss. His average fastball velocity clocked in at 97.5 mph, which is nuts. If he can keep improving his control, he could finish as a top-ten starting pitcher in fantasy.
13. Yu Darvish – Chicago Cubs – Darvish looked like he could command $200 million dollars this offseason, but he tipped his pitches in the World Series. He was destroyed and the Cubs got a discount. He’s in a stacked rotation and he’s made the adjustment to quit tipping his pitches. He should be a 200+ strikeout guy this season, but probably the worst ERA of any pitcher ranked this high. His ERA will probably be somewhere between 3.50 to 3.75, which still isn’t too bad.
14. Robbie Ray – Arizona Diamondbacks – I was able to stream Ray off and on the last two seasons, but people started to keep him by the All-Star Break last year. He had one of the highest K/9 rate for any starting pitcher with 150+ innings. He had a sub-3.00 ERA last season, but an xFIP around 3.50. He isn’t going to have an ERA as low as last season, but with more innings, he could increase his strikeout total to around 250.
15. Chris Archer – Tampa Bay Rays – Archer is in a tough situation. His team is dumping talented guys and he’s probably next. He’s a talented guy with swing-and-miss stuff, but may not be a top-twenty starting pitcher until he’s traded to a contender. He’s an automatic 200+ inning pitcher, so he’s a consistent source of strikeouts every season.
16. James Paxton – Seattle Mariners – I’m high on Paxton this season. He’s often injured, but I’m rolling the dice that he will make more than 27 starts this year. His control is underrated and could be a top-ten starting pitcher in fantasy he if can stay off the disabled list.
17. Carlos Martinez – St. Louis Cardinals – Martinez was one of the best pitchers in the National League until the All-Star Break. He was pretty mediocre in the second-half, but his end-of-the-year stats still make him a top-twenty fantasy starter. He’s been healthy for his entire career so far, so he’s a fairly safe choice.
18. Gerrit Cole – Houston Astros – The Astros have one of the best overall teams in the Majors. They upgraded their pitching staff by adding Cole. He hasn’t played up to his ability the last two seasons, but he still has some upsides. I’m curious if he can keep the ball in the park in such a homer-friendly ballpark. He should be an automatic double-digit win pitcher and could approach 200 Ks.
19. Jose Quintana – Chicago Cubs – The Cubs gave up some young talent for Quintana last season. He performed as advertised when he move across town. Some people have pegged Quintana as a possible breakout candidate. It’s hard to breakout as a preseason top-twenty starter, but I assume they think he could be a top-ten guy. He has swing-and-miss stuff and he’s still improving. I’m a little more conservative in my evaluation, but he’s still a solid SP2 for your team.
20. Aaron Nola – Philadelphia Phillies – Philly hopes to improve their team and move on to the next phase in their rebuild. They’ve added some veterans this offseason, so they will be more competitive this year. Nola is currently the ace of the staff and is expected to improve on his breakout season in 2017. If he can get 30+ starts, he could approach 200 strikeouts and double-digit wins. I think a 3.50 ERA is about where he should end up.
21. Dallas Keuchel – Houston Astros – I don’t mean to be this down on Keuchel, but I just happen to like a few more guys a little more. I just remember his rough 2016 performance too well. He did bounce back with a 2.90 ERA last year, but his K/9 rate regressed. The Astros are great, so even if his ERA jumps to 3.30, where I think he may end up, he’s still a guy who can help you across the board.
22. Shohei Otani – Los Angeles Angels – Guys will reach for Otani in your draft as he will help you as a pitcher and DH/OF. I think he will be a better hitting option that he will be as a pitcher. Japanese pitchers have usually had early success in the Majors, but hitters have figured them out by the All-Star Break. You’ve seen it recently with Masahiro Tanaka and Kenta Maeda. I hate to pigeonhole all Japanese pitchers, but success in Japan doesn’t always correlate in dominance in the Majors. I also worry about him being gassed out by late in the season.
23. Rich Hill – Los Angeles Dodgers – Hill dealt with blisters off and on all season. He may excel in some sort of a six-man rotation or staggering his starts. He’s an elite pitcher, but the risk of his blister issue returning keeps him out of my top twenty. Also, could this be the year age becomes an issue for the 38 year-old Hill?
24. Kyle Hendricks – Chicago Cubs – Hendricks is the sneaky starter for the Cubs. He doesn’t get hardly any of the hype, but is one of the most consistent pitchers on the staff. He was dominant in the second-half by posting a 2.19 ERA in his thirteen starts. He’s not much of a strikeout guy, but his other stats will make him a solid SP3 in fantasy.
25. Jake Arrieta – Free Agent – Arrieta is still team-less as of these rankings. I’m a little down on him this season since he’s been inconsistent. He has been streaky since his Cy Young season. Since I can’t evaluate his situation, he’s a tough one to peg. The best-case scenario would have him landing with the Nationals. He could be a top-twenty starter in that situation. He would be a third or fourth starter for them. The worst-case would be him signing with the Brewers or holding out until May to sign a deal. He could finally get the money he’s looking for if an ace suffers a major injury, but risks not signing by Opening Day.
26. Alex Wood – Los Angeles Dodgers – Wood has been stuck as the sixth starter in Los Angeles. He filled in for Hill when the blister issue reoccurred. He fell off a cliff in the second-half, but he was one of the best pitchers in the National League in the first-half. I have him ranked this high due to his upside.
27. Jon Lester – Chicago Cubs – Lester struggled without the retired David Ross calling his games. His velocity dropped a little and his stats weren’t on the level Lester usually produced. He should still be a 180 strikeout guy if he stays healthy. His ERA should bounce back under 4.00 as his advanced stats showed he was a little unlucky last year.
28. Jon Gray – Colorado Rockies – If Gray could start 30+ games, he could be a top-fifteen starter in fantasy. He has swing-and-miss stuff as his fastball average tops 96 mph. His injury history leaves a lot to be desired. His numbers at home are great, which is odd for Coors Field. He also struggles with his control that leads to three or four inning starts. If he can keep the ball over the plate, it would help his fantasy stock.
29. Luke Weaver – St. Louis Cardinals – I picked up Weaver late last season and he was a huge surprise. In ten starts, he won seven games with a 3.88 ERA and struck out 72 batters. The Cardinals have some interesting young arms and Weaver isn’t even considered to be the best. He could be a sneaky pick as he may drop below guys with flashier stuff like Castillo and Berrios.
30. Masahiro Tanaka – New York Yankees – Did Tanaka just have a down year or was last season’s 4.74 ERA a sign of things to come? I don’t think he will have a worse season and should end the season with better stats. He did have a 3.20 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in his final ten starts. He could slip in your drafts as people too often get hung up on the previous season’s production.
31. Luis Castillo – Cincinnati Reds – Castillo has the stuff to be a SP1, but I worry he may be on an innings count. He’s on a bad team and will pitch half of his starts in a hitter’s park, but his swing-and-miss stuff is staggering. Keep an eye on him in Spring Training.
32. Gio Gonzalez – Washington Nationals – I avoided Gonzalez in all my drafts last season, so I didn’t have any of the windfall of his success. He had a 2.96 ERA and struck out 188 batters in 201 innings. I wouldn’t expect a repeat of those numbers as his track record is more of a 3.75+ ERA guy. The strikeouts will always be there, and since he’s on a good team, he could win 15 games again this year.
33. Lance McCullers Jr. – Houston Astros – McCullers was a stud last season before a back injury killed his season. He never matched his first-half numbers in the regular season. He did rebound in the postseason by posting a 2.61 ERA in five games. McCullers will be at the back-end of the rotation. He could have a Kyle Hendricks-type season as an underrated young arm in a stacked rotation.
34. Jose Berrios – Minnesota Twins – Berrios is one of the most heralded young arms in baseball. He finally had some success early last season, but fatigue and growing pains reared their ugly heads. He should be more consistent this season and due to his upside, I had to rank him this high. He could have a breakout season for an improved Twins team.
35. Dylan Bundy – Baltimore Orioles – Speaking of once heralded young arms, Bundy was finally healthy enough to stick in the Majors. He was able to start 28 games and win 13 games, but his second-half numbers wasn’t pretty. It was the first time he eclipsed 169 innings in quite awhile due to injuries, so I expect him to handle the workload better this season.
36. Sonny Gray – New York Yankees – Injuries seem to be the trend this season. Gray was finally healthy last season, but struggled with his command. He still managed to have a solid season, but he has yet to regain his past form. He has one of the best curveballs in the Majors, so he could have a bounce back season for a prolific Yankees team.
37. Zack Godley – Arizona Diamondbacks – This is where some of the talent drops off a bit. Godley is a solid pitcher and will help you across all categories, but he’s not a ‘sexy’ starter to have on your team. He could fall in your drafts and if he lands in the SP4 area, he could be a great addition to your team.
38. Danny Duffy – Kansas City Royals – Duffy didn’t match or improve upon his 2016 breakout season. He had a procedure on his elbow this offseason, but it was just to clean out some loose bodies. He should be ready for Opening Day. He doesn’t have strong strikeout numbers, but he should be a 30 start guy at the top-of-the-rotation for the Royals.
39. David Price – Boston Red Sox – After a poor 2016 season, Price returned to form last season. Injuries limited him to only 11 starts, but average a strikeout per season and a 3.38 ERA. If he can stay healthy, he is a bounce back candidate. He still has ace stuff and could win double-digit games again.
40. Trevor Bauer – Cleveland Indians – I’m not a huge Trevor Bauer fan. He will be a source of strikeouts, but his control is an issue. He could be a WHIP killer for your team. I’d only have him as a spot starter in mixed leagues, but he will be drafted a lot higher than I would ever take him.
41. Johnny Cueto – San Francisco Giants – Cueto fell back down to Earth after a great 2016 season. He is only 32 years old, so he can get back to his old self; especially at a pitcher-friendly AT&T Park. The strikeout numbers took a dip last season and will probably be at that rate again. The Giants are an improved team, so he could get a few extra wins.
42. Kevin Gausman – Baltimore Orioles – Gausman found his stride after the All-Star Break last season. If he got off to an okay start, he would be a top-thirty fantasy starter last season. He’s been a healthy player and should be an automatic 30-start pitcher. He’s worth an SP5 spot on your roster.
43. Tyler Chatwood – Chicago Cubs – I’m high on Chatwood. He had a great road ERA on the Rockies last season. Those numbers fare well for a guy changing teams and moving out of Denver. He’s going to be the fifth starter for the Cubs and is a sleeper in my book.
44. Drew Pomeranz – Boston Red Sox – Pomeranz had a sneaky good season last year. He won 17 games, but he flew under-the-radar for most of the season. He will help you in every category and should be a great SP5.
45. Taijuan Walker – Arizona Diamondbacks – If Walker could improve his control, he could be a top-thirty starter in fantasy. He still has a lot of upside and potential for growth. He was once a top prospect and has swing-and-miss stuff.
46. Chase Anderson – Milwaukee Brewers – Anderson is another guy who flew under-the-radar last season. He ended the season with a 2.74 ERA on a bad Brewers team. He may not repeat that number, but he could be a great sleeper late in mixed leagues.
47. Alex Cobb – Free Agent – Cobb has yet to land a team, so again, it’s hard to handicap where he should be drafted. He will be a middle-rotation guy on the team who signs him. He is a bit of a risky pick just due to his past injury issues.
48. J.A. Happ – Toronto Blue Jays – Happ had a career resurgence over the last couple seasons. He’s now 35 years old and we should expect some regression, right? He’s still a nice source of strikeouts and should have an ERA around 3.50, so he’s still a solid SP5 in mixed leagues.
49. Marcus Stroman – Toronto Blue Jays – Stroman is dealing with shoulder inflammation early in Spring Training. I worry this could be a prolonged issue. I would normally drop a guy like him out of my top-fifty, but his upside is too high to ignore. There’s a lot of risky in drafting him, but it could be worth it if he drops far in your draft.
50. Jeff Samardzija – San Francisco Giants – The Shark will be a great consistent source of strikeouts, but you may need to deal with a few bad games. He was a bit unlucky last season and had a 3.61 FIP and a 4.42 ERA. He improved his walk-rate, which was great to see.
51. Garrett Richards – Los Angels Angels
52. Michael Fulmer – Detroit Tigers
53. Danny Salazar – Cleveland Indians
54. Lance Lynn – Free Agent
55. Kenta Maeda – Los Angeles Dodgers
56. Rick Porcello – Boston Red Sox
57. Cole Hamels – Texas Rangers
58. Miles Mikolas – St. Louis Cardinals
59. Jimmy Nelson – Milwaukee Brewers
60. Jacob Faria – Tampa Bay Rays
Maeda and Porcello are bounce back candidates this season. Also, Mikolas is an interesting pitcher as he had success overseas and is returning to the Majors after a few seasons. I also like Nelson who is a nice source of strikeouts late in the draft.
61. Charlie Morton – Houston Astros
62. Julio Teheran – Atlanta Braves
63. Alex Reyes – St. Louis Cardinals
64. Jameson Taillon – Pittsburgh Pirates
65. Michael Wacha – St. Louis Cardinals
66. Aaron Sanchez – Toronto Blue Jays
67. Jake Odorizzi – Minnesota Twins
68. Blake Snell – Tampa Bay Rays
69. Luiz Gohara – Atlanta Braves
70. Zach Davies – Milwaukee Brewers
Reyes and Gohara are two highly-touted young starters. They could be worth a late pick due to their upside. I’m also targeting Odorizzi and Sanchez in an AL-only league I’m in this season.
71. Lucas Giolito – Chicago White Sox
72. Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners
73. Brad Peacock – Houston Astros
74. Eduardo Rodriguez – Boston Red Sox
75. Matt Shoemaker – Los Angeles Angels
76. Sean Manaea – Oakland A’s
77. Jordan Montgomery – New York Yankees
78. German Marquez – Colorado Rockies
79. Tanner Roark – Washington Nationals
80. Tyler Anderson – Colorado Rockies
Giolito and Manaea are two young guys with nice stuff. I’m not sure when they will become fantasy-relevant, but it could be this season.
81. Ivan Nova – Pittsburgh Pirates
82. Collin McHugh – Houston Astros
83. Patrick Corbin – Arizona Diamondbacks
84. Jake Junis – Kansas City Royals
85. Mike Foltynewicz – Atlanta Braves
86. Dinelson Lamet – San Diego Padres
87. Mike Clevinger – Cleveland Indians
88. Hyun-Jin Ryu – Los Angeles Dodgers
89. Jack Flaherty – St. Louis Cardinals
90. Marco Estrada – Toronto Blue Jays
This is an area where you could find some decent streaming starters. Lamet is an interesting breakout candidate for the Padres.
91. Jerad Eickhoff – Philadelphia Phillies
92. Tyler Skaggs – Los Angeles Angels
93. Robert Stephenson – Cincinnati Reds
94. Ervin Santana – Minnesota Twins
95. Mike Minor – Texas Rangers
96. Jhoulys Chacin – Milwaukee Brewers
97. Reynaldo Lopez – Chicago White Sox
98. Steven Matz – New York Mets
99. Joe Musgrove – Pittsburgh Pirates
100. Kyle Gibson – Minnesota Twins
There’s a lot of hype around Minor who is being tabbed as a starter again. He has struggled with injuries over the last few years. Keep an eye on him during Spring Training.
101. Andrew Cashner – Baltimore Orioles
102. Carlos Rodon – Chicago White Sox
103. Matt Harvey – New York Mets
104. CC Sabathia – New York Yankees
105. Wei-Yin Chen – Miami Marlins
106. Mike Montgomery – Chicago Cubs
107. Tyler Mahle – Cincinnati Reds
108. Sean Newcomb – Atlanta Braves
109. Josh Tomlin – Cleveland Indians
110. Jharel Cotton – Oakland A’s
111. Andrew Heaney – Los Angeles Angels
112. Matt Moore – Texas Rangers
113. Mike Leake – Seattle Mariners
114. Brock Stewart – Los Angeles Dodgers
115. John Lackey – Free Agent
116. Chad Kuhl – Pittsburgh Pirates
117. Nate Karns – Kansas City Royals
118. Dan Straily – Miami Marlins
119. A.J. Cole – Washington Nationals
120. Daniel Mengden – Oakland A’s
121. Jaime Garcia – Toronto Blue Jays
122. Luis Perdomo – San Diego Padres
123. Adam Wainwright – St. Louis Cardinals
124. Jesse Hahn – Kansas City Royals
125. Ian Kennedy – Kansas City Royals
126. Erasmo Ramirez – Seattle Mariners
127. Jason Vargas – New York Mets
128. Kendall Graveman – Oakland A’s
129. JC Ramirez – Los Angeles Angels
130. Dillon Peters – Miami Marlins
131. Parker Bridwell – Los Angeles Angels
132. Jose Urena – Miami Marlins
133. Vince Velaquez – Philadelphia Phillies
134. Matt Andriese – Tampa Bay Rays
135. Brandon Finnegan – Cincinnati Reds
136. Brent Suter – Milwaukee Brewers
137. Adalberto Mejia – Minnesota Twins
138. Ariel Miranda – Seattle Mariners
139. Andrew Triggs – Oakland A’s
140. Zack Wheeler – New York Mets
141. Jason Hammel – Kansas City Royals
142. Brandon Woodruff – Milwaukee Brewers
143. Seth Lugo – New York Mets
144. Anthony DeSclafani – Cincinnati Reds
145. Brandon McCarthy – Atlanta Braves
146. Adam Conley – Miami Marlins
147. Daniel Norris – Detroit Tigers
148. Trevor Williams – Pittsbrugh Pirates
149. Nathan Eovaldi – Tampa Bay Rays
150. Mike Fiers – Detroit Tigers
FUTURE STUDS
Michael Kopech – Chicago White Sox
Walker Buehler – Los Angeles Dodgers
Mike Soroka – Atlanta Braves
Mitch Keller – Pittsburgh Pirates
Ryan Borucki – Toronto Blue Jays
Tanner Scott – Baltimore Orioles
A.J. Puk – Oakland A’s
I hope you enjoyed our 2018 Fantasy Baseball Top 150 Starting Pitchers rankings. We are planning on doing this for every position (the outfielder and pitcher rankings will be massive).
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.