I went 3-0-1 against the spread last week, but whiffed in my over/under picks. The last-second touchdown from Vikings WR Stefon Diggs helped me avoid a loss. I was really hoping they would kick the extra point, but they downed it instead, which lead to a push.
Weather ‘might’ be a factor since both Conference Championship games are being played outdoors. Keep a close eye on weather reports and make sure there isn’t a snowstorm or an arctic blast that pops up this weekend.
Should the Patriots really be a nine-point favorite against the Jaguars?
Can Case Keenum pull out another miracle and lead the Vikings to the Super Bowl?
We pick both NFL Conference Championship games against the spread.
Since there are only two games this weekend, as a bonus I will also pick the over/under for each game.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-9) – over/under (46.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars & UNDER
It’s been 19 years since the Jaguars has beaten the Patriots. They don’t face each other very much and it was a good thing for the Jaguars since they haven’t been good in about a decade. They are a much better team now, but the Patriots are still the Patriots. The opening betting line of -8.5 was a slap in the face to the Jags…and the subsequent bump in the line to -9 hurts even worse. No one is giving them any shot at beating the Patriots. It’s understandable since the Patriots are a very public team and they have been near-automatic against the spread…and they are playing at home. The Jags defense has a few tricks up their sleeves. They are a young, physical team with a lot of swagger and will shock a lot of Pats fans. Most of the guys haven’t been on the Jaguars when they were God awful. They came to the Jags from successful college teams, so they have all the confidence in the world. I do worry about QB Blake Bortles being loose with the ball. As long as they can run, the Jags should be fine. They have a lot of talent in the backfield, so I have faith in them. New England is a juggernaut and will still find a way to score some points…but they can’t sleep on them. The Patriots may still win this game, but I don’t think this will be a blowout, so give me the points!
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+3) – over/under (38.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings & OVER
The Eagles played great last week and I cashed in by taking the moneyline. QB Nick Foles is an adequate NFL quarterback. He’s not going to win you games, but he’s not going to lose games for you. The Vikings defense looked a little soft late in the Saints/Vikings game, but they are not soft. They will force a lot of bad passes and the Eagles talented backfield will face a talented front-seven from the Vikings. The over/under is low for a good season. I still think the Eagles are talented enough to squeeze into the end zone a time or two. The Vikings come into this game on cloud nine after their last-second comeback win over the Saints. QB Case Keenum is great on the run and pressuring him doesn’t force turnovers. This will be a fun game to watch and the Vikings just have too much going for them and should cover in Philly.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 142-113-16
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob