I finished 13-11-1 last week.
I’ve struggled picking Pac 12 games this season. I need to avoid that conference for at least one week. I tend to jump on the road teams when they are large underdogs. Pac 12 teams have been pretty darn good at home since conference play started. I still picked a couple Pac 12 games this week, but way less than usual.
I decided to add five more games this week. There were some ACC and Big Ten games that I really liked, so it wasn’t too much extra work.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 30 college football games against the spread in Week 11 of the NCAA Football season (November 11th, 2017). We also pick some smaller conference games.
Michigan State at Ohio State (-15.5) – My pick is Michigan State Spartans
Ohio State was feeling like they could move mountains after beating Penn State in the final minutes of the game. They then went to Iowa and were humbled in a hurry with a 55-24 loss. I picked the Hawkeyes in that game just because it was the first real defense the Buckeyes faced all season. I worry about them versus Michigan State for that same reason. The Spartans aren’t nearly as talented as Iowa, but they should be able to stick with the Buckeyes. OSU QB J.T. Barrett will not throw four picks this weekend, so MichIgan State will need to run the ball and control the clock. I’m taking the points.
Oklahoma State at Iowa State (+6.5) – My pick is Iowa State Cyclones
Oklahoma State played in one of the most exciting college football games of the year. They were in a shootout with Oklahoma, but lost 62-52. Both quarterbacks put up crazy numbers and even though there was little defense, spectators still loved all the action. Iowa State may not put up a lot of crooked numbers on the board, but their defense has left the best offenses scratching their heads. They have had a few bad games on defense, but those happened early in the season. They have been consistent since Big 12 conference play started. I love so much about Oklahoma State’s offense but the Cyclones can be hard to score on when they are at their best. They held Texas Tech to only 13 points last month. I have to take the points here.
NC State at Boston College (+3) – My pick is Boston College Eagles
I was bullish on NC State early this season and I’ve mostly stayed clear from Boston College most weeks. The Eagles were just so bad and I wanted to figure out if they were legit. They made a believer out of me after smoking Virginia 41-10 and then beating Florida State 35-5. NC State has had a problem against the run and it’s due to their scheme. They want to put pressure on quarterbacks and their pass rushers are in a bad position if the opposing team runs the ball. Notre Dame and Clemson both really made NC State look vulnerable. I have to take Boston College here due to their running game.
TCU at Oklahoma (-6.5) – My pick is TCU Horned Frogs
Just like I said earlier in the post, the Red River Shootout was one of the most exciting games of the season…especially if you like offense. Oklahoma came out the winner, but their defense was exposed (again) in the win. The Sooners had issues on defense in a few games this season. Baylor, Iowa State and Kansas State all put up too many points on them. TCU has won games with defense. QB Kenny Hill hasn’t been pushed to throw 50+ times a game like OU QB Baker Mayfield. Granted, Mayfield is in a situation that he could be drafted #1 overall and possibly win a Heisman trophy. The Sooners are due for a letdown game and after a few punts, I expect the Sooners to become frustrated. The Sooners may win this game but I trust TCU’s defense to keep them in it, so I’m taking the points.
Georgia at Auburn (+2.5) – My pick is Georgia Bulldogs
Defense must be the key this week. Georgia is much more than defense since they have a top offense to go along with their elite defense. The Bulldogs have barely let teams come anywhere close to them this season. They did barely squeeze by Notre Dame 20-19, but we now know how big of a game that was in hindsight. They have beaten every other team by more than two touchdowns. I wasn’t very high on Auburn coming into the season. I thought they would be lumped in with Mississippi State and maybe Florida (I was WAY off) in the middle-top of the SEC. It could still happen by the end of the year since they still have Georgia and Alabama left on their schedule, but I didn’t expect them to come into this game with only two losses. What’s crazy is that they really should only have one loss, but they made way too many bonehead mistakes in their loss at LSU. Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham has all the tools to be an NFL quarterback one day. That being said, Georgia is just too good and I have to take them to cover if the spread is around a field goal.
Notre Dame at Miami (FL) (+3) – My pick is Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Hurricanes come into this game with a perfect 8-0 record, but only 4-4 ATS. Their only marquee win was against Virginia Tech last week. You could say Georgia Tech was a big win and maybe even their 52-30 win against Toledo (their only loss). They didn’t have either Clemson or Louisville on their schedule, so their schedule was always going to be suspect. They’ve done everything they could at this point. Miami QB Malik Rosier has been a star for the Hurricanes this season. He has put up 300+ yard passing games while limiting his turnovers. He struggled against the Hokies. He only completed 47% of his pass and threw three interceptions. His defense crushed Virginia Tech, so his mistakes weren’t very costly. The Irish has been carried by RB Josh Adams. He’s arguably the most explosive running back in the nation. He could bust off a huge run at any moment. He left last week’s game with an upper body injury. ND head coach Brian Kelly believes Adams will play against Miami this weekend. The Irish have a great offensive line, so even if Adams isn’t 100%, he should still be just fine. I have to take the Irish here since they’ve been cover machines all season and they are more ‘know’ having played other top teams.
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech (+3) – My pick is Virginia Tech Hokies
Neither team played very well on the road last week. The Hokies lost 28-10 against Miami and the Yellow Jackets lost 40-36 at Virginia. I guess Va Tech’s loss is a little more surprising just due to the amount of points the Hokies gave up…their most all season. Georgia Tech started out the season with six-straight covers, but they then tied and loss against the spread against UVA. The Yellow Jackets played an fairly easy schedule and had a few favorable matchups due to their triple-option offense. The Hokies have seen it nearly every season and just like the last two weeks, Georgia Tech will have trouble against a team used to defending their quirky offense. I also believe due to their 18-point loss last week, we are getting a little extra value with the Hokies.
Florida State at Clemson (-16) – My pick is Clemson Tigers
Can Florida go an entire season without winning a game against the spread? They come into this game 0-6-2 ATS and I still don’t think this line is large enough. I know Clemson hasn’t exactly been a monster against the spread this season (4-4-1 ATS), but Clemson is the second-best team Florida State has played. FSU lost to Alabama 24-7 in the opening week, but the Seminoles just keep getting injured. They are just a shell of themselves at this point. I don’t have much faith in Florida State cracking double-digits, so I’ll take Clemson to cover.
Iowa at Wisconsin (-12.5) – My pick is Iowa Hawkeyes
This game is interesting. These teams have two of the best defenses in the Big Ten. They are built like tradition Big Ten teams with strong running games and efficient quarterbacks. I was expecting this game to be somewhere in-between +7 to +9.5, so to see that it a few points higher than my range is shocking. Vegas is not giving the Hawkeyes much respect. I’m guessing the ‘letdown effect’ by Ohio State after their big win over Penn State, is getting more credit for last week’s loss to Iowa. Wisconsin comes into this game perfect on the season, but haven’t been doing it in dominant fashion with only a 5-4 record against the spread. The Badgers only had a four-point lead last week at Indiana, but Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor got rolling and they blew out the Hoosiers. Iowa must stop Taylor if they hope to make this a close game. I trust Iowa’s defense to do just that. I have to take the points here.
Middle Tennessee at Charlotte (+12.5) – My pick is Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
I usually pick a MAC team here, or as I have been doing this year, mainly Eastern Michigan games. Unfortunately, MAC teams have started to play super early in the week, so it’s just not plausible to pick one here. I’m going with twp Conference USA teams. Charlotte is one of the worst teams in the nation. I actually had them near-last in my preseason rankings. The Blue Raiders are coming off a 30-3 win over UTEP and this game should have a similar score, so I’ll take a cover by Middle Tennessee.
QUICK HITS
Virginia at Louisville (-11.5) – My pick is Virginia
Temple at Cincinnati (+2.5) – My pick is Temple
Wyoming at Air Force (-3) – My pick is Wyoming
Florida at South Carolina (-7) – My pick is South Carolina
Arkansas at LSU (-16.5) – My pick is LSU
Nebraska at Minnesota (-2.5) – My pick is Minnesota
Duke at Army (+3) – My pick is Army
Florida Atlantic at La Tech (+5.5) – My pick is FAU
Southern Miss at Rice (+10) – My pick is Southern Miss
SMU at Navy (-4.5) – My pick is Navy
BONUS PICKS!
Washington at Stanford (+6) – My pick is Washington
UAB at Texas-San Antonio (-7.5) – My pick is UAB
Alabama at Mississippi State (+14) – My pick is Alabama
Purdue at Northwestern (-4) – My pick is Northwestern
Tennessee at Missouri (-11) – My pick is Missouri
OVERTIME!
Georgia State at Texas State (+5.5) – My pick is Georgia State
Boise State at Colorado State (+6) – My pick is Boise State
Indiana at Illinois (+9) – My pick is Indiana
San Jose State at Nevada (-19) – My pick is Nevada
New Mexico at Texas A&M (-19) – My pick is Texas A&M
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 130-111-9
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.