I went .500 again last week, but still felt pretty good about my picks. I missed a few by a field goal or less and a play or two didn’t fall in my favor.
This is the time of year when weather reports could become important. I don’t see any extreme weather conditions this weekend though. The Midwest looks like it will mostly be in the 70’s.
The best teams in the nation are starting to receive some ridiculous point spreads. Alabama and Georgia both have spreads of 28 points and higher. Can these SEC beasts cover these against other SEC teams?
Neither Los Angeles school has been very good against the spread this season. Can USC and UCLA avoid another loss against the spread?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 7 of the NCAA Football season (October 14th, 2017). We also focus on small conference games…our bread and butter!
Washington State at California (+14) – My pick is Washington State Cougars
This line is a bit odd. Cal was +28.5 underdogs at Washington last week, and were beat by 31 points. I know Washington is a better overall team, but Wazzu has a much better offense. I could easily see WSU Luke Falk go off and pass for six TDs. I know I’ve talked about Cal’s improved defense from a year ago, but WSU has one of the best QBs in college football. They just beat Oregon (at Oregon) by 21 points. I like this line a lot. I have to take the Cougars to cover on the road.
Michigan at Indiana (+7) – My pick is Indiana Hoosiers
I would usually jump on any single-digit Michigan point spread, but I worry about their offense. QB Wilton Speight has three broken vertebrae and I don’t think backup QB John O’Korn has the confidence to lead Michigan. I actually liked him as a freshman when he was at Houston. He struggled the following year, lost his job and transferred to Michigan. He has just collected dust on the bench. He’s a boring pocket passer in an offense better suited for someone with more athleticism. Michigan’s defense may given them good field position, but they need a little more than that. Indiana’s offense is better than many expected. They lost a lot of talent in the NFL Draft and graduation. I think they will hold their own against the Wolverines. If you’re going to take Indiana, I’d wait closer to kickoff to put your jellybeans on the game. I have a feeling this line will be closer to +10 by then. I’m taking the points.
Oklahoma at Texas (+8) – My pick is Oklahoma Sooners
A novice would look at recent games see that Texas beat Iowa State 17-7 and Oklahoma lost to Iowa State 38-31. Throw those results out of the window. Oklahoma was stung by the evil ‘trap game’. They were clearly overlooking the Cyclones in anticipation for the ‘Red River Rivalry’ game this week. I would blame OU’s defense for falling asleep, cause their offense had a pretty good game. I know Texas has looked pretty good since their opening week loss to Maryland, but Oklahoma is on another level. They will come into the Cotton Bowl motivated and ready to play. I’m taking the Sooners to cover.
Georgia Tech at Miami (FL) (-5) – My pick is Miami Hurricanes
These two teams have been fantastic against the spread this season. The Yellow Jackets are a perfect 4-0 ATS and the Canes are 3-1 ATS. I’ve ridden Georgia Tech on and off the last five seasons. Their triple-option ground game is tricky for teams to defend. ACC teams have had better luck against it since they have a lot of experience with the offense. Miami has beaten Georgia Tech in seven out of the last eight match-ups. Last year, they actually held Tech to only 267 rushing yards. I know that number still seems high, but since they don’t pass much, it’s a number most teams would love to have as a defense. Miami will need a big game from QB Maik Rosier. They don’t run the ball well, so his arm will need to work some magic. This game could be awful close to this point spread. I have to take the Hurricanes to cover at home.
Virginia at North Carolina (+3.5) – My pick is Virginia Cavaliers
I knew UNC would be a below average team this season, but I’m surprised by their futility. Their only outright win (and against the spread) came against Old Dominion. They have lost every game against a power conference teams. They just rollover and die on offense. Virginia has been a nice surprise. I never expected them to be 4-1 at this point in the season. I predicted they would be a bowl team, but by a slim margin. UVA QB Kurt Benkert is the reason for their good start. The senoir is taking care of the ball with a 13/3 TD-to-INT ratio. He is also on pace to throw over 3,000 yards. I also expect the Cavaliers to try to run the ball. The Tar Heels have one of the worst run defenses in FBS. It’s been eight years since Virginia has beaten North Carolina, but this is their year. I’m taking them to cover.
Auburn at LSU (+7) – My pick is Auburn Tigers
LSU is a team in transition. They lack depth and players like QB Danny Etling and RB Derrius Guice have been disappointing. They have been beaten by Troy and Mississippi State and barely squeaked by Florida last week. Auburn has been on a roll since losing to Clemson 14-6 in the second week of the season. They have handled everyone in the SEC with ease. They haven’t faced the cream of the conference, but it’s nice to see them beating teams by 25 to 39 points a game. Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham has been pretty good in his first year at Auburn. He showed promise at Baylor and I have no doubt his best football is ahead of him. It helps to have RB Kerryon Johnson to lean on. Auburn will outclass LSU in this game. I’m taking Auburn to cover at LSU.
Arkansas at Alabama (-28) – My pick is Alabama Crimson Tide
The Crimson Tide are seeing some insane point spreads. They are still 3-3 ATS, but their lines have deterred even the most experienced bettors. Alabama’s defense looked mortal in the second-half last week against Texas A&M. They looked destined to cover the -25 line when they were up 17-3 at halftime. The Tide were then outscored 16-10, only winning by eight points. Arkansas fell down a few pegs this season. They have yet to beat any power conference teams. Their two wins came against Florida A&M and New Mexico State. The Razorbacks have given up a lot of points this season. They are coming off a 48-22 loss at South Carolina. I have to take the Tide to cover at home.
Missouri at Georgia (-30) – My pick is Georgia Bulldogs
I normally refrain from taking any point spreads over four touchdowns this late in the season, but Georgia has been such a monster team since freshman QB Jake Fromm took over. He has leaned on the running game in most games with RBs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel controlling the game. Mizzou actually had their best offensive game against a FBS team last week against Kentucky, but still lost. I wouldn’t look into it much since they were outscored 117 to 30 in the previous three games. I have to take Georgia to cover at home.
Utah at USC (-13) – My pick is Utah Utes
I’ve been vocal about my man crush on USC QB Sam Darnold. It started about this time last year, but he has been rough this season. He has thrown an interception in every game this season. He even had two games in which he failed to throw a touchdown. Utah is coming off a 23-20 loss to Stanford. Some people are now starting to blame some sort of in-fighting between USC head coach Clay Helton and Darnold. QB Troy Williams wasn’t very accurate and the defense has issues stopping Stanford RB Bryce Love. The Utes defense has been very good against the pass, but do struggle against the run. Darnold will need a good game to cover this spread. I don’t trust him right now, so I have to take the points.
Eastern Michigan at Army (-6) – My pick is Eastern Michigan Eagles
This is when we pick a game with smaller conference teams. It will take a few seasons before Eastern Michigan gets any respect. They have historically been one of the worst FBS programs of recent memory. I would put them on par with New Mexico State or Rutgers (since they joined the Big Ten). Ball State went through this about a decade ago when they first started to become a bowl-eligible level team again. I rode them and did very well until Vegas caught up with them. Eastern Michigan is 4-1 ATS and are still getting favorable point spreads. EMU is only 1-4 outright, but all four losses were within a touchdown. Eagles defense is underrated and possibly one of the best in the MAC. Eagles QB Brogan Roback is good enough to keep this game close, so I’m taking the points.
QUICK HITS
Ohio at Bowling Green (+9.5) – My pick is Ohio
Oregon at Stanford (-10.5) – My pick is Oregon
Washington at Arizona State (+17.5) – My pick is Washington
Boise State at San Diego State (-7) – My pick is San Diego State
Vanderbilt at Mississippi (-3) – My pick is Ole Miss
Northwestern at Maryland (+4) – My pick is Northwestern
Rutgers at Illinois (-2.5) – My pick is Rutgers
UConn at Temple (-10) – My pick is Temple
Houston at Tulsa (+13) – My pick is Houston
Wyoming at Utah State (-3) – My pick is Utah State
BONUS PICKS!
Middle Tennessee at UAB (+6.5) – My pick is Middle Tennessee
Texas-San Antonio at North Texas (-2.5) – My pick is North Texas
UCLA at Arizona (+1) – My pick is Arizona
Georgia State at UL-Monroe (-7) – My pick is UL-Monroe
Old Dominion at Marshall (-16) – My pick is Marshall
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 82-63-5
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.