There are some big games on the schedule this week. This weekend’s slate would have been amazing if TCU and Oregon would have been as good as past year’s teams.
I stayed away from a lot of the SEC games last week, but felt there were some good plays this week. I still feel like Alabama is alone on the top and then every other team in the conference is at about the same talent level. It makes for picking games a bit of a struggle.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick against the spread for all the big college football games on Saturday (November 5th, 2016) and a few Thursday games. We also pick five extra games as a bonus.
Alabama at LSU (+7.5) – My pick is Alabama Crimson Tide
LSU has been on a roll after firing head coach Les Miles. They also haven’t played a top-tier team since then. Alabama is coming off dominating performances against Tennessee and Texas A&M. The Crimson Tide hasn’t really been tested since mid-September (Ole Miss). LSU RB Leonard Fournette hasn’t been much of a factor in his two previous games against Alabama (21 carries for 79 yards in 2014 & 19 carries for 31 yards in 2015). Alabama has a blueprint on how to stop him and they will do it again. Alabama will cover on Saturday.
Washington at California (+17) – My pick is California Golden Bears
Washington is a very good team and honestly underrated since many East Coasters don’t stay up late enough to catch their games. The same can be said for the 4-4 California Golden Bears. Cal hasn’t been a very good team on the road, but they are more than competitive at home. Cal QB Davis Webb and Washington QB Jake Browning are two of the best quarterbacks in the Pac 12. I think this will be a battle and Washington will have trouble pulling away. I’m taking the points.
Nebraska at Ohio State (-17) – My pick is Nebraska Cornhuskers
Ohio State started out the year as a well-oiled point spread-covering machine…but they have failed to cover in their last four games. They’ve only covered against one Big Ten team so far (Rutgers -39). Nebraska is an underrated team in the Big Ten and will be competitive. I have to take the points.
Georgia at Kentucky (+2.5) – My pick is Georgia Bulldogs
I’ve been hurling praises at Kentucky QB Stephen Johnson lately, but I’m not sure if the Wildcats can pull off an upset here. The Wildcats have historically had issues getting that ‘sixth win’ to become bowl-eligible in the past. They have a game against Austin Peay coming up, so it’s nearly a given they will be appearing in a bowl game, but I just don’t see them doing it against Georgia, a team that has dominated Kentucky since 2009. I think Georgia will cover and get a win closer to becoming bowl-eligible themselves.
Florida State at North Carolina State (+5.5) – My pick is Florida State Seminoles
Florida State is coming off a tough overtime loss to Clemson. FSU QB Deondre Francois held his own against the Tigers, but RB Dalvin Cook really put the Seminoles on his back. Cook has been fantastic since his poor game at Louisville in mid-September. NC State has been horrible since forcing overtime at Clemson a few weeks ago. They were then smoked by Louisville 54-13 and then lost at home to a below average Boston College team. The Wolfpack were demoralized by that Clemson loss. I expect Florida State to cover and continue NC State’s slide.
Oregon at USC (-17) – My pick is USC Trojans
Oregon hasn’t been an underdog like this against USC in a long, long time. USC may have found their quarterback of the future in Sam Darnold. He started out a little rocky, but he has been outstanding during their four-game winning streak. Oregon’s defense is very, very bad, especially their pass defense. I think USC will light up the scoreboard and cover at home.
Kansas at West Virginia (-34.5) – My pick is West Virginia Mountaineers
I kind of hate picking against Kansas in Big 12 games because I find no joy in it. They are historically bad and the only reason a large cover like this isn’t covered against them is if the opposing team lays off the gas. The Mountaineers have a talented running game and Kansas couldn’t stop a pre-schooler running the ball right now. I have to take West Virginia to cover at home.
TCU at Baylor (-8.5) – My pick is Baylor Bears
This is another game that features two perennial contenders, but with one program having a down year. TCU is an above average team and are playing like one. They lost some great players to the draft over the last two years and some of their recruits didn’t pan out. Baylor is also going through a growing process with a new head coach, but they are just as talented as other Baylor teams. I think they will cover this one at home.
Texas A&M at Mississippi State (+13.5) – My pick is Texas A&M Aggies
Alabama dominated Texas A&M two weeks ago, but the Aggies bounced back by taking care of business against New Mexico State. The Crimson Tide are possibly the best team in the nation, so there’s nothing wrong with losing to them. Mississippi State has struggled against ever SEC they’ve faced and will have their hands full with A&M. The Aggies need a strong win to stay in the top-four in College Football Playoff rankings. Texas A&M should cover this one on the road.
Central Michigan at Miami (OH) (+4) – My pick is Miami Redhawks
This is when we pick a game with smaller conference teams. Central Michigan has struggled against good running teams and the Redhawks have really leaned heavily on their run game the last two weeks. This game will be close, so I will take the points.
QUICK HITS
Navy at Notre Dame (-7) – My pick is Notre Dame
Texas at Texas Tech (+3.5) – My pick is Texas Tech
Indiana at Rutgers (+14) – My pick is Indiana
Pittsburgh at Miami (-3) – My pick is Pitt
BYU at Cincinnati (+7.5) – My pick is BYU
Oklahoma State at Kansas State (-3) – My pick is Oklahoma State
Syracuse at Clemson (-26) – My pick is Syracuse
Virginia Tech at Duke (+11) – My pick is Duke
Marshall at Old Dominion (-11) – My pick is Old Dominion
East Carolina at Tulsa (-8.5) – My pick is Tulsa
BONUS PICKS!
San Jose State at Boise State (-29) – My pick is San Jose State
Georgia Southern at Mississippi (-27.5) – My pick is Ole Miss
Texas-San Antonio at Middle Tennessee (-20.5) – My pick is UTSA
Tulane at Central Florida (-17) – My pick is Tulane
Louisiana Tech at North Texas (+20.5) – My pick is La Tech
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 125-94-6
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.