I’ve been hovering around .500 so far this year. I have moved some of my rankings around and hope to have a big week. Most teams are now into their conference schedule, so there will be less spreads of 30+ and we have some historical information to help our picks.
I went 9-10-1 last week. I whiffed on BYU/Michigan and a couple others. I felt some of the picks were ‘smart’, but they did not hit. A few balls fell in the other direction in those games.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick against the spread for all the big college football games on Saturday (October 3rd, 2015), and pick some smaller conference games as well. Enjoy!
Purdue at Michigan State (-21.5) – My pick is Purdue Boilermakers
Michigan State has been overvalued against the spread so far this season. They are 0-4 ATS and some haven’t been close. They are still a really good team, but I don’t see them starting Big Ten season with a three touchdown win. They haven’t done it yet and I don’t see them starting with Purdue. I’m taking the points.
Iowa at Wisconsin (-6.5) – My pick is Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin’s defense has been great so far. They have only allowed a field goal combined in their last three games. Those three games weren’t against a school from a top conference, but it’s still noteworthy. Iowa QB C.J. Beathard has played well so far this year. He should fare well in the Big Ten if he keeps the turnovers low. I believe Wisconsin’s ground game will be too much for the Hawkeyes on Saturday. I’m picking the Badgers to cover.
Arizona at Stanford (-14) – My pick is Arizona Wildcats
Stanford’s loss to Northwestern in their first game is worth exploring. It’s the only game they have faced a strong running game. The Cardinal have been able to drain the clock and keep passing teams from having the ball. Arizona has a strong running game and it will play out more like the Northwestern game. I believe Stanford will still win, but not by two touchdowns, so I’m taking the points.
Notre Dame at Clemson (-1) – My pick is Clemson Tigers
Both teams go into this game undefeated. The Irish have looked strong at home, but needed some late-game heroics to beat Virginia in their lone road contest. Clemson has been strong against the run so far. The Irish will face their toughest opposition on that front. Notre Dame needs a lot from their running game this year if they want to win. If you stop them, I’m not sure if QB DeShone Kizer could do it with the passing game.
Arkansas at Tennessee (-6.5) – My pick is Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas isn’t where they thought they’d be right now. They did come close last week when they lost to Texas A&M in overtime. Tennessee isn’t getting anything from their passing game. Their offense is one-dimensional. Arkansas needs a good day from QB Brandon Allen. The Razorbacks will keep this game close. I’m taking the points.
Mississippi at Florida (+7.5) – My pick is Ole Miss Rebels
Florida will start Will Grier at quarterback this week. He was able to move the ball against Tennessee last week. Their offense has been stagnant at times this year. The same cannot be said about Mississippi. QB Chad Kelly has over 300 passing yards in each of his last three games. He wasn’t as accurate in their win over Vandy last week. Any spread over a touchdown in the SEC is tough to cover, but I really like Ole Miss this year.
Alabama at Georgia (-2) – My pick is Georgia Bulldogs
This will be a fun game to watch. Alabama’s front-seven is very good against the run, but they have yet to face someone as talented as Georgia RB Nick Chubb…QB Greyson Lambert isn’t too shabby either. As long as Lambert keeps from turning over the ball, he has yet to thrown an interception, Georgia will squeak out a cover.
Baylor at Texas Tech (+16.5) – My pick is Baylor Bears
It is tough to bet against Tech right now, but last week’s last-minute loss could affect them this week. It’s always interesting to watch a team after their first loss of the year. Baylor only won by two points last year when they faced each other. This game is not a true home game for Tech, since they will be playing at AT&T Stadium instead of Lubbock. I’m taking Baylor in this one.
Texas at TCU (-15) – My pick is TCU Horned Frogs
Talking about how a team reacts to losing a heartbreaker in the final minutes…Texas lost two in a row due to their kicker and punter. TCU was on the other end of a final-minute win last week. TCU QB Trevone Boykin is arguably the best quarterback in the nation. If he had a stout defense, the team would be even more dangerous. Texas will score some on TCU, but Boykin alone will cover the spread against the porous Longhorn defense.
Toledo at Ball State (+6.5) – My pick is Toldeo Rockets
This is when we pick a smaller conference game. Ball State has went out of conference and played some tough teams so far, but so has Toledo. The Rockets even beat Arkansas on the road. BSU is a decent MAC team, but Toledo has looked like one of the best teams in the conference. Toledo will edge out a cover in Muncie.
QUICK HITS
Minnesota at Northwestern (-4) – My pick is Minnesota
Arizona State at UCLA (-14) – My pick is UCLA
Boston College at Duke (-7) – My pick is Boston College
Ohio State at Indiana (+21.5) – My pick is Indiana
North Carolina at Georgia Tech (-7.5) – My pick is North Carolina
Washington State at California (-18.5) – My pick is California
Eastern Michigan at LSU (-44.5) – My pick is LSU
UL Lafayette at Louisiana Tech (-18.5) – My pick is UL Lafayette
Michigan at Maryland (+16) – My pick is Michigan
Oregon at Colorado (+8) – My pick is Oregon
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 30-29-1
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.