Many of the top teams in the nation didn’t perform up to expectations last week. I hate betting on large spreads, especially when a ranked team faces a small school. So many things have to go right for them to cover, but also small schools sometime just show up to cash a check. It’s a coin flip.
I went 10-10 last week. I whiffed on a few that lost badly, but still feel good about those picks. Sometimes you can still make a ‘smart pick’ and have it lose. It’s all part of gambling. The same system or strategy will win games later on.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick against the spread for all the big college football games on Saturday (September 26th, 2015), and pick some smaller conference games as well. Enjoy!
BYU at Michigan (-6) – My pick is BYU Cougars
BYU is a weaker team without quarterback Taysom Hill, but not by much. Tanner Mangum has filled in admirably so far. They narrowly lost to UCLA last week. Michigan is in transition with new head coach Jim Harbaugh. Iowa transfer quarterback Jake Rudock has had a rough time so far at Michigan. I just don’t see Michigan covering nearly a touchdown spread unless they get a banner day from their backfield. I’m taking the points.
Tennessee at Florida (+1) – My pick is Florida Gators
This game will be ugly. Neither offense has looked very good so far this year. Florida’s defense had a nice game against Kentucky last week. Florida will need freshman quarterback Will Grier to have a coming out party. Florida has had Tennessee’s number the last decade. The Vols will have a hard time getting a win in The Swamp. I’m taking Florida in a low-scoring game.
TCU at Texas Tech (+7) – My pick is TCU Horned Frogs
TCU beat Texas Tech last year by a score of 82-27. TCU has most of its starters back from that team. Texas Tech did look pretty darn good against Arkansas last week, but their defense will not stop TCU on Saturday. TCU will cover this one big.
California at Washington (+3) – My pick is California Golden Bears
California won a nail biter last week against Texas. They were lucky the Texas kicker missed the extra point. The Longhorns had a lot of momentum late in the game. Washington hasn’t really played anyone significant this season. They lost to Boise State by a field goal in their opener. BSU doesn’t have the same leve of talent as in past years. Cal QB Jared Goff will be the difference in this game. I’m picking Cal to cover on the road.
Texas A&M at Arkansas (+7.5) – My pick is Texas A&M Aggies
We know one thing is true about Arkansas this year, they miss running back Jonathan Williams. He averaged 5.6 ypc and scored 12 touchdowns for the Razorbacks last year. RB Alex Collins had a nice game against Texas Tech last week, but it wasn’t enough. Their offense depends a lot on their backfield. They desperately need a ‘change of pace’ back. The Aggies should be able to squeak out a cover on the road.
Missouri at Kentucky (-2.5) – My pick is Kentucky Wildcats
The Wildcats lost a tough one to Florida last week. They made too many mistakes. Missouri is undefeated going into this game, but have played menial talent. They are also 0-3 against the spread. They have been overvalued all year and still think they are this week. Kentucky will cover at home.
Central Michigan at Michigan State (-26) – My pick is Central Michigan Chippewas
This line is just a little too big for Michigan State. They haven’t been blowing out opponents. They beat another MAC opponent Western Michigan by 13 points just a few weeks ago. Central Michigan even has a better offense than Western. Michigan State will win this game by no more than 20 points on Saturday.
UCLA at Arizona (+2.5) – My pick is Arizona Wildcats
UCLA lost linebacker Myles Jack for the season. If you’ve been a reader of this site, you know my love for him. It is a huge loss. UCLA has had horrible quarterback play so far, but are undefeated thanks to RB Paul Perkins and Jack. Arizona has been running all over their opponents. Arizona’s backfield is filled with talent. I’m taking Arizona and as a possible moneyline play.
USC at Arizona State (+6) – My pick is USC Trojans
USC slipped against Stanford last week. QB Cody Kessler had a good game, but Stanford just drained the clock on them. They had 26 first downs and had the ball for nearly 40 minutes. USC couldn’t do much with only 20 minutes on offense. Arizona State relies on its passing game, so clock management isn’t on their gameplan. USC will bounce back and cover in Tempe.
Georgia Southern at Idaho (+16) – My pick is Georgia Southern Eagles
This is when we pick a smaller conference game. Idaho is a bad home team. They are 1-6-1 in their last eight home games when facing a strong road team. They nearly lost to Wofford at home last week. GSU RB Matt Breida is really good. I’m taking Georgia Southern to cover.
QUICK HITS
Ball State at Northwestern (-19.5) – My pick is Northwestern
Mississippi State at Auburn (-2) – My pick is Mississippi State
Ohio at Minnesota (-10) – My pick is Minnesota
Miami (OH) at Western Kentucky (-20.5) – My pick is Miami (Ohio)
San Diego State at Penn State (-15) – My pick is San Diego State
New Mexico at Wyoming (+3.5) – My pick is Wyoming
Florida International at Louisiana Tech (-14) – My pick is La Tech
Northern Illinois at Boston College (-4.5) – My pick is Northern Illinois
Indiana at Wake Forest (+3) – My pick is Indiana
Georgia Tech at Duke (+7.5) – My pick is Duke
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 21-19-0
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.