Value is what you need to see when you’re looking at NFL point spreads. It’s harder to see than in college football betting lines, so sometimes it comes down to a hunch…even if you’ve spent 30 minutes crunching numbers.
I had a decent year betting against the spread in the NFL last season (133-95-10). Any year you hit nearly 60% of the NFL games against the spread is a damn good year. I hope to keep it going in 2014.
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 5 of the 2014 NFL season.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-8.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers
Teddy Bridgewater looked like Minnesota’s future last week, but then he left with an ankle injury. He is questionable for Thursday night’s game. This line will be close if Bridgewater plays, but if Christian Ponder gets the nod, the Packers could make this game ugly in a hurry.
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions (-7) – My pick is Detroit Lions
Kyle Orton gets the start for the Bills on Sunday. Let that sink in before you lay a penny on the Bills. I love Detroit in this game.
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens
Colts safety LaRon Landry was hit with a four-game suspension for failing a drug test. The smaller Sergio Brown is starting in his place. The Colts offense has been clicking on all cylinders, but that’s what happens when a team faces Jacksonville and Tennessee in back-to-back weeks. The Ravens will keep this game close. The Colts are a bit overvalued right now. I’ll take the points.
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys (-6) – My pick is Houston Texans
Let’s pump the brakes on the Cowboys. All the ‘experts’ predicted they would only win four to six games this season. They are already 3-1 after realizing they had a running back. The Texans have a legit defense and J.J. Watt will have fun running after Tony Romo all day. I’ll take the points and possibly the moneyline.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
I was on the fence until I noticed Cecil Shorts and Marqise Lee are both questionable. I don’t see the Jags being able to put up points on Pittsburgh. The Steelers had a letdown last week against the Bucs and I don’t see them taking any plays off this week.
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (-2.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears
Carolina hasn’t been the same since they benched Greg Hardy for his role in a case of domestic abuse. Also, both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart will most likely be out with injuries. The Bears will be facing a less-than-full strength Carolina team. They are running into them at the right time. Give me the Bears all day.
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-1) – My pick is Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is coming off a bye while Tennessee is beat up. This is an easy one. The Browns all day on the road.
St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-7) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles
The Rams are one of those teams that will cover a few improbable spreads…then fall flat on their faces. The Eagles are just too much ‘team’ for the Rams right now. They run a lot of plays and finish hard. The Rams will have issues keeping up.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-10) – My pick is New Orleans Saints
The Saints are due for a blowout win, right? They’ve beaten the Bucs by double-digits in their last three head-to-head games at the Superdome. Mike Glennon is a better quarterback than Josh McCown, but the Saints need a big win.
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-4.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons
The Giants have looked great the last two weeks. Eli Manning has turned things around and has taken care of the ball. On paper, Atlanta is a much better team, but haven’t played well on the road this year. This game will be close, so I’ll take the points.
Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos (-8) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals
The Broncos will always be overvalued as long as Peyton Manning is their quarterback. Arizona is the exact opposite and hardly ever gets the public money. I love Arizona in this game. There is a lot of value in them going forward.
New York Jets at San Diego Chargers (-7) – My pick is San Diego Chargers
The Jets have a knack for keeping games closer than they should be. San Diego will miss Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead in this game. Rex Ryan loves facing a one-dimensional team. This game could be tight, but the Chargers are turning into a darkhorse in the AFC West.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers
Kansas City are on a short week after dominating the Patriots on Monday night. If the Chiefs didn’t have so many injuries on defense, I’d be tempted to pick them. Their injuries are too much and the Niners will exploit them.
Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (+1.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals
I won’t be comfortable picking the Patriots until Tom Brady looks comfortable in the pocket. His offensive line is the worst of his career. The Bengals are legit and even though I’m not an Andy Dalton fan, they will cover.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins (+7.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks
As much as I love betting against Seattle on the road, I just can’t do it in Washington. There’s too much inconsistentcy. Seattle’s secondary will cause Kirk Cousins to make a few mistakes.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob was 133-95-10 against the spread in NFL games last season.
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob