I went 12-7-1 with last week’s college football picks against the spread. I could have had a historic week if a play went my way late in a few games…but that’s sports betting for you. You always focus on the late-game plays that didn’t go your way.
I love this portion of the college football schedule. Teams start playing conference games and you have less 40-point spreads. I love it. I hope to keep the positive picks going into Week 5. I am currently 30-28-1 on the season.
We were 134-79-8 against the spread betting on college football games last season. We hope to keep it going and help you guys out again this season.
We pick against the spread for all the big college football games on Saturday (September 27th, 2014), and picked some smaller conference games as well. Enjoy!
UCLA at Arizona State (+4) – My pick is UCLA
This line would be much different if ASU quarterback Taylor Kelly wasn’t out with a foot injury. UCLA is currently 0-3 against the spread after being so hyped this preseason. I finally see some value in this line in favor of UCLA. Bruins’ quarterback Brett Hundley will be playing after getting knocked out of their last game against Texas. This will be close to the spread, but I like the Bruins to finally win against the spread.
Arkansas at Texas A&M (-9) – My pick is Texas A&M
I went back and forth with this pick. I’ve been riding Arkansas this year, because they were underrated going into the season. They are now rated properly and possibly even a bit too high. I’m a fan of Arkansas running back duo of Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams. They have been running all over teams. A&M have been good against the run so far this season, but they’ve had big leads, so opposing teams have had to pass a lot. Rice did put up a big rushing number against the Aggies, but as a whole, they have only allowed around 3.1 yards per rushing attempt through their first four games. I like Arkansas, but I’ve liked what A&M has done thus far. I like the Aggies to cover, but it could be close.
Oregon State at USC (-9.5) – My pick is USC
I was a big fan of OSU quarterback Sean Mannion last season. He’s put up around 300 passing yards per game this season, but he’s missing former wide receiver Brandin Cooks (who now plays for the New Orleans Saints). Mannion doesn’t have red zone target or a playmaker to get in the end zone. USC’s defense will make it even harder for Mannion to find his receivers. USC will bounce back from a disappointing loss at Boston College and cover against the Beavers.
Florida State at NC State (+19) – My pick is Florida State
I know NC State is a trendy pick against the spread this week, but Jameis Winston knows he has to win over the public again. He tends to play the best when he has a chip on his shoulder. He didn’t have one going into this season and hasn’t equaled last year’s totals. Give me the Seminoles to cover a big in-conference spread on the road.
Duke at Miami (-7) – My pick is Duke
This line is pretty ridiculous. I’ve watched Miami a few times this year and I have not been impressed. They haven’t played well in their only two games against power conference opponents (Louisville & Nebraska). I love the Blue Devils and I might even lay a few bucks down on the moneyline.
Maryland at Indiana (-4.5) – My pick is Maryland
I know IU’s win at Missouri was impressive…but they also lost to Bowling Green a week before their win against Mizzou. IU’s secondary is mediocre at best. I predict Maryland’s Stefon Diggs to score at least one long touchdown. I love the Terrapins to cover in their first Big Ten football debut.
Vanderbilt at Kentucky (-17) – My pick is Vanderbilt
I can’t remember the last time Kentucky was favored by this many points in an SEC conference game. This is just too many points. I know the Wildcats are 3-0 ATS this season, but this is a classic ‘the team is now overrated after covering a few spreads in a row’ situation. Kentucky is definitely improved, but I’ll take the points.
Northwestern at Penn State (-11) – My pick is Penn State
Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg’s completion percentage has taken a hit the last two weeks. I am a bit worried that he’s working through some sort of undisclosed injury. I still think he has enough in his tank to cover against the Wildcats. Northwestern is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games. They are due for a cover, right? I just don’t think it will be this week. They do play Wisconsin and at Minnesota the next two weeks, so maybe they get one soon.
Western Michigan at Virginia Tech (-21) – My pick is Virginia Tech
The Hokies went from upsetting Ohio State in The Shoe to losing two straight games at home. Bettors are definitely a bit cautious right now with them. MAC teams have done very well this season against the spread when facing a team from a power conference. I just think if Purdue can beat WMU by 9 points, the Hokies should be able to win by three touchdowns (Purdue is awful). I look for them to right the ship against the Broncos.
Texas State at Tulsa (-4) – My pick is Texas State
This is where we pick an under-the-radar smaller conference game. This pick comes down to Texas State’s ability to run the ball and Tulsa’s inability to do anything about it. Tulsa is allowing 5+ yards per rushing attempt. Texas State could even be a moneyline play.
QUICK HITS
Wyoming at Michigan State (-31) – My pick is Wyoming
Syracuse at Notre Dame (-13.5) – My pick is Notre Dame
North Carolina at Clemson (-14.5) – My pick is Clemson
Cincinnati at Ohio State (-15.5) – My pick is Cincinnati
Temple at Connecticut (+5) – My pick is Temple
Minnesota at Michigan (-11.5) – My pick is Michigan
Fresno State at New Mexico (+5.5) – My pick is Fresno State
Bowling Green at Massachusetts (+4.5) – My pick is Bowling Green
Florida International at UAB (-17) – My pick is UAB
Stanford at Washington (+8) – My pick is Washington
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.