I went 8-8 in my betting picks against the spread. I am now 17-15 on the season.
I had a decent season betting against the spread in the NFL last season (133-95-10). Any year you hit nearly 60% of the NFL games against the spread is a damn good year. I hope to keep it going in 2014.
I didn’t overthink my picks this week. I re-ranked each NFL team after last week and feel really confident with my picks this week.
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 3 of the 2014 NFL season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons
I usually think twice about betting on the Thursday Night Football favorite, but I like Atlanta this year. The Bucs will miss Doug Martin. I don’t see Bobby Rainey duplicating his success so far.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+1.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens
It’s time for Cleveland’s bubble to burst. I know they aren’t 2-0, but as close as they came to beating Pittsburgh in Week 1, they might as well be. The Ravens looked fantastic last week against Pittsburgh. Their defense took over and pressured Ben Roethlisberger. Brian Hoyer will be running all over on Sunday. Elvis Dumervil looks at home in Baltimore’s system.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers
Carolina threw the kitchen sink at Calvin Johnson and Stafford had trouble connecting to him. If Green Bay can do near the same (with less secondary talent), they should win in Detroit. The Lions have had issues running the ball and Green Bay stopped the Jets from doing anything efficiently on the ground. The Packers will not fall to 1-2 on Sunday.
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals (-7) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals
It’s funny how a week can flip the public’s perspective on a team. Going into the season, no one thought Tennessee was very good. They easily beat Kansas City the first week and we all thought we were wrong. Well, Dallas beat them just as bad last week and now we are back to square one. Kansas City might actually be the bad team. Cincinnati will easily beat Tennessee.
Oakland Raiders at New England Patriots (-14.5) – My pick is Oakland Raiders
This line will be close. If the line was -13.5, I would pick New England. It’s just so hard to cover double-digit point spreads in the NFL, let alone a line over two touchdowns. I don’t see this line falling down to below 14 points, so I’m picking Oakland to narrowly avoid a cover.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts
The records usually don’t matter when these two teams face each other. The Colts will be hungry for a win after getting hosed last week by the refs. Jacksonville looks like they will be without Cecil Shorts again, who has done well against Indy in the past. The Colts will blow the Jags out.
San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-2.5) – My pick is San Diego Chargers
I like a good story, but the Bills will not go 3-0. The Chargers should also be 2-0, but they couldn’t hold off Arizona. Philip Rivers and Antoinio Gates are playing like they are five years younger. They will be without RB Ryan Mathews, but they should fare well with Danny Woodhead and Donald Brown splitting the carries.
Dallas Cowboys at St. Louis Rams (+1) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys
Am I really picking Dallas to win back-to-back games against the spread? Yes and I’m not really worried. The Rams got smoked in Week 1 and then squeaked by a bad Tampa Bay team. Dallas looked really good against Tennessee last week. They finally figured out that running the ball eats the clock and means their defense won’t be on the field as long. A healthy and productive DeMarco Murray is exactly what Tony Romo needed.
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles
The Redskins secondary has yet to face a real NFL quarterback. Nick Foles should have a fun day. They will easily cover the spread.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-10.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints
Minnesota will be without Adrian Peterson once again. I don’t think Matt Cassel’s arm can make up the difference w/o Peterson. This won’t even be a fun game to watch.
Houston Texans at New York Giants (+2) – My pick is Houston Texans
I’m not a huge fan of Houston’s offense, but Eli Manning can’t successfully duck J.J. Watt an entire game. This one might be close, but the Texans will win by a field goal.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (+3) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers
I liked Arizona going into the season, but Carson Palmer’s injury worries me. Drew Stanton is a career backup and I don’t see him being able to do much against the 49ers defense. This is pretty much a lock.
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins (-4.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins
The Chiefs have too many injuries and this could be a lost season. KC’s secondary is weak and Ryan Tannehill/Mike Wallace will hook up a lot on Sunday.
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos
First, why isn’t this a prime time game? Seattle smoked Denver in the Super Bowl and this game means more to the Broncos. Payback trumps all. Wes Welker is back and Peyton Manning will be looking for him all game.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-3.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers
I love Carolina this year. They hit one out of the park by drafting Kelvin Benjamin. He could develop into a beast. Luke Kuechly keeps them in every game and Cam Newton is a threat with his arm and legs. Pittsburgh looked old against Baltimore and almost let Cleveland comeback after being down by 20+ points in Week 1. Big Ben will have a hard day at the office.
Chicago Bears at New York Jets (-2.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears
New York’s defense would be too much for the old Jay Cutler…but this year’s version of Jay Cutler has plenty of weapons and checks down well. The Bears do well in prime time with head coach Marc Trestman. His teams come in prepared. I love the Bears on Monday night to win.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob was 133-95-10 against the spread in NFL games last season.
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob