I had my best week of the season. I went 16-4 with my picks against the spread. Stanford, Vanderbilt and Kansas State really came through for me. Those three moneyline plays are my best calls of the year. I am now 98-58-7 on the season.
I like a lot of road underdogs in Week 12 of the 2013 college football season (November 16th to be exact). The home favorites are overvalued this week. You get that at this point in the season. Bettors have a habit of sticking with teams they’ve had success with all year. Vegas knows this, so those teams will have a point spread with little value in their favor.
We pick against the spread for all the big college football games on Saturday, plus a few games in the MAC and American Athletic Conference as always…we also sneak in Wednesday and Thursday night games . Enjoy!
Vanderbilt at Kentucky (+13) – My pick is Vanderbilt
I’ve watched parts of every Kentucky game this season (it’s hard to stomach an entire game). They often play like the other team has an extra guy on the field. I know they are 4-5 ATS, same as Vandy, but UK’s point spread wins came against Alabama State, Mississippi State, South Carolina and Miami (OH). Miami is winless, Alabama State is an FCS team, South Carolina didn’t have Clowney in that game and Mississippi State is all over the place. Give me Vandy to cover in Lexington.
Michigan at Northwestern (-3) – My pick is Michigan
Michigan is 0-3 ATS on the road and haven’t won a game against the spread in which they were underdogs. That being said, Northwestern hasn’t looked like an FBS team since they lost to Ohio State. They have lost five straight games after starting the season 4-0. Northwestern’s recent woes makes Michigan look like a smart play. This line started out at +2.5 and has been bet up to -3. I feel like there is finally some value in a Michigan point spread. I may put a few jellybeans on the Wolverines to win in Evanston.
Oklahoma State at Texas (+3) – My pick is Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State is consistently covering point spreads. They have beating their opponents by double the point spread. Texas is all over the place, but I was impressed with their offense against West Virginia (but many teams look good against the Mountaineers secondary). Mack Brown will not get the Oklahoma sweep. I like the Cowboys to cover in Austin.
Texas Tech at Baylor (-27) – My pick is Baylor
If this game happened a month ago, I wouldn’t have picked Baylor to cover a 27-point spread. Since then, Texas Tech faced the meat of their schedule and we know more about them. Baylor has impressed me all season. I love their offense and their defensive secondary is underrated. TTU’s QBs David Webb and Baker Mayfield will have trouble passing the ball. Baylor will cover at home against Texas Tech.
Houston at Louisville (-15.5) – My pick is Houston
Louisville has been a moneypit all season. They were touted as a potential ‘BCS buster’ this preseason, but things haven’t went as planned. Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater has a future playing on Sundays, but Houston QB John O’Korn is no slouch. Both teams lost to Central Florida in close games. When you compare common opponents, it’s pretty even. I have to take Houston in this game. 15.5 points is just too high for me to put any jellybeans on Louisville.
Georgia at Auburn (-4) – My pick is Georgia
I feel dirty picking Georgia. They are 1-7-1 against the spread and I have missed on them nearly every time (minus the South Carolina game). Georgia is getting healthy at the right time. This game is a trap game for Auburn. Their next game is against Alabama. Georgia will go into Auburn and give them a close game. A few jellybeans could be bet on Georgia…it’s a possibility.
Georgia Tech at Clemson (-10.5) – My pick is Clemson
There’s not much analysis attached to this pick. If you take away the Florida State game, Clemson has been consistent. The FSU game was their last home game and they want to erase that memory. I expect Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins to go off early and cover at home.
Oregon State at Arizona State (-14) – My pick is Oregon State
My love of Sean Mannion might be clouding my judgment a bit, but two touchdown is a pretty big spread to cover. Mannion’s last two games have been pedestrian, but Arizona State’s secondary isn’t good. OSU is going into this game a bit bruised, but they’ll surprise Arizona State. The Sun Devils haven’t played a tough opponent since Notre Dame (Utah is a bit overrated). Give me the Beavers to prevent an ASU cover.
Stanford at USC (+3.5) – My pick is Stanford
After the Cardinal manhandled Oregon last week, how could you NOT pick them? I love Stanford in this game. USC is on a little winning streak with wins over Cal, Oregon State and Utah, but Stanford is in a different class.
Ball State at Northern Illinois (-7) – My pick is Northern Illinois
This is the section of the post where I pick a non-BCS conference game (I watch a ton of football and have actually watched both teams play this season). I love my Ball State Cardinals and they’ve been very good to me this season…but I can’t pick them against Northern Illinois. The Cardinals can’t stop the rush (six teams have averaged over 6.0 yards per attempt this season against BSU). NIU has one of the best rushing attacks in the nation. Sadly, I must pick Northern Illinois to cover at home. I’m sorry, Muncie…go prove me wrong!
QUICK HITS
Indiana at Wisconsin (-21.5) – My pick is Wisconsin
Ohio State at Illinois (+32) – My pick is Ohio State
Florida at South Carolina (-13.5) – My pick is South Carolina
Alabama at Mississippi State (+25) – My pick is Alabama
Washington at UCLA (-2.5) – My pick is UCLA
West Virginia at Kansas (+6.5) – My pick is West Virginia
Cincinnati at Rutgers (pk) – My pick is Cincinnati
Purdue at Penn State (-21.5) – My pick is Penn State
Michigan State at Nebraska (+6.5) – My pick is Michigan State
TCU at Kansas State (-10.5) – My pick is Kansas State
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.