Thanks to Michigan, Miami and Texas Tech, I had a .500 week. I’m still 82-54-7 on the season, which is much better than many of my sports betting friends.
I like a lot of favorites in Week 11 of the 2013 college football season (November 9th to be exact). I usually find value in underdogs at this point in the season, but the slate of games this weekend doesn’t fair well for those teams.
When making a bet at this point in the season, look to see if any teams played a common opponent. Also, keep an eye on weather reports. The temps are falling across the Midwest, so that could be a factor when a warm-weather team travels.
We pick against the spread for all the big college football games on Saturday, plus a few games in the MAC and American Athletic Conference as always…we also sneak in TWO Thursday night games 
. Enjoy!
UCLA at Arizona (+1) – My pick is UCLA
This game is a coin flip. UCLA and Arizona have both been underwhelming in big games. UCLA beat Nebraska early in the year, but have lost against Oregon and Stanford in the last few weeks. Arizona doesn’t own a marquee victory. I’ve had success in the past when betting against Rich Rodriguez and I feel confident UCLA will win on Saturday.
BYU at Wisconsin (-7.5) – My pick is Wisconsin
BYU looked like a ranked team in the middle of the season, but haven’t looked great when facing BCS-conference teams. Their opening week loss to Virginia is a huge red flag. Wisconsin has re-dedicated their offense to running the ball. BYU has a balanced offense, but QB Taysom Hill has thrown for over 300 yards passing yards the last two weeks. Wisconsin’s defense is better than Boise State and Wisconsin will make Hill work for completions. I like Wisconsin to cover at home, but the cover might be close.
LSU at Alabama (-12) – My pick is Alabama
Alabama has only given up two touchdowns in the lat SIX games. Their offense is clicking and LSU is playing them at the wrong time. Both teams have NFL talent on defense, so this contest could be low-scoring. The over/under is set at 55, which is absurd. LSU has been overrated by Vegas and the public for most of the season (4-4-1 ATS). This contest very well could be a 24-9 game. I like Alabama to win by two touchdowns with a slight cover.
Oklahoma at Baylor (-14.5) – My pick is Baylor
My pick is more about my dislike of Oklahoma (they are overrated by Vegas and public for most of the season) than my love of Baylor. Baylor’s offense is amazing, but Oklahoma’s defense is a top-10 defense. This is Baylor first true test, so they’re a wild-card. They play a ranked opponent for the next three weeks, so we will know more about them after this run. I liked this spread more at -13.5 or -14, but I’ll take the half-point bait and pick Baylor to cover at home.
Vanderbilt at Florida (-10) – My pick is Vanderbilt
The last time Vandy beat Florida, Ronald Reagan was President (1988). Florida has won the last 22 games against Vanderbilt. I know all-time records shouldn’t factor in to a current season, but Vandy knows Florida is in a down year. This is the best shot they’ve had to beat the Gators since Jay Cutler was their quarterback and forced an overtime. A double-digit spread is too good to pass up…for Vanderbilt. Give me the Commodores to go into Gainesville and give Florida a good game. I may even put a few jellybeans on the moneyline.
Missouri at Kentucky (-14) – My pick is Missouri
Kentucky is coming off a victory against the powerhouse Alabama…State. They are 2-6 on the season and their other win came against an 0-9 Miami (OH) football team. I love Mizzou this season (even though an ex-girlfriend graduated from there…I’ve had past success betting against ‘ex-gf schools’, but I changed it up this season). Missouri will blow the Wildcats out in Lexington. This one is a lock.
Syracuse at Maryland (-6) – My pick is Syracuse
First off, let me give you a warning…I haven’t had much luck picking Syracuse or Maryland games this season, I’m probably .500. They are very inconsistent teams. Syracuse went from losing to Georgia Tech 56-0 to blanking Wake Forest 13-0 the next week. The Terps started out the season playing really well, but they haven’t been the same since Florida State shut them out 63-0 last month. Maryland will not cover against Syracuse on Saturday.
Oregon at Stanford (+10) – My pick is Stanford
I love Oregon this season. I’d love to see an Oregon vs. Baylor BCS Championship game, but Alabama, Ohio State…and STANFORD are in the way. Stanford’s offense is unable to keep up with the Ducks, unless they play physical (which is a big possibility). Their defense is the best Oregon will face in the regular season, but you can’t count out Oregon will put up crooked numbers on the scoreboard. I could see Oregon go into Stanford and ‘do work’, but double-digits will be difficult to cover. This game will be close.
Auburn at Tennessee (+7.5) – My pick is Auburn
I’ve watched most Auburn and Tennessee games this season. Auburn’s rushing attack is one of the best in the country…and the Vols haven’t out-rushed an opponent since they played South Alabama in September. Auburn shouldn’t have any trouble covering in Knoxville.
Florida International at Middle Tennessee (-18.5) – My pick is Middle Tennessee
This is the section of the post where I pick a non-BCS conference game (I watch a ton of football and have actually watched both teams play this season). I honestly believe Middle Tennessee could give the Vols a run for their money (I’m kidding…sort of). Their not an elite non-BCS school, but they’ll handle a cover against a poor FIU squad.
QUICK HITS
Illinois at Indiana (-10) – My pick is Indiana
Iowa at Purdue (+15) – My pick is Iowa
Virginia Tech at Miami (FL) (-6.5) – My pick is Miami (FL)
Texas at West Virginia (+7) – My pick is West Virginia
Nebraska at Michigan (-7) – My pick is Michigan
Mississippi State at Texas A&M (-19.5) – My pick is Texas A&M
Penn State at Minnesota (-2.5) – My pick is Minnesota
Kansas State at Texas Tech (-3) – My pick is Kansas State
Florida State at Wake Forest (+35) – My pick is Florida State
Central Michigan at Ball State (-22) – My pick is Central Michigan
*These picks are for entertainment purposes