I had my first solid week of the year after going 16-9 last week. I felt like I had a solid grasp on the outcomes and would have had a better week if not for a couple fluke covers…but there’s nothing you can do about those.
I’m glad that there aren’t as many 30+ point spreads this week. Teams are starting to get into the meat of their schedules and conference games will be in full force by next week. I hate having to bet on huge spreads, since it just adds a lot more to factor in when picking games.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick against the spread for all the big college football games on Saturday (September 24th, 2016) and a few Thursday games. We also pick five extra games as a bonus.
California at Arizona State (-4) – My pick is Arizona State Sun Devils
Cal QB Davis Webb has been fantastic for the Golden Bears since transferring from Texas Tech. If Cal had any defense at all, they would be undefeated, but their defense is horrible. San Diego State star RB Donnel Pumphrey had a monster game against Cal three weeks ago. I think Arizona State’s three-headed rushing attack of Demaico Richard, Manny Wilkins and Kalen Ballage should have a lot of success against the bad Cal defense. Cal’s passing attack will keep this game close late, but Arizona State should cover.
Arkansas at Texas A&M (-6) – My pick is Arkansas Razorbacks
I picked Texas A&M to cover against Auburn last week, not because I find A&M to be a monster team, but because I have little to no faith in Auburn. The Aggies took care of business and solidified my opinion of Auburn. They didn’t do much for my opinion of them. Arkansas will go after A&M on the ground. I can see the Razorbacks getting an early lead. A&M QB Trevor Knight has only had one good game for Texas A&M this season. I don’t think A&M will pull away. I’m taking the points.
Stanford at UCLA (+3) – My pick is Stanford Cardinal
Stanford has owned UCLA for the last decade. I predict UCLA will see a lot of stud Christian McCaffrey. It’s not a very bold prediction as he has been Stanford’s offense the last two years. He will get plenty of carries and short receptions. The Cardinal will nickel and dime UCLA all game. I loved UCLA QB Josh Rosen going into the season, but his 4/4 TD to INT ratio has left me with a sour taste in my mouth. Rosen needs a running game to be productive. I don’t see them running much against Stanford. I’m taking the Cardinal to cover on the road.
South Carolina at Kentucky (-2.5) – My pick is South Carolina Gamecocks
There aren’t many SEC teams Kentucky will be favored against this season, South Carolina might be the only one. Kentucky’s defense has been God awful this year. They even made New Mexico State look like a competent team last week. Grambling transfer QB Stephen Johnson came in the game for Kentucky last week and played much better than starter Drew Barker. Johnson could start again since Barker is dealing with back injury. South Carolina freshman QB Brandon McIlwan will have his best game of his young career. I just have no faith in Kentucky’s defense against a top 100 college football team. I’m taking the points in this game.
Oklahoma State at Baylor (-7.5) – My pick is Baylor Bears
Baylor is a different team under new head coach Jim Grobe. He has shown a better grasp at coaching up a defense and relies more on the running game. Oklahoma State is pass-heavy and the Baylor defense will see a lot of the QB Mason Rudolph & WR James Washington combo. I’d love this line if it were a touchdown or less, but I’ll roll the dice and take Baylor to cover at home.
LSU at Auburn (+3.5) – My pick is LSU Tigers
I said it last week and earlier in this post, Auburn is overrated. LSU were also rated way too high going into the season, but that is what happens when you have a Heisman-caliber running back like Leonard Fournette. LSU will cover and it shouldn’t be close.
Florida at Tennessee (-7) – My pick is Tennessee Volunteers
I realize I’ve been SEC-heavy so far. It’s just that I found a lot of value in their lines this week. Tennessee has been underwhelming at times. The Vols were ranked too high going into the season and didn’t deserve that kind of ranking, but they are a very good team. They are still undefeated, but are guilty of only playing up to their competition. Both teams are 1-2 ATS, but Florida has had a cupcake schedule so far. I don’t like Florida QB Austin Appleby in this game (but kudos for him on dating an NFL cheerleader). I’m taking the Vols to cover.
Penn State at Michigan (-19) – My pick is Penn State Nittany Lions
Michigan has one of the best defenses in college football, but I don’t think it’s good enough to garner this big of a point spread. Penn State is a competitive Big Ten team and I don’t think any top Big Ten team can cover this big of a spread against any competitive teams in the conference. Penn State will keep this one within 20 points.
Georgia at Ole Miss (-7) – My pick is Georgia Bulldogs
I’ve been quite vocal about Nick Chubb this season. I don’t think he is 100% and Georgia rushed him back. I think this is the game he will look like his former self. Ole Miss have allowed a ton of yards on the ground this season. The Bulldogs may not get the victory, but they should keep it close, so I’m taking the points.
Appalachian State at Akron (+6) – My pick is Akron Zips
This is when we pick a game with smaller conference teams. Appalachian State has had a few highlights this year, but are coming off a blowlout loss to the Miami Hurricanes. Akron is one of the teams from the MAC that always ends up finishing near the top of the conference. Akron needs a big game from QB Thomas Woodson since Appalachian State could be without their star RB Marcus Cox. I’m taking the points due to the uncertainty of Cox.
QUICK HITS
Ball State at Florida Atlantic (+3.5) – My pick is Ball State
Duke at Notre Dame (+20.5) – My pick is Notre Dame
TCU at SMU (+21) – My pick is TCU
Texas-San Antonio at Old Dominion (-3.5) – My pick is UTSA
Wake Forest at Indiana (-7.5) – My pick is Wake Forest
Nevada at Purdue (-5.5) – My pick is Purdue
Charlotte at Temple (-27.5) – My pick is Charlotte
Pittsburgh at North Carolina (-7) – My pick is Pittsburgh
West Virginia at BYU (+7.5) – My pick is BYU
Clemson at Georgia Tech (+10.5) – My pick is Clemson
BONUS PICKS!
Central Michigan at Virginia (+3) – My pick is Central Michigan
New Mexico State at Troy (-20) – My pick is Troy
Georgia Southern at Western Michigan (-7) – My pick is Western Michigan
Southern Miss at UTEP (+10.5) – My pick is Southern Miss
Louisiana Tech at Middle Tennessee (-5.5) – My pick is Louisiana Tech
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 42-32-1
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.