I went 12-13 against the spread last week.
The Big Ten has been weird so far. We’ve had teams like Indiana, Rutgers and Michigan State score victories over teams we expected to sail through those games. Maybe those teams have improved greatly since last season, but I doubt we will see Rutgers among the top-tier of teams in the conference at year’s end. Ohio State could be the best team in the conference by a large margin.
The marquee games this week are Florida vs Georgia (in Jacksonville) and Clemson at Notre Dame.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 9 of the 2020-21 NCAA Football season (November 7th, 2020).
Florida vs Georgia (-3.5) – My pick is Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia is coming off a 14-3 win against Kentucky Georgia QB Stetson Bennett threw for 131 yards on 13 attempts. He didn’t need to air it out much since RB Zamir White was able to move the ball well. I think they realized that Kentucky QB Joey Gatewood was in over his head. As long as they moved the ball and drained the clock, they were going to get the win. This week’s game will be much different. They may need to throw the ball more against Florida’s impressive passing attack. The Gator offense will be live and die by the pass in this game. Georgia’s pass defense is good, but they did allow Alabama QB Mac Jones to throw 417 yards against them last month. Florida’s biggest weakness is their run defense. If Georgia can rack up some yards on the ground, it would greatly help Bennett. This could be close to the spread, but I think Georgia will cover this game at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville.
Stanford at Oregon (-7.5) – My pick is Oregon Ducks
Stanford is coming of a bad year of injuries. They only won four games last year, with three of those against the Pac 12. They do return some starters, but you could view this has the start of a rebuild. Oregon is coming off a win over Wisconsin in a January first bowl game. They will need to replace QB Justin Herbert and that man is QB Tyler Shough. He barely played last year, but they like him. Oregon’s recruiting was strong and I think they have the talent to replace some of the talent lost to graduation and NFL Draft. I think Oregon will win this game by double-digits.
Clemson at Notre Dame (+5) – My pick is Clemson Tigers
Clemson will be without QB Trevor Lawrence due to contracting COVID-19. They were without him last week against Boston College as well. Clemson beat BC 34-28 and they started freshman QB D.J. Uiagalelei. He was better than expected and threw for 342 yards and scored three total touchdowns. Notre Dame has had a fairly easy schedule so far. In games against low-level ACC teams, Notre Dame QB Ian Book has racked up some great stats. There have been some bad games sprinkled in there as well. I don’t have a ton of confidence that he will perform well against a team as talented as Clemson. I don’t think Clemson is as good without Lawrence, but I do believe they are five-points better than Notre Dame with Uiagalelei.
Arizona State at USC (-11) – My pick is Arizona State Sun Devils
I’m not sure why this spread is so large. I am high on Arizona State QB Jayden Daniels this year. He has some good weapons and I think their defense has improved since a year ago. On the flipside, I am less optimistic about USC QB Kedon Slovis this year. He will miss not having a stud like WR Michael Pittman Jr., even though he has a couple good wide receivers left on the roster. Wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tyler Vaughns will get plenty of targets, but I don’t see either of them as game-changers. USC will most likely win this game, but I think we will have a shoot-out. I’m taking the points.
Michigan at Indiana (+3) – My pick is Michigan Wolverines
Last week was weird in the Big Ten. Michigan was never in control in their loss to Michigan State. The Spartans are expected to have another down year after changing their head coach. I don’t know a single person who laid money down on the Spartans moneyline in that game. That being said, this is a rivalry that doesn’t get much oxygen nationally. There are a ton of Spartan players that have a chip on their shoulder that the University of Michigan never offered them a scholarship. It was a much bigger game to them than it was for Michigan. Does that explain the outcome, maybe, but it was clear that Michigan State was better that day…but I think Michigan is the better team overall. This is the first time Indiana comes into this meeting as the higher-ranked team. They are undefeated on the year after an upset win against Penn State and last week’s win over Rutgers. The Hoosiers are a solid Big Ten team, but I don’t see them among the top of the conference. The Wolverines will run the ball much better against Indiana than it did a week ago. If they become less one-dimensional, the better Michigan QB Joe Milton will be. I’m taking the Wolverines to cover on the road in Bloomington.
North Carolina at Duke (+11.5) – My pick is North Carolina Tar Heels
I probably say this every week, but I was a fanboy of UNC QB Sam Howell going into the season. I still think highly of him, but it’s clear that his team’s defense is failing him most weeks. Howell had his best game of the year in last week’s loss to Virginia. He threw for 443 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. I think they should be able to deal with Duke’s rather average offense. I just haven’t seen anything impressive from Duke this year. They have come up short in games that I thought they would keep close and then overperformed against bad teams. I think North Carolina will cover on Saturday.
Boston College at Syracuse (+14) – My pick is Boston College Eagles
Boston College was able to keep a Trevor Lawrence-less Clemson team within a touchdown. I’ve liked BC most weeks and are 5-2 against the spread. It was a smart decision for QB Phil Jurkovec to transfer from Notre Dame. He has been great for the Eagles and is the main reason why they have been competitive nearly every week. Syracuse had a nice little run against the spread early this season, but are 1-3 against the spread since losing QB Tommy DeVito. He wasn’t a great quarterback, but he was good enough to keep games from getting ridiculous. I’m taking Boston College to cover in Syracuse.
Baylor at Iowa State (-14) – My pick is Baylor Bears
Iowa State lives and die by their running game. Iowa State QB Brock Purdy has not been very good this season. A little of that might be by design since they are running the ball so much, but all his numbers are down from last year. Baylor QB Charlie Brewer is another Big 12 quarterback that isn’t matching last year’s numbers. Some of that could be because these programs don’t have the FCS teams to beat up and pad stats at the start of the year. I think Baylor’s run defense is good enough to keep this one within two touchdowns.
Texas A&M at South Carolina (+10) – My pick is South Carolina Gamecocks
The Aggies have been able to win shoot-outs this year and their only blemish was a 52-24 loss at Alabama. They haven’t been very good against the spread (2-3 ATS) and haven’t been able to stretch out wins large enough to cover. South Carolina hasn’t been very good outright, but their defense is the reason why they are 3-1-1 against the spread this year. They do allow more points than they should, but they have ballhawks that take risky paths to the ball. I could be in the minority with this pick, but I have to take the points.
Houston at Cincinnati (-13.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bearcats
Houston has a tall task ahead of them this week. They haven’t came to play against top teams, but have been able to beat teams like Tulane and Tulsa. Their defense is a real issue for the Cougars. Teams have scored at least 40 points against them in four of their six teams this season. I expect a big game from Cincinnati QB Desmond Riddler, who is coming off a strong performance in their 49-10 win over Memphis last week.
QUICK HITS
San Jose State at San Diego State (-9.5) – My pick is SDSU
Nebraska at Northwestern (-3.5) – My pick is Northwestern
South Florida at Memphis (-18) – My pick is Memphis
Kansas at Oklahoma (-38) – My pick is Oklahoma
Minnesota at Illinois (+7) – My pick is Minnesota
South Alabama at Coastal Carolina (-18) – My pick is Coastal Carolina
Vanderbilt at Mississippi State (-19.5) – My pick is Vanderbilt
Maryland at Penn State (-25) – My pick is Maryland
Oklahoma State at Kansas State (+12.5) – My pick is Kansas State
West Virginia at Texas (-6.5) – My pick is Texas
BONUS PICKS!
UL-Monroe at Georgia State (-18) – My pick is Georgia State
Appalachian State at Texas State (+17.5) – My pick is App State
Texas-San Antonio at Rice (-4) – My pick is Rice
Western Kentucky at Florida Atlantic (-6.5) – My pick is FAU
Tulane at East Carolina (+5) – My pick is East Carolina
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 86-87-1
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.