I went 12-10-1 with my college football picks last week.
The SEC kicked off last week and there were some teams that separated themselves from the pack. Mississippi State upset LSU in their debut. MSU head coach Mike Leach made the rest of the SEC aware that his air raid offense can do some damage in the conference.
The marquee game of the week is Auburn versus Georgia. The winner could jump into the top-three in the rankings.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 5 of the 2020-21 NCAA Football season (October 3rd, 2020).
South Carolina at Florida (-17.5) – My pick is Florida Gators
The Gators are coming off an impressive 51-35 win over Ole Miss. Florida QB Kyle Trask passed for six touchdowns and didn’t thrown any interception. The Gators defense gave up a couple late scores to make this game closer than it really was on Saturday. South Carolina lost their opener to Tennessee 31-27. Gamecocks new head coach Mike Bobo brought QB Collin Hill with him over from Colorado State. He threw for 290 yards and was comfortable in the offense. This could be very close to the spread, but Florida’s offense is among the best in the nation…let’s just hope the Gators don’t allow scoring late in the fourth quarter again.
North Carolina at Boston College (+13.5) – My pick is North Carolina Tar Heels
Both teams come into this game undefeated on the year. UNC had an easy time in their opener against Syracuse and Boston College have notched wins over Duke and Texas State (a game that was way closer than it should have been). It’s clear that BC doesn’t have the rushing attack it had a year ago with A.J. Dillon. They have been outgained on the ground in both games. UNC QB Sam Howell didn’t have a good game against Syracuse. He started out rusty, but started to move the ball much better late in the game. They were able to score 21 points in the fourth quarter. It’s also clear that UNC has a redzone threat in RB Javonte Williams. He’s a big back and already has three touchdowns that were all inside the six-yard line. Howell should rebound and show that he might be the best sophomore quarterback in the nation.
Auburn at Georgia (-7) – My pick is Auburn Tigers
This is the biggest game of the weekend. Both of the teams are in the top-ten and have high aspirations. The Tigers are coming off a 29-13 win at home against Kentucky and the Bulldogs blew out Arkansas 37-10. Auburn’s defense should be the biggest factor in this game. If Auburn can get an early lead, Georgia will struggle to answer. I know Georgia QB Stetson Bennett looked good in their opener, but I like Auburn in this game. I’m taking the points on Saturday.
Texas A&M at Alabama (-17.5) – My pick is Alabama Crimson Tide
It feels like A&M QB Kellen Mond has been playing college football for a decade. He had a lot of hype around him when the Aggies landed him as a recruit. He has been an above average quarterback in the SEC, but had had at least one huge game a season. He had a strong performance against Alabama last year. The Tide still won the game 47-28, but Mond had an effort worth hanging his hat on. Alabama’s team isn’t as experienced as the squad they had a year ago, but the team is still loaded with future NFL talent. Alabama has beaten A&M by over 20 points every year since 2017. The Tide should cover this spread at home.
Virginia Tech at Duke (+10.5) – My pick is Virginia Tech Hokies
Duke is already 0-3 on the season and head coach David Cutcliffe finds himself on the hot seat. He really needs a win or two this month. He has a long battle ahead of him this Saturday against Virginia Tech. The Hokies defense is the stronger side of their game. I expect a big game from Hokies LB Rayshard Ashby. They will need a strong performance from him as starting QB Braxton Burmeister could miss the game with a hand injury. Backup QB Quincy Patterson relieved him last week and threw two touchdowns in just six total pass attempts. He also added 47 rushing yards. Patterson should be up for the task if Burmeister can’t go. I’m taking the Hokies to cover on the road.
Arkansas at Mississippi State (-18) – My pick is Mississippi State Bulldogs
MSU head coach Mike Leach was victorious in his SEC debut in a 44-34 win at LSU. Stanford-transfer QB K.J. Costello threw 60 times and threw for 623 yards with five touchdown passes. He wasn’t perfect in the game as he threw two interceptions. The Razorbacks are coming off a 37-10 loss at home against Georgia. They are going to have a tough year as their talent isn’t really up the level of the SEC right now. I’m taking Mississippi State to cover at home.
Oklahoma at Iowa State (+7) – My pick is Oklahoma Sooners
Both of these teams have gotten caught looking over opponents this year. Iowa State lost to UL-Lafayette in their first game and OU are coming off a 38-35 loss at home to Kansas State. Both teams clearly struggle on the defensive side of the ball. Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler has a lot of talent, but he threw three interceptions against KSU. I don’t see the Cyclones putting enough pressure on the young quarterback to make a huge difference in the passing game. The Sooners are the better team and should cover this game in Ames.
Ole Miss at Kentucky (-6) – My pick is Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss lost to Florida last week, but their offense made a few nice plays that impressed me. Rebels QB Matt Corral belongs in the SEC and will be a factor against any team in the conference. Kentucky will have their hands full with Corral. Their defense didn’t look good in their loss to Auburn. Kentucky might be the better overall team, but their defense are prone to big plays. If the Rebels can break a few tackles, this game could be interesting. I’m taking the points in this game.
South Florida at Cincinnati (-22) – My pick is Cincinnati Bearcats
South Florida comes into this game with a 1-1 record (1-1 ATS). Their win was a gimme game at home versus Citadel. They followed that up with an embarrassing 52-0 loss at Notre Dame. Cincinnati comes into this game 2-0 (1-1 ATS). They haven’t faced stiff competition in those games as they beat Austin Peay and Army (who some think are underrated). South Florida’s offense is a work in progress. The Bearcats should be able to hold the Bulls and cover at home.
TCU at Texas (-11.5) – My pick is Texas Longhorns
TCU’s defense used to be their calling card, but that hasn’t been the case in recent years. They allowed Iowa State to move the ball at-will. TCU needed more than LB Garrett Wallow to show up. Texas is coming off an overtime win against Texas Tech. That game was closer than many expected, but QB Sam Ehlinger put the team on his back and threw five touchdown passes and one rushing touchdown. I can’t say that the Longhorns have a good defense because it’s clear that they have their own issues. The Longhorns will rebound from their close game last week with a win and a cover at home against the Horned Frogs.
QUICK HITS
Missouri at Tennessee (-11.5) – My pick is Tennessee
Baylor at West Virginia (+3) – My pick is Baylor
Louisiana Tech at BYU (-24) – My pick is BYU
East Carolina at Georgia State (-1) – My pick is East Carolina
NC State at Pittsburgh (-14) – My pick is Pitt
Texas Tech at Kansas State (-2.5) – My pick is Kansas State
Memphis at SMU (+2.5) – My pick is SMU
LSU at Vanderbilt (+20.5) – My pick is LSU
Tulsa at UCF (-21.5) – My pick is UCF
Virginia at Clemson (-28) – My pick is Clemson
BONUS PICKS!
Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina (+3) – My pick is Coastal Carolina
Texas-San Antonio at UAB (-20.5) – My pick is UTSA
Navy at Air Force (+7) – My pick is Air Force
Southern Miss at North Texas (-1.5) – My pick is North Texas
Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee (+7) – My pick is Western Kentucky
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 28-23-1
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.