I went 9-6 with my college football picks last week.
It is starting to feel like college football has returned. The SEC officially kicks off their schedule this week.
LSU lost a lot of talent to the NFL following their National Championship win. Did they recruit enough talent for another run at the trophy?
We will see the debut of a few new head coaches this week. Can Mississippi State’s Mike Leach implement his air raid offense and have success Day 1 in the SEC?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 4 of the 2020-21 NCAA Football season (September 26th, 2020).
Texas at Texas Tech (+18) – My pick is Texas Longhorns
Longhorns QB Sam Ehlinger started the year off by torching UTEP and throwing 426 yards in a 59-3 win. He’s always been good, but he’s been overshadowed by quarterbacks on better teams. The senior is motivated and will be airing it out a lot this season. Texas Tech had to hold off Houston Baptist late in the fourth to squeak out a two-point victory. If the Red Raiders are having trouble with HBU, they are really going to struggle against Texas. I’m taking the Longhorns to cover in Lubbock.
Florida State at Miami (FL) (-11) – My pick is Miami Hurricanes
Florida State opened the year with a three-point loss to Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are a bad team and FSU QB James Blackman struggled to move the ball. He’s such a below average ACC starting quarterback. He has been underwhelming since his freshman year. The Hurricanes are 2-0 outright and have covered both of their games. QB D’Eriq King didn’t impress me against UAB, but he showed why he was such a coveted transfer against Louisville. He threw for 325 yards with three touchdowns. Miami RB Cam’ron Harris has put together back-to-back 134-yard games. He is averaging ten yards per carry on the year. The Hurricanes should cover at home against the lowly Seminoles.
West Virginia at Oklahoma State (-7.5) – My pick is West Virginia Mountaineers
This will be the Mountaineers first test of the season after beating Eastern Kentucky 56-19 two weeks ago to open the year. You can’t really take away much from that game other than they looked better than they did last year. This is Neal Brown’s second year as head coach and there’s a lot to like about QB Jarret Doege. The Mountaineers looked like a solid Big 12 team when he was playing well last year. Oklahoma State opened up with a 16-7 win at home against Tulsa. The Cowboys actually trailed until the fourth quarter of the game. Their main issue appears to be at quarterback this year. QB Spencer Sanders injured his ankle in that game and he’s currently in a walking boot. Head coach Mike Gundy said that he will return to practice later this week, but he will most likely be limited if he plays on Saturday. The Cowboys will need a huge game from RB Chuba Hubbard if they have any shot to cover against the Mountaineers. I’m taking the points in this one.
Mississippi State at LSU (-16.5) – My pick is Mississippi State Bulldogs
LSU is coming off a National Championship win and they had to replace a ton of talent that are now playing on Sundays. QB Myles Brennan is the starter and a lot of people think he could have success right away. LSU’s defense had to replace a lot of guys as well, but they couldn’t do it in just one year. They will be much weaker on that side of the ball this year. Mississippi State are coming off a 6-7 record and have a new face at quarterback, Stanford-transfer KJ Costello…oh, and they hired head coach Mike Leach this offseason, so expect a lot of passing from the Bulldogs going forward. I really liked Costello back in 2018. He threw for 3,540 yards and had a 29/11 TD-Int ratio that year. He dealt with injuries last year and never really got on track, so he decided to transfer after the season. He will have some talent at receiver as MSU hit the transfer portal hard there. This game should be an interesting one. I think Leach has a lot of interesting pieces that fit in his offense right away. LSU will most likely win, but the Bulldogs will keep this one closer than expected, so I’m taking the points.
Alabama at Missouri (+27) – My pick is Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama is always replacing talent since the first round of the NFL draft tends to have a handful of Crimson Tide year after year. They have QB Mac Jones back after he had success filling in for injured QB Tua Tagovailoa last year. They also have RB Najee Harris returning, who led the team in rushing in 2019. Jones will be passing to just about an entirely new receiving corps as most were drafted. Missouri was awful late last year and due to the pandemic, they didn’t get in the same level of practice as a normal offseason. The Tide have consistently beaten up on the lower-tier SEC teams in the past and this should be a successful opener for Alabama. I’m taking the Crimson Tide to cover.
NC State at Virginia Tech (-7) – My pick is Virginia Tech Hokies
The Wolfpack are coming off an upset win over Wake Forest to open the year. They hit the running game hard with running backs Ricky Person Jr. and Zonovan Knight nearly hitting the century mark each. NC State had a total of 270 rushing yards on 49 attempts in the win. This will be Virginia Tech’s first game of the season. They finished the year 8-5 and appeared in the Belk Bowl. QB Hendon Hooker will look to improve on his 2019 season. They return a lot of guys on offense, so he should have a lot more success. The Hokies defense will be the reason they win or lose this season. If they can get a big year from LB Rayshard Ashby, the Hokies will win more than eight games. VT were very good against the run last year and their front-seven will be trouble for NC State. I’m taking the Hokies to cover at home.
Kentucky at Auburn (-7.5) – My pick is Auburn Tigers
Kentucky has some questions at quarterback after losing QB/WR Lynn Bowden Jr. to the NFL. They still have QB Terry Wilson, who started for the Wildcats before getting injured early last year. He is expected to be the starter for them this year. Kentucky also has Auburn-transfer QB Joey Gatewood on the roster, but they are unsure if he will be cleared by the SEC in time for the game on Saturday. The Wildcats should have one of the best offensive lines in the SEC. Running backs Asim Rose and Kavosiey Smoke (I love his name) should have some big holes to run through this year. Auburn returns QB Bo Nix, who had an excellent freshman year. He won’t be able to lean on his defense as much this year as they just aren’t as deep. When Kentucky had Wilson as their starting QB, they weren’t very explosive on offense. He played a ‘game manager’ role and this was when Kentucky was just starting to be competitive against some of the better SEC teams. I think they crossed a threshold last year and they needed the athleticism of Bowden to compete. Kentucky will try to run the ball a lot this year and will have some success, but I worry they are missing a playmaker that will make their offense less one-dimensional. I think Nix will get the win to start the year and cover at home.
Kansas State at Oklahoma (-28) – My pick is Kansas State Wildcats
Kansas State is coming off a rather disappointing upset loss to Arkansas State. KSU QB Skylar Thompson couldn’t get drives going and failed on third down over and over again. The Wildcats were a 15.5-point favorite and lost 35-31. The Sooners started the season with a 48-0 win against Missouri State. OU QB Spencer Rattler threw four touchdowns, all in the first-half. The redshirt freshman was the #1 pro-style quarterback in his recruiting class. There’s not much more to glean from Oklahoma’s opener. Kansas State isn’t as bad as the team that showed up against Arkansas State. I watched enough of Thompson last year to know that he can compete against Big 12 teams. I’m going to chalk up that game as an aberration. Kansas State got caught overlooking the Red Wolves and paid the price. They won’t overlook Oklahoma and should keep this within 28 points. I’m taking the points in this one.
Florida at Ole Miss (+13.5) – My pick is Florida Gators
Florida had a rebound season in 2019 by winning 11 games. QB Kyle Trask didn’t exactly come out of nowhere, but he was prepared when his number was called last year. He nearly passed for 3,000 yards and threw 25 touchdown passes. Florida head coach Dan Mullen said that he would like to run the ball more this year, but that could go sideways if RB Dameon Pierce can’t perform as expected. Trask could be asked to run the ball more himself. Ole Miss hired new head coach Lane Kiffin in hopes of winning more than four games this year. He had limited success at Tennessee and USC in his short stints as head coach. He spent the last couple years at Florida Atlantic. Kiffin has some solid pieces already in place in Oxford. The Rebels were a very good rushing team and QB John Rhys Plumlee has some wheels on him. They will need to pass the more this year if they want to improve on their win total. Florida is expected to be one of the best teams in the country this year. Ole Miss needs a year or two to get the right players in for Kiffin to compete in the SEC. I’m taking the Gators to cover in Oxford.
Georgia Tech at Syracuse (+8) – My pick is Syracuse Orange
Both of these teams have seen better days. The Yellow Jackets started the year with an upset win over Florida State, but followed that with a blowout loss at home to UCF. Syracuse is winless in two tries this year, both on the road. On the bright side, they were able to keep last week’s 21-10 loss at Pitt within the point spread of +21. These two teams are probably the bottom of the barrel in the ACC. Georgia Tech appears to have found their quarterback of the future in Jeff Sims, but the learning curve has been harsh. He will need to limit his turnovers if he wants his team to be competitive. This game could be ugly on offense for both teams. Syracuse does have the better defense, but you couldn’t pay me to sit down and watch this game live. I have to take the points in this one.
QUICK HITS
Georgia Southern at UL Lafayette (-14) – My pick is Georgia Southern
UCF at East Carolina (+27) – My pick is UCF
Kansas at Baylor (-17.5) – My pick is Baylor
Tennessee at South Carolina (+3.5) – My pick is South Carolina
South Florida at Florida Atlantic (-3.5) – My pick is FAU
Duke at Virginia (-6) – My pick is Virginia
Iowa State at TCU (+2.5) – My pick is TCU
UAB at South Alabama (+6) – My pick is South Alabama
Louisville at Pittsburgh (-3) – My pick is Pitt
Texas State at Boston College (-17.5) – My pick is Boston College
BONUS PICKS!
Tulsa at Arkansas State (-2.5) – My pick is Tulsa
UTEP at UL Monroe (-9.5) – My pick is UTEP
Army at Cincinnati (-13.5) – My pick is Army
Florida International at Liberty (-6.5) – My pick is Liberty
Georgia State at Charlotte (+2.5) – My pick is Georgia State
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 16-13-0
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.