I went 16-8-1 against the spread with my college football picks last week.
I’ve been doing really well with my college football picks lately, which makes up for the last two stinker weeks with my NFL picks.
There are still a couple undefeated teams out there that could really shake up the College Football Playoff. Minnesota and Baylor are definitely two teams no one thought would be undefeated at this point in the season.
Can Minnesota survive against Iowa to stay unbeaten?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 12 of the 2019-20 NCAA Football season (November 16th, 2019). We also pick some smaller conference games.
Wisconsin at Nebraska (+14.5) – My pick is Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin is coming into this game limping. They are 1-2 outright in their last three games and failed to cover any of those point spreads. They were able to beat Iowa last week, but it was a super close game. Badgers RB Jonathan Taylor got back on track with 250 rushing yards. Nebraska is struggling outright and have only covered one point spread all season. They are only 1-8 against the spread, which is very hard to do. Wisconsin would normally be a 20+ favorite, but due to their recent struggles, you’re getting some value here. The Badgers should cover against the Cornhuskers.
Indiana at Penn State (-14.5) – My pick is Indiana Hoosiers
Penn State is coming off an upset loss to Minnesota. It was their first loss of the season. Penn State QB Sean Clifford was the reason they took the loss as he threw three interceptions last Saturday. He was trying to force too many passes and that’s not exactly his role on the team. Indiana is on a four-game winning streak, but they lost QB Michael Penix Jr. for the season (collarbone). Hoosiers will start QB Peyton Ramsey, who has a history of starting over the last three seasons. Those guys has split playing time this year. Ramsey is a talented quarterback that threw a few too many interceptions last year, but has only thrown three in 157 passing attempts this year. As long as Ramsey can get the ball to WR Whop Philyor, they will keep this game close, so I’m taking the points.
Florida at Missouri (+7) – My pick is Florida Gators
After starting the season on a high note, Missouri QB Kelly Bryant has been below average since early-October. He missed last game due to a hamstring injury, but is expected to play this Saturday against Florida. The Gators weren’t able to beat Georgia or LSU, but they have taken care of teams they were supposed to beat. Florida QB Kyle Trask has a little too much ‘gunslinger’ in him, but as long as he isn’t trying to throw balls into small windows, he’s a very good quarterback. I don’t like Missouri’s pass defense and as long as Trask can limit his turnovers, the Gators should cover this game in Columbia, Missouri.
Alabama at Mississippi State (+17.5) – My pick is Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama is coming off a loss to LSU. They got QB Tua Tagovailoa back from injury and shined in that game, but Alabama’s defense let him down. He lit up the box score, but it was clear that he wasn’t 100%. He didn’t have as much zip on the ball and he was rusty with his accuracy. He is still getting treatment on his ankle and he’s now listed as a game-time decision. I think he’ll play since head coach Nick Saban said he made a lot of progress in practice today. If the Tide can stop the run against Mississippi State, they should easily cover this game. I think they will be able to do that since they don’t have to worry much about the arm of QB Tommy Stevens. I’m taking the Tide to cover on the road.
Michigan State at Michigan (-13) – My pick is Michigan Wolverines
Michigan State is having a rough year. They are 4-5 outright and are 2-7 against the spread. The Spartans are on a four-game losing streak and are coming off a 37-34 loss at home to Illinois. The Spartans will still make a bowl game due to having Rutgers and Maryland left on their schedule, but they don’t stand much chance against the Wolverines on Saturday. Michigan is improving every week and are undefeated at home this year. The Wolverines should cover at home.
Navy at Notre Dame (-7) – My pick is Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame got back on track last week after a few underwhelming games in a row. QB Ian Book was the star against Duke with his arm and his legs. Navy is having a very good year, but they have only faced one high-level team this year (Memphis). Notre Dame probably should be a 10.5 or greater favorite in this game, but due to Navy’s inflated record and Notre Dame’s recent close games, you’re getting some value. I’m taking the Irish to cover at home on Saturday.
Texas at Iowa State (-7) – My pick is Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State is a sleeper team in the Big 12. It helps that they have historically been a pretty bad team, so they are often given a little extra value against public teams like Texas. Iowa State QB Brock Purdy nearly knocked off Oklahoma last week, but his two-point attempt failed. They are a good home team and will push Texas on Saturday. Texas is a bit overrated in my eyes. They have had a string of losses and close wins (against the worst Big 12 teams) since early October. If the Cyclones can get an early lead on the Longhorns, I think they can get a cover at home.
Minnesota at Iowa (-3) – My pick is Minnesota Golden Gophers
Minnesota stayed unbeaten after beating Penn State last week. QB Tanner Morgan was able to get the ball to his star wide receivers early and often. WR Rashod Bateman had his best game of his career with 203 receiving yards and a touchdown. Iowa is coming off a close loss to Wisconsin. Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor ran all over them and that was the difference in the game. Iowa may have a hard time covering Minnesota’s receivers. They’ve allowed some big games to talented receivers this season. Purdue WR David Bell had a 197-yard game against Iowa a couple weeks ago. The Hawkeyes defense may not be good enough to end Minnesota’s perfect season. I have to take the points in this game.
Oklahoma at Baylor (+10) – My pick is Baylor Bears
Oklahoma started the year off with huge offensive outputs and was blowing out opponents by 25+ points per game. That changed around the time of the Red River Rivalry game. They’ve had close games against Texas and Iowa State, and lost to Kansas State. Their defense is really collapsing right now. Baylor is perfect on the year, but they’ve spent all year playing in close games. They’ve been blamed for playing down to some lesser opponents, but they’ve yet to fail against the best teams in the Big 12. Baylor QB Charlie Brewer is accurate and rarely puts his team in a bad position. He has only thrown interceptions in just two games this season. Both of those games were won by Baylor in overtime. I think they stick around in this game and do what they’ve done all year. I don’t know if they’ll win, but they should keep it close, so I’m taking the points.
Central Michigan at Ball State (-2.5) – My pick is Central Michigan Chippewas
This is where we pick a game between smaller conference teams. Central Michigan smoked a solid Northern Illinois team last week. The Chippewas had 615 total yards and won 48-10. They covered the point spread by nearly 40 extra points. Ball State had a stretch in October where they were playing as good as any team in the MAC. They were then dominated by Ohio, followed by a close loss to Western Michigan last weekend. Defenses have been able to stop QB Drew Plitt and limit RB Caleb Huntley. Central Michigan looked too good last week, so I’m taking the points.
QUICK HITS
Louisiana Tech at Marshall (-4.5) – My pick is La Tech
TCU at Texas Tech (+3) – My pick is TCU
Troy at Texas State (+7) – My pick is Troy
Coastal Carolina at Arkansas State (-12.5) – My pick is Coastal Carolina
Ohio State at Rutgers (+52.5) – My pick is Ohio State
Memphis at Houston (+10.5) – My pick is Memphis
Wyoming at Utah State (-5.5) – My pick is Wyoming
Rice at Middle Tennessee (-14.5) – My pick is Middle Tennessee
Southern Miss at Texas-San Antonio (+17) – My pick is UTSA
Cincinnati at South Florida (+14) – My pick is Cincinnati
BONUS PICKS!
UL Lafayette at South Alabama (+28) – My pick is UL Lafayette
Air Force at Colorado State (+10.5) – My pick is Colorado State
Arizona State at Oregon State (+3) – My pick is Arizona State
UCLA at Utah (-21.5) – My pick is UCLA
Louisville at NC State (+4) – My pick is Louisville
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 152-117-7
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.