I went 16-8-1 against the spread with my college football picks last week.
This could be the first week of the college football season that the weather could affect many games. It’s supposed to be cold and windy throughout the Midwest and Northeast this weekend. Please keep an eye on weather reports that could change the possible handicapping of games.
Will LSU vs Alabama be a shoot-out?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 11 of the 2019-20 NCAA Football season (November 9th, 2019). We also pick some smaller conference games.
Baylor at TCU (+2.5) – My pick is Baylor Bears
Baylor survived a trap game and barely squeaked out a win against West Virginia. They’ve mostly played down to their opponents at times this season, but they’ve always showed up in big games. They are 8-0 outright and 4-4 against the spread, because they’ve struggled to cover large point spreads. TCU is another team that has struggled against the spread (3-5 ATS) and are 1-3 against the spread in their last four games. TCU is choking down the stretch against top-tier Big 12 teams. As long as Baylor QB Charlie Brewer is safe with the ball, I think Baylor covers on the road.
Penn State at Minnesota (+6.5) – My pick is Penn State Nittany Lions
This is an interesting game. Both teams come into this game undefeated, but Minnesota hasn’t beaten any of the better teams in the Big Ten. They have ran through teams like Rutgers, Maryland and Illinois. I’m not saying that they are bad, but I’m not sure if they are on the same level as teams like Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan or even Iowa. Minnesota brings a dynamic running game and a solid defense. That will play well no matter who they play, but can they run the ball against a team like Penn State? The upperclassmen running backs on Minnesota haven’t had much success against the top-half of the conference in the past. I believe Penn State will go into Minnesota and win by more than a touchdown.
Stanford at Colorado (+3.5) – My pick is Stanford Cardinal
Colorado QB Steven Montez seems to always play really well in September, then the Pac-12 conference schedule ruins it. Colorado is 1-5 in the Pac-12 (2-4 ATS) and Montez has been awful in all but one game against USC (they still lost). Stanford has dealt with injuries all season and it appears that QB K.J. Costello is finally healthy. The Cardinal is a different team when he’s in the game. He is coming off a three-touchdown game against Arizona in their 41-31 win. Colorado is in a free-fall and I’m taking the Cardinal to cover on the road.
LSU at Alabama (-6.5) – My pick is LSU Tigers
LSU was expected to be good this season, but I don’t think anyone expected them to be undefeated at this point in the year. QB Joe Burrow has been damn great and comes up huge in big games. Alabama is where everyone expected them to be, but their defense hasn’t been overly-dominant like in year’s past. They haven’t been consistently limiting teams to single-digits on the scoreboard. Alabama does have good news as it looks like they will get QB Tua Tagovailoa back for this game. I think this could almost be a shoot-out. I have to take the points in this one.
Illinois at Michigan State (-14.5) – My pick is Illinois Fighting Illini
I can’t remember the last time Illinois had more wins than Michigan State at this point in the season. Illinois is 5-4 right now and are on a three-game winning streak. They have been on a roll since upsetting Wisconsin in mid-October. Michigan State is 4-4 and have lost three games in a row, but those were against very good Big Ten teams. The Spartans have also lost four-straight games against the spread. Michigan State may very well beat Illinois in East Lansing, but that extra half-point is daunting. I think they will come up short in the cover, so I’m taking the points.
Kansas State at Texas (-7) – My pick is Kansas State Wildcats
Texas QB Sam Ehlinger is coming off his worst game of the year. The junior threw four interceptions in a 37-27 loss at TCU. The Longhorns are 1-3 ATS when he throws at least one interception. I wasn’t on the Kansas State bandwagon until they beat Oklahoma. They made Oklahoma QB Jalen Hurts play like he was back on Alabama. They just clamped him up. If the defense plays at that level, they could actually beat Texas, but I’m not sure they will get the win…but they should keep this close enough to win against the spread. I’m taking the points in this game.
Iowa at Wisconsin (-9.5) – My pick is Iowa Hawkeyes
I would put Iowa and Wisconsin on the same tier in the Big Ten. Iowa are on a two-game winning streak after surviving a rough stretch in early October. Wisconsin have lost two-straight and one of them was a 38-7 loss at Ohio State. I chalked up the loss to Illinois the week before as a trap game. I don’t think Wisconsin is that much better than Iowa and the Hawkeyes defense have mostly done its job against other Big Ten teams. The Badgers may win this game outright, but I think the Hawkeyes keeps this within the spread, so I’m taking the points.
Notre Dame at Duke (+8) – My pick is Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame is coming off two bad games in a row. They were first spanked by Michigan and then they needed a late score to beat Virginia Tech last week. Notre Dame QB Ian Book was molested by Michigan and was inaccurate as hell in that game. He bounced back against the Hokies, but still made a couple costly interceptions. The Irish should fare much better against Duke, whose defense is nowhere near what it was earlier in the year. I expect a big game from Irish RB Tony Jones Jr., who didn’t play against the Hokies due to injury. They missed him and he will help put Notre Dame over the edge and cover on the road.
Florida State at Boston College (-2) – My pick is Boston College Eagles
Florida State fired head coach Willie Taggart after losing to Miami on October 29th. He was there for less than two seasons. Odell Haggins is the interim head coach, a role he also served as after Jimbo Fisher left for the Texas A&M head coaching job. Boston College is a physical team and loves to run the ball. They will run the ball 50+ times a game. Florida State will have a hard time stopping BC running back AJ Dillon. He’s been running all over the ACC and I don’t see Florida State being much of an obstacle. I’m taking Boston College to cover at home.
San Jose State at Hawaii (-7.5) – My pick is San Jose State Spartans
This is where we pick a game between smaller conference teams. I usually favor MAC teams in this section, but a lot of those games are earlier in the week, so I am traveling out West. San Jose State has been an underrated team all year. They are only 4-5 outright on the year, but they are 5-3-1 against the spread. Hawaii hasn’t been taking care of business at home. They have lost and failed to cover their last two home games. Hawaii is supposed to have a huge home-field advantage due to the travel, but it hasn’t worked in their favor. They will also have a hard time defending against San Jose State QB Josh Love, who has thrown for more than 400 yards in a game on four occasions this year. I’m taking the points.
QUICK HITS
Temple at South Florida (+1.5) – My pick is Temple
Maryland at Ohio State (-43) – My pick is Ohio State
UT-San Antonio at Old Dominion (-3.5) – My pick is UTSA
Charlotte at UTEP (+13.5) – My pick is Charlotte
Louisville at Miami (FL) (-6.5) – My pick is Louisville
UAB at Southern Miss (-4.5) – My pick is Southern Miss
Georgia Southern at Troy (+3) – My pick is Georgia Southern
Wake Forest at Virginia Tech (+2.5) – My pick is Virginia Tech
North Texas at Louisiana Tech (-5.5) – My pick is La Tech
Georgia State at UL-Monroe (+2.5) – My pick is Georgia State
BONUS PICKS!
Florida International at Florida Atlantic (-10) – My pick is FAU
Utah State at Fresno State (-6) – My pick is Fresno State
Nevada at San Diego State (-17.5) – My pick is San Diego State
Wyoming at Boise State (-13) – My pick is Wyoming
Texas Tech at West Virginia (+2.5) – My pick is Texas Tech
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 136-109-6
Follow us on Twitter @Sweetbob & ‘LIKE’ us on Facebook!
About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.